Selected Results
2022-12-20
Overview:
All models below were executed with impulse indicator saturation
(IIS) enabled and a block size of 20. In order to avoid endless output,
where reasonable, we present only the model specifications with GDP,
population, weather controls, all three ETS phase dummies (2005, 2008,
2013) and ETS price, a p-value threshold of 0.01, and spanning
1990-2021.
Country sample: EU-15 (excluding Luxembourg), United States,
Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Switzerland
Emissions: Levels
w. ETS price
AR = 0
Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Mon Dec 5 20:07:09 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 3.5033e-01 7.0175e-01 0.4992 0.6178237
lpop -4.2696e-01 2.3726e-01 -1.7995 0.0724822 .
lgdp_wb_sq -1.9617e-03 1.3801e-02 -0.1421 0.8870196
hdd 2.0172e-04 2.6888e-05 7.5023 2.517e-13 ***
cdd 3.2009e-04 7.6438e-05 4.1876 3.280e-05 ***
EU_ETS_05 -8.2756e-02 4.8718e-02 -1.6987 0.0899413 .
EU_ETS_08 -1.9898e-01 9.5520e-02 -2.0832 0.0376956 *
EU_ETS_13 6.1017e-02 8.3801e-02 0.7281 0.4668493
EU_ETS_05:ets_price -1.3391e-03 2.8507e-03 -0.4697 0.6387286
EU_ETS_08:ets_price 7.8598e-03 6.7708e-03 1.1608 0.2462055
EU_ETS_13:ets_price -1.0512e-02 6.2329e-03 -1.6865 0.0922606 .
idAustria -2.7991e+00 1.6730e-01 -16.7304 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -1.9446e+00 1.1842e-01 -16.4208 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada -6.6822e-01 1.3698e-01 -4.8782 1.402e-06 ***
idDenmark -2.0097e+00 2.4305e-01 -8.2687 1.013e-15 ***
idFinland -2.5865e+00 2.5368e-01 -10.1959 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance -1.0865e+00 2.3434e-01 -4.6367 4.423e-06 ***
idGermany 8.8589e-01 2.8509e-01 3.1074 0.0019845 **
idGreece -1.3908e+00 8.8390e-02 -15.7350 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -2.7983e+00 2.7952e-01 -10.0109 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly 3.0947e-02 2.2314e-01 0.1387 0.8897479
idJapan 1.2084e+00 3.5788e-01 3.3765 0.0007858 ***
idNetherlands -1.2733e+00 8.0256e-02 -15.8657 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -3.6836e+00 2.8249e-01 -13.0397 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -1.8917e+00 9.3326e-02 -20.2703 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -4.7540e-01 1.8387e-01 -2.5855 0.0099779 **
idSweden -3.2643e+00 1.6111e-01 -20.2612 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -4.7517e+00 2.1695e-01 -21.9022 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 4.7415e-01 2.3079e-01 2.0544 0.0404021 *
idUnitedStates 2.8980e+00 4.8759e-01 5.9435 4.943e-09 ***
time1990 1.0536e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0344 0.3014219
time1991 1.0551e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0358 0.3007475
time1992 1.0582e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0389 0.2993097
time1993 1.0523e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0331 0.3020276
time1994 1.0553e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0360 0.3006455
time1995 1.0575e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0382 0.2996463
time1996 1.0583e+01 1.0185e+01 1.0391 0.2992224
time1997 1.0609e+01 1.0183e+01 1.0418 0.2979724
time1998 1.0641e+01 1.0182e+01 1.0451 0.2964396
time1999 1.0650e+01 1.0181e+01 1.0460 0.2960010
time2000 1.0661e+01 1.0179e+01 1.0473 0.2954038
time2001 1.0668e+01 1.0179e+01 1.0481 0.2950356
time2002 1.0717e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0530 0.2928174
time2003 1.0708e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0521 0.2932279
time2004 1.0719e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0533 0.2926797
time2005 1.0801e+01 1.0179e+01 1.0611 0.2891125
time2006 1.0810e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0622 0.2886277
time2007 1.0808e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0620 0.2886924
time2008 1.0804e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0616 0.2888618
time2009 1.0762e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0573 0.2908349
time2010 1.0717e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0530 0.2927967
time2011 1.0778e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0590 0.2900394
time2012 1.0738e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0551 0.2918609
time2013 1.0687e+01 1.0176e+01 1.0501 0.2941172
time2014 1.0661e+01 1.0176e+01 1.0476 0.2952758
time2015 1.0628e+01 1.0175e+01 1.0445 0.2967150
time2016 1.0600e+01 1.0175e+01 1.0417 0.2979935
time2017 1.0613e+01 1.0174e+01 1.0432 0.2973346
time2018 1.0533e+01 1.0173e+01 1.0354 0.3009537
time2019 1.0491e+01 1.0173e+01 1.0312 0.3028786
time2020 1.0439e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0258 0.3054566
time2021 1.0511e+01 1.0174e+01 1.0331 0.3020008
iis202 -2.7240e-01 9.7134e-02 -2.8044 0.0052180 **
iis590 -4.2087e-01 9.7352e-02 -4.3232 1.824e-05 ***
iis591 -4.5225e-01 9.7277e-02 -4.6491 4.174e-06 ***
iis592 -3.2237e-01 9.8087e-02 -3.2865 0.0010787 **
fesisCanada.2005 -1.7280e-01 3.8816e-02 -4.4518 1.031e-05 ***
fesisUnitedStates.2005 -1.8291e-01 4.9683e-02 -3.6815 0.0002546 ***
fesisAustria.2008 9.4961e-02 3.6722e-02 2.5859 0.0099664 **
fesisAustria.2018 2.3333e-01 5.4792e-02 4.2585 2.418e-05 ***
fesisBelgium.2001 -2.0553e-01 3.4637e-02 -5.9338 5.224e-09 ***
fesisSwitzerland.2018 2.7474e-01 5.3627e-02 5.1231 4.159e-07 ***
fesisGermany.2012 1.0894e-01 4.1379e-02 2.6329 0.0087038 **
fesisDenmark.1999 -3.6458e-01 4.0774e-02 -8.9415 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisDenmark.2011 -3.6052e-01 4.3748e-02 -8.2408 1.247e-15 ***
fesisSpain.1999 1.6962e-01 3.8862e-02 4.3648 1.519e-05 ***
fesisFrance.2005 1.7933e-01 3.5125e-02 5.1054 4.547e-07 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.0796e-01 4.8284e-02 -4.3071 1.958e-05 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.3120e-01 4.4787e-02 -9.6278 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisNetherlands.1995 1.2740e-01 4.6171e-02 2.7594 0.0059833 **
fesisNetherlands.2014 3.0050e-01 3.9408e-02 7.6253 1.068e-13 ***
fesisSweden.2016 2.1876e-01 4.3013e-02 5.0860 5.016e-07 ***
fesisJapan.2012 2.7668e-01 4.6651e-02 5.9309 5.313e-09 ***
fesisAustralia.1999 1.5738e-01 4.2462e-02 3.7064 0.0002313 ***
fesisNewZealand.1997 4.5795e-01 5.5082e-02 8.3141 7.210e-16 ***
fesisNewZealand.2002 1.5045e-01 5.5415e-02 2.7149 0.0068372 **
fesisNewZealand.2009 -3.0121e-01 4.7277e-02 -6.3711 3.954e-10 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 61.772 1 3.886e-15 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 30.803 1 2.857e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.08838
R-squared 0.99734
Log-lik.(n=640) 688.08592 AR = 1
Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Mon Dec 5 20:07:04 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 7.5175e-01 2.2181e-02 33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb 5.6781e-01 3.8509e-01 1.4745 0.1409309
lpop -1.6130e+00 1.3830e+00 -1.1663 0.2439960
lgdp_wb_sq 1.9816e-02 1.7928e-02 1.1053 0.2695106
hdd -1.1705e-04 9.7752e-05 -1.1974 0.2316729
cdd -5.5597e-04 1.3877e-04 -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***
idAustria -6.3176e-01 5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -5.4086e-01 5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada -1.3804e-01 2.2335e-02 -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***
idDenmark -6.2118e-01 5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -4.8652e-01 5.1442e-02 -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance -3.6841e-01 3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 1.3147e-01 2.4002e-02 5.4772 6.607e-08 ***
idGreece -4.1069e-01 3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -6.6552e-01 6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly -1.0204e-01 2.0919e-02 -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***
idJapan 1.9067e-01 2.8861e-02 6.6066 9.369e-11 ***
idNetherlands -2.9494e-01 3.2397e-02 -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -7.9872e-01 1.0146e-01 -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***
idPortugal -5.4502e-01 5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -2.0901e-01 2.6474e-02 -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***
idSweden -7.5812e-01 6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -1.0421e+00 9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom -2.5943e-02 2.0967e-02 -1.2373 0.2165155
idUnitedStates 6.0911e-01 5.8970e-02 10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1991 6.8053e-01 5.0467e-01 1.3485 0.1780665
time1992 6.1693e-01 5.2970e-01 1.1647 0.2446586
time1993 5.9818e-01 5.0715e-01 1.1795 0.2387159
time1994 5.9524e-01 4.5720e-01 1.3019 0.1934943
time1995 6.0853e-01 4.2992e-01 1.4154 0.1575129
time1996 5.9198e-01 4.4349e-01 1.3348 0.1824910
time1997 4.9259e-01 3.8624e-01 1.2754 0.2027228
time1998 4.4824e-01 3.1015e-01 1.4452 0.1489657
time1999 3.8630e-01 2.6544e-01 1.4553 0.1461543
time2000 2.9566e-01 2.3170e-01 1.2761 0.2024795
time2001 3.2250e-01 2.0532e-01 1.5707 0.1168332
time2002 3.3966e-01 1.8858e-01 1.8012 0.0722278 .
time2003 3.2625e-01 1.8875e-01 1.7285 0.0844677 .
time2004 2.2085e-01 1.5696e-01 1.4070 0.1599946
time2005 2.7055e-01 1.0765e-01 2.5132 0.0122524 *
time2006 1.4223e-01 8.4842e-02 1.6764 0.0942343 .
time2007 1.7231e-01 8.2804e-02 2.0810 0.0379048 *
time2008 1.2249e-01 9.1859e-02 1.3334 0.1829439
time2009 1.4885e-01 1.5000e-01 0.9923 0.3214714
time2010 2.0502e-01 9.9568e-02 2.0591 0.0399593 *
time2011 9.7624e-02 8.0935e-02 1.2062 0.2282598
time2012 1.1967e-01 6.1272e-02 1.9531 0.0513195 .
time2013 4.1818e-02 6.3674e-02 0.6567 0.5116212
time2014 -2.5925e-02 5.5002e-02 -0.4713 0.6375812
time2015 5.0250e-02 3.6422e-02 1.3797 0.1682551
time2016 3.1824e-02 3.3353e-02 0.9541 0.3404339
iis125 4.0274e-01 8.0939e-02 4.9758 8.725e-07 ***
iis127 2.6002e-01 8.1090e-02 3.2065 0.0014222 **
iis128 2.8400e-01 8.1358e-02 3.4907 0.0005208 ***
iis130 4.7920e-01 8.1655e-02 5.8687 7.633e-09 ***
iis137 2.3442e-01 8.0628e-02 2.9074 0.0037932 **
iis140 3.6872e-01 8.0775e-02 4.5648 6.184e-06 ***
iis149 -2.6431e-01 8.0931e-02 -3.2659 0.0011596 **
iis151 -2.8779e-01 8.1168e-02 -3.5456 0.0004254 ***
iis153 -3.7375e-01 8.1759e-02 -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***
iis170 -3.2264e-01 8.1644e-02 -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***
iis171 4.2612e-01 8.1615e-02 5.2211 2.534e-07 ***
iis194 2.6611e-01 8.0299e-02 3.3140 0.0009809 ***
iis410 2.6767e-01 8.1176e-02 3.2974 0.0010396 **
iis440 -2.8560e-01 8.0757e-02 -3.5365 0.0004400 ***
iis454 -3.3121e-01 8.0460e-02 -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***
iis471 -2.3466e-01 8.0512e-02 -2.9145 0.0037085 **
iis502 3.7161e-01 8.0578e-02 4.6118 4.979e-06 ***
iis516 2.4231e-01 8.0320e-02 3.0168 0.0026737 **
fesisFinland.2005 -7.8354e-02 2.9382e-02 -2.6667 0.0078870 **
fesisJapan.2010 1.2814e-01 3.0521e-02 4.1983 3.140e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -2.7673e-01 7.2047e-02 -3.8410 0.0001370 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 2.6099e-01 4.9010e-02 5.3251 1.477e-07 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -2.3353e-01 4.8134e-02 -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01 3.5525e-02 -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 2.2203 1 0.136204
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243 1 0.001178 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.07682
R-squared 0.99796
Log-lik.(n=620) 748.82217 w.o ETS
AR = 0
Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Mon Nov 28 12:34:22 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 3.8316e-01 5.2252e-01 0.7333 0.4636822
lpop 2.5710e-02 2.0058e-01 0.1282 0.8980504
lgdp_wb_sq -1.9737e-03 1.0103e-02 -0.1954 0.8451842
hdd 1.8635e-04 2.8679e-05 6.4980 1.782e-10 ***
cdd 2.9071e-04 8.1415e-05 3.5707 0.0003862 ***
idAustria -2.3864e+00 1.5702e-01 -15.1982 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -1.6929e+00 1.1453e-01 -14.7813 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada -9.4728e-01 1.2851e-01 -7.3713 6.000e-13 ***
idDenmark -1.4402e+00 2.1883e-01 -6.5816 1.059e-10 ***
idFinland -2.0095e+00 2.3713e-01 -8.4743 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance -1.6448e+00 1.9577e-01 -8.4016 3.543e-16 ***
idGermany 1.4730e-01 2.3215e-01 0.6345 0.5260232
idGreece -1.1625e+00 9.5293e-02 -12.1987 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -2.0252e+00 2.5858e-01 -7.8319 2.372e-14 ***
idItaly -5.7817e-01 1.8147e-01 -3.1860 0.0015219 **
idJapan 2.7138e-01 2.9279e-01 0.9269 0.3543760
idNetherlands -1.1563e+00 7.5140e-02 -15.3890 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -2.9421e+00 2.5504e-01 -11.5357 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -1.6605e+00 9.9377e-02 -16.7086 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -8.1602e-01 1.5359e-01 -5.3129 1.552e-07 ***
idSweden -2.9349e+00 1.5369e-01 -19.0959 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -4.3318e+00 1.9705e-01 -21.9826 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom -1.2165e-01 1.9684e-01 -0.6180 0.5368090
idUnitedStates 1.5255e+00 3.9093e-01 3.9021 0.0001068 ***
time1990 2.1694e+00 8.1484e+00 0.2662 0.7901524
time1991 2.1838e+00 8.1486e+00 0.2680 0.7887960
time1992 2.2095e+00 8.1487e+00 0.2712 0.7863733
time1993 2.1487e+00 8.1490e+00 0.2637 0.7921204
time1994 2.1748e+00 8.1497e+00 0.2668 0.7896820
time1995 2.2014e+00 8.1496e+00 0.2701 0.7871600
time1996 2.2090e+00 8.1486e+00 0.2711 0.7864221
time1997 2.2281e+00 8.1479e+00 0.2735 0.7845981
time1998 2.2573e+00 8.1477e+00 0.2770 0.7818488
time1999 2.2759e+00 8.1471e+00 0.2794 0.7800766
time2000 2.2820e+00 8.1463e+00 0.2801 0.7794792
time2001 2.2923e+00 8.1462e+00 0.2814 0.7785109
time2002 2.3427e+00 8.1465e+00 0.2876 0.7737849
time2003 2.3337e+00 8.1472e+00 0.2864 0.7746467
time2004 2.3568e+00 8.1453e+00 0.2893 0.7724218
time2005 2.3489e+00 8.1455e+00 0.2884 0.7731728
time2006 2.3518e+00 8.1453e+00 0.2887 0.7728920
time2007 2.3578e+00 8.1448e+00 0.2895 0.7723198
time2008 2.2859e+00 8.1450e+00 0.2807 0.7790799
time2009 2.2088e+00 8.1472e+00 0.2711 0.7864052
time2010 2.1712e+00 8.1467e+00 0.2665 0.7899465
time2011 2.1751e+00 8.1475e+00 0.2670 0.7895961
time2012 2.1486e+00 8.1478e+00 0.2637 0.7921085
time2013 2.0917e+00 8.1478e+00 0.2567 0.7974853
time2014 2.0557e+00 8.1481e+00 0.2523 0.8009054
time2015 2.0169e+00 8.1481e+00 0.2475 0.8045914
time2016 2.0072e+00 8.1483e+00 0.2463 0.8055092
time2017 2.0020e+00 8.1481e+00 0.2457 0.8060029
time2018 1.9131e+00 8.1482e+00 0.2348 0.8144584
time2019 1.8407e+00 8.1480e+00 0.2259 0.8213575
time2020 1.7854e+00 8.1511e+00 0.2190 0.8267030
time2021 1.7780e+00 8.1488e+00 0.2182 0.8273578
iis590 -4.0171e-01 1.0596e-01 -3.7910 0.0001661 ***
iis591 -4.3188e-01 1.0593e-01 -4.0772 5.210e-05 ***
iis592 -3.3574e-01 1.0594e-01 -3.1692 0.0016110 **
fesisBelgium.2001 -2.7149e-01 3.7420e-02 -7.2553 1.322e-12 ***
fesisSwitzerland.2006 1.0711e-01 3.8828e-02 2.7586 0.0059920 **
fesisSwitzerland.2018 3.4196e-01 5.7791e-02 5.9173 5.662e-09 ***
fesisDenmark.1999 -3.2142e-01 5.5455e-02 -5.7961 1.126e-08 ***
fesisDenmark.2004 -1.5421e-01 5.6578e-02 -2.7256 0.0066162 **
fesisDenmark.2012 -3.8209e-01 5.1375e-02 -7.4373 3.812e-13 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.4894e-01 5.0376e-02 -4.9415 1.021e-06 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1137e-01 4.6523e-02 -10.9919 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisIreland.2004 -2.1441e-01 4.6932e-02 -4.5685 6.028e-06 ***
fesisNetherlands.2014 2.5604e-01 4.0789e-02 6.2771 6.853e-10 ***
fesisJapan.2011 4.7526e-01 3.9446e-02 12.0482 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisAustralia.2008 2.2597e-01 4.0164e-02 5.6262 2.896e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1997 4.5726e-01 4.9717e-02 9.1974 < 2.2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 114.542 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 42.801 1 6.06e-11 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.09648
R-squared 0.99675
Log-lik.(n=640) 624.46953 AR = 1
Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Mon Nov 28 12:35:03 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 7.5175e-01 2.2181e-02 33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb 5.6781e-01 3.8509e-01 1.4745 0.1409309
lpop -1.6130e+00 1.3830e+00 -1.1663 0.2439960
lgdp_wb_sq 1.9816e-02 1.7928e-02 1.1053 0.2695106
hdd -1.1705e-04 9.7752e-05 -1.1974 0.2316729
cdd -5.5597e-04 1.3877e-04 -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***
idAustria -6.3176e-01 5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -5.4086e-01 5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada -1.3804e-01 2.2335e-02 -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***
idDenmark -6.2118e-01 5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -4.8652e-01 5.1442e-02 -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance -3.6841e-01 3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 1.3147e-01 2.4002e-02 5.4772 6.607e-08 ***
idGreece -4.1069e-01 3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -6.6552e-01 6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly -1.0204e-01 2.0919e-02 -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***
idJapan 1.9067e-01 2.8861e-02 6.6066 9.369e-11 ***
idNetherlands -2.9494e-01 3.2397e-02 -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -7.9872e-01 1.0146e-01 -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***
idPortugal -5.4502e-01 5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -2.0901e-01 2.6474e-02 -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***
idSweden -7.5812e-01 6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -1.0421e+00 9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom -2.5943e-02 2.0967e-02 -1.2373 0.2165155
idUnitedStates 6.0911e-01 5.8970e-02 10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1991 6.8053e-01 5.0467e-01 1.3485 0.1780665
time1992 6.1693e-01 5.2970e-01 1.1647 0.2446586
time1993 5.9818e-01 5.0715e-01 1.1795 0.2387159
time1994 5.9524e-01 4.5720e-01 1.3019 0.1934943
time1995 6.0853e-01 4.2992e-01 1.4154 0.1575129
time1996 5.9198e-01 4.4349e-01 1.3348 0.1824910
time1997 4.9259e-01 3.8624e-01 1.2754 0.2027228
time1998 4.4824e-01 3.1015e-01 1.4452 0.1489657
time1999 3.8630e-01 2.6544e-01 1.4553 0.1461543
time2000 2.9566e-01 2.3170e-01 1.2761 0.2024795
time2001 3.2250e-01 2.0532e-01 1.5707 0.1168332
time2002 3.3966e-01 1.8858e-01 1.8012 0.0722278 .
time2003 3.2625e-01 1.8875e-01 1.7285 0.0844677 .
time2004 2.2085e-01 1.5696e-01 1.4070 0.1599946
time2005 2.7055e-01 1.0765e-01 2.5132 0.0122524 *
time2006 1.4223e-01 8.4842e-02 1.6764 0.0942343 .
time2007 1.7231e-01 8.2804e-02 2.0810 0.0379048 *
time2008 1.2249e-01 9.1859e-02 1.3334 0.1829439
time2009 1.4885e-01 1.5000e-01 0.9923 0.3214714
time2010 2.0502e-01 9.9568e-02 2.0591 0.0399593 *
time2011 9.7624e-02 8.0935e-02 1.2062 0.2282598
time2012 1.1967e-01 6.1272e-02 1.9531 0.0513195 .
time2013 4.1818e-02 6.3674e-02 0.6567 0.5116212
time2014 -2.5925e-02 5.5002e-02 -0.4713 0.6375812
time2015 5.0250e-02 3.6422e-02 1.3797 0.1682551
time2016 3.1824e-02 3.3353e-02 0.9541 0.3404339
iis125 4.0274e-01 8.0939e-02 4.9758 8.725e-07 ***
iis127 2.6002e-01 8.1090e-02 3.2065 0.0014222 **
iis128 2.8400e-01 8.1358e-02 3.4907 0.0005208 ***
iis130 4.7920e-01 8.1655e-02 5.8687 7.633e-09 ***
iis137 2.3442e-01 8.0628e-02 2.9074 0.0037932 **
iis140 3.6872e-01 8.0775e-02 4.5648 6.184e-06 ***
iis149 -2.6431e-01 8.0931e-02 -3.2659 0.0011596 **
iis151 -2.8779e-01 8.1168e-02 -3.5456 0.0004254 ***
iis153 -3.7375e-01 8.1759e-02 -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***
iis170 -3.2264e-01 8.1644e-02 -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***
iis171 4.2612e-01 8.1615e-02 5.2211 2.534e-07 ***
iis194 2.6611e-01 8.0299e-02 3.3140 0.0009809 ***
iis410 2.6767e-01 8.1176e-02 3.2974 0.0010396 **
iis440 -2.8560e-01 8.0757e-02 -3.5365 0.0004400 ***
iis454 -3.3121e-01 8.0460e-02 -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***
iis471 -2.3466e-01 8.0512e-02 -2.9145 0.0037085 **
iis502 3.7161e-01 8.0578e-02 4.6118 4.979e-06 ***
iis516 2.4231e-01 8.0320e-02 3.0168 0.0026737 **
fesisFinland.2005 -7.8354e-02 2.9382e-02 -2.6667 0.0078870 **
fesisJapan.2010 1.2814e-01 3.0521e-02 4.1983 3.140e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -2.7673e-01 7.2047e-02 -3.8410 0.0001370 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 2.6099e-01 4.9010e-02 5.3251 1.477e-07 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -2.3353e-01 4.8134e-02 -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01 3.5525e-02 -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 2.2203 1 0.136204
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243 1 0.001178 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.07682
R-squared 0.99796
Log-lik.(n=620) 748.82217 Model Overview
Note: Countries in which no break was detected are excluded
from these overview plots.
by country
w.o ETS
w. ETS
by model
w.o ETS
w. ETS
by outcome variable
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
France
Germany
Ireland
Japan
Netherlands
NewZealand
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
Demand Channel: Generation, Demand, Imports, Exports
Elec Demand Twh
w.o ETS
AR = 0
Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Fri Dec 16 17:51:22 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 1.1109e+00 1.5623e-01 7.1104 3.599e-12 ***
lpop 1.3613e-01 5.6546e-02 2.4074 0.0163938 *
lgdp_wb_sq -1.5977e-02 2.9881e-03 -5.3471 1.311e-07 ***
hdd 6.0546e-05 8.3096e-06 7.2863 1.107e-12 ***
cdd 1.0597e-04 2.3551e-05 4.4998 8.299e-06 ***
idAustria -9.2906e-01 4.4355e-02 -20.9460 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -6.2539e-01 3.2106e-02 -19.4786 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada 7.7315e-01 3.6589e-02 21.1306 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark -1.2113e+00 6.0792e-02 -19.9245 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -5.2533e-01 6.6149e-02 -7.9416 1.125e-14 ***
idFrance 4.6299e-01 5.5109e-02 8.4012 3.756e-16 ***
idGermany 5.9139e-01 6.8658e-02 8.6135 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece -1.0465e+00 2.7620e-02 -37.8888 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -1.6095e+00 7.1912e-02 -22.3810 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly 8.1112e-02 5.1121e-02 1.5867 0.1131593
idJapan 9.8362e-01 8.2256e-02 11.9580 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNetherlands -5.7380e-01 2.1654e-02 -26.4988 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -8.2527e-01 6.9731e-02 -11.8351 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -1.1548e+00 2.9983e-02 -38.5136 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -1.0138e-01 4.3851e-02 -2.3120 0.0211463 *
idSweden -1.2096e-01 4.4380e-02 -2.7255 0.0066250 **
idSwitzerland -1.0532e+00 5.4057e-02 -19.4833 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 2.5973e-01 5.4262e-02 4.7867 2.180e-06 ***
idUnitedStates 1.9924e+00 1.1459e-01 17.3865 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1990 -1.5680e+01 2.2869e+00 -6.8562 1.899e-11 ***
time1991 -1.5671e+01 2.2870e+00 -6.8522 1.949e-11 ***
time1992 -1.5656e+01 2.2869e+00 -6.8461 2.026e-11 ***
time1993 -1.5650e+01 2.2869e+00 -6.8430 2.068e-11 ***
time1994 -1.5632e+01 2.2872e+00 -6.8343 2.186e-11 ***
time1995 -1.5609e+01 2.2872e+00 -6.8247 2.326e-11 ***
time1996 -1.5594e+01 2.2868e+00 -6.8191 2.411e-11 ***
time1997 -1.5581e+01 2.2866e+00 -6.8141 2.489e-11 ***
time1998 -1.5562e+01 2.2866e+00 -6.8055 2.630e-11 ***
time1999 -1.5547e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.8005 2.716e-11 ***
time2000 -1.5508e+01 2.2859e+00 -6.7844 3.011e-11 ***
time2001 -1.5522e+01 2.2858e+00 -6.7905 2.896e-11 ***
time2002 -1.5497e+01 2.2858e+00 -6.7796 3.105e-11 ***
time2003 -1.5501e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7806 3.085e-11 ***
time2004 -1.5480e+01 2.2858e+00 -6.7722 3.256e-11 ***
time2005 -1.5470e+01 2.2858e+00 -6.7679 3.347e-11 ***
time2006 -1.5461e+01 2.2858e+00 -6.7642 3.426e-11 ***
time2007 -1.5449e+01 2.2855e+00 -6.7595 3.530e-11 ***
time2008 -1.5449e+01 2.2856e+00 -6.7594 3.531e-11 ***
time2009 -1.5490e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7756 3.185e-11 ***
time2010 -1.5483e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7727 3.244e-11 ***
time2011 -1.5480e+01 2.2860e+00 -6.7718 3.262e-11 ***
time2012 -1.5495e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7778 3.140e-11 ***
time2013 -1.5504e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7817 3.063e-11 ***
time2014 -1.5504e+01 2.2860e+00 -6.7821 3.055e-11 ***
time2015 -1.5513e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7858 2.984e-11 ***
time2016 -1.5511e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7849 3.001e-11 ***
time2017 -1.5512e+01 2.2860e+00 -6.7855 2.990e-11 ***
time2018 -1.5518e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7880 2.942e-11 ***
time2019 -1.5530e+01 2.2860e+00 -6.7933 2.844e-11 ***
time2020 -1.5532e+01 2.2867e+00 -6.7922 2.864e-11 ***
time2021 -1.5529e+01 2.2861e+00 -6.7925 2.858e-11 ***
iis204 -1.4098e-01 3.1393e-02 -4.4907 8.647e-06 ***
iis205 -1.4489e-01 3.1362e-02 -4.6198 4.784e-06 ***
iis206 -1.1026e-01 3.1205e-02 -3.5335 0.0004445 ***
iis207 -1.2380e-01 3.1227e-02 -3.9646 8.317e-05 ***
iis208 -1.1644e-01 3.1246e-02 -3.7268 0.0002139 ***
iis209 -8.1200e-02 3.1307e-02 -2.5937 0.0097478 **
iis210 -8.7071e-02 3.1316e-02 -2.7804 0.0056153 **
iis436 -1.0632e-01 3.0138e-02 -3.5277 0.0004541 ***
iis437 -8.6092e-02 3.0023e-02 -2.8675 0.0042957 **
iis465 2.0764e-01 2.9468e-02 7.0463 5.500e-12 ***
iis466 1.8277e-01 2.9386e-02 6.2197 9.841e-10 ***
iis467 1.6889e-01 2.9381e-02 5.7484 1.491e-08 ***
iis468 1.5286e-01 2.9354e-02 5.2075 2.706e-07 ***
iis469 1.0183e-01 2.9402e-02 3.4635 0.0005746 ***
iis470 9.5643e-02 2.9352e-02 3.2585 0.0011888 **
fesisCanada.2002 -8.7264e-02 1.0793e-02 -8.0854 3.944e-15 ***
fesisAustria.2008 4.8115e-02 1.7508e-02 2.7481 0.0061897 **
fesisAustria.2011 8.4565e-02 1.8184e-02 4.6505 4.148e-06 ***
fesisGermany.1995 -9.0621e-02 1.4064e-02 -6.4436 2.544e-10 ***
fesisDenmark.2000 -1.2105e-01 1.5432e-02 -7.8440 2.272e-14 ***
fesisDenmark.2005 -5.8258e-02 1.4307e-02 -4.0721 5.342e-05 ***
fesisSpain.2001 1.6542e-01 1.5455e-02 10.7032 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -5.5095e-02 1.3536e-02 -4.0702 5.384e-05 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2008 -1.2114e-01 1.2502e-02 -9.6899 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisGreece.2001 1.5955e-01 1.3106e-02 12.1733 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisGreece.2010 3.9929e-02 1.3433e-02 2.9726 0.0030821 **
fesisIreland.1997 9.9071e-02 1.6391e-02 6.0441 2.766e-09 ***
fesisPortugal.1999 1.5474e-01 1.5249e-02 10.1475 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisPortugal.2006 1.2540e-01 1.3004e-02 9.6428 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisSweden.2006 -1.3818e-01 1.1488e-02 -12.0284 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisAustralia.2009 6.6316e-02 1.1516e-02 5.7584 1.411e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1999 -8.4323e-02 1.2968e-02 -6.5023 1.772e-10 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 233.41 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 159.49 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.02714
R-squared 0.99962
Log-lik.(n=640) 1444.12531 AR = 1
Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Fri Dec 16 17:51:39 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 9.2739e-01 9.2133e-03 100.6576 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb 1.9316e-01 7.2198e-02 2.6755 0.0076843 **
lpop -1.0155e+00 2.6207e-01 -3.8749 0.0001195 ***
lgdp_wb_sq 1.6028e-02 3.4094e-03 4.7011 3.273e-06 ***
hdd 4.4203e-06 1.8289e-05 0.2417 0.8091072
cdd -1.3747e-04 2.6104e-05 -5.2662 2.000e-07 ***
idAustria -1.0278e-01 1.2795e-02 -8.0331 5.800e-15 ***
idBelgium -7.4178e-02 9.3025e-03 -7.9740 8.920e-15 ***
idCanada 5.7156e-02 9.6360e-03 5.9315 5.305e-09 ***
idDenmark -1.2313e-01 1.6594e-02 -7.4202 4.456e-13 ***
idFinland -7.5375e-02 1.0124e-02 -7.4451 3.755e-13 ***
idFrance 4.8287e-02 8.2430e-03 5.8580 8.064e-09 ***
idGermany 5.5335e-02 9.8191e-03 5.6354 2.790e-08 ***
idGreece -9.3163e-02 1.3580e-02 -6.8602 1.854e-11 ***
idIreland -1.4953e-01 2.1369e-02 -6.9973 7.601e-12 ***
idItaly 1.8422e-02 5.1369e-03 3.5863 0.0003652 ***
idJapan 9.9465e-02 1.4935e-02 6.6600 6.642e-11 ***
idNetherlands -5.4407e-02 7.3964e-03 -7.3560 6.912e-13 ***
idNewZealand -1.2994e-01 1.5923e-02 -8.1605 2.276e-15 ***
idPortugal -1.0877e-01 1.4794e-02 -7.3523 7.089e-13 ***
idSpain -1.2125e-02 6.8274e-03 -1.7759 0.0762969 .
idSweden -4.6842e-02 5.2900e-03 -8.8548 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -1.0063e-01 1.2100e-02 -8.3160 7.155e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 2.1141e-02 6.1830e-03 3.4192 0.0006744 ***
idUnitedStates 2.0707e-01 2.7178e-02 7.6192 1.121e-13 ***
time1991 4.1221e-01 9.5730e-02 4.3059 1.968e-05 ***
time1992 3.8852e-01 1.0036e-01 3.8714 0.0001212 ***
time1993 3.8174e-01 9.6097e-02 3.9724 8.059e-05 ***
time1994 3.5623e-01 8.6666e-02 4.1104 4.552e-05 ***
time1995 3.5375e-01 8.1499e-02 4.3405 1.692e-05 ***
time1996 3.3858e-01 8.3977e-02 4.0318 6.315e-05 ***
time1997 2.9847e-01 7.3144e-02 4.0805 5.158e-05 ***
time1998 2.9064e-01 5.8857e-02 4.9381 1.048e-06 ***
time1999 2.4115e-01 5.0327e-02 4.7917 2.129e-06 ***
time2000 1.9304e-01 4.3828e-02 4.4045 1.274e-05 ***
time2001 1.8456e-01 3.8902e-02 4.7441 2.672e-06 ***
time2002 1.6282e-01 3.5672e-02 4.5644 6.181e-06 ***
time2003 1.4892e-01 3.5634e-02 4.1791 3.403e-05 ***
time2004 1.2409e-01 2.9589e-02 4.1939 3.195e-05 ***
time2005 1.1530e-01 2.0345e-02 5.6671 2.343e-08 ***
time2006 8.7844e-02 1.6008e-02 5.4876 6.223e-08 ***
time2007 7.3537e-02 1.5566e-02 4.7241 2.937e-06 ***
time2008 5.9717e-02 1.7248e-02 3.4622 0.0005773 ***
time2009 5.9656e-02 2.8304e-02 2.1077 0.0355113 *
time2010 1.2698e-01 1.8853e-02 6.7352 4.126e-11 ***
time2011 4.3560e-02 1.5309e-02 2.8455 0.0045995 **
time2012 5.8372e-02 1.1618e-02 5.0242 6.844e-07 ***
time2013 2.9678e-02 1.2012e-02 2.4707 0.0137859 *
time2014 -9.4654e-03 1.0320e-02 -0.9172 0.3594353
time2015 2.2485e-02 6.8585e-03 3.2785 0.0011094 **
time2016 3.4304e-02 6.3182e-03 5.4294 8.492e-08 ***
iis13 -5.4440e-02 1.5369e-02 -3.5422 0.0004304 ***
iis19 5.1238e-02 1.5379e-02 3.3317 0.0009211 ***
iis114 5.0170e-02 1.5387e-02 3.2605 0.0011807 **
iis171 8.6688e-02 1.6897e-02 5.1304 4.012e-07 ***
iis187 4.7580e-02 1.5368e-02 3.0960 0.0020614 **
iis268 -8.5204e-02 1.5491e-02 -5.5003 5.811e-08 ***
iis271 -6.7155e-02 1.5446e-02 -4.3477 1.639e-05 ***
iis345 5.0982e-02 1.5375e-02 3.3158 0.0009739 ***
iis600 -7.3710e-02 1.5361e-02 -4.7986 2.060e-06 ***
fesisAustria.2001 1.8161e-02 5.8640e-03 3.0970 0.0020544 **
fesisDenmark.1997 -2.8366e-02 7.1337e-03 -3.9764 7.930e-05 ***
fesisDenmark.2020 4.5402e-02 1.1158e-02 4.0690 5.413e-05 ***
fesisFinland.2005 -3.4500e-02 8.5762e-03 -4.0228 6.555e-05 ***
fesisFinland.2010 3.5214e-02 8.7366e-03 4.0306 6.346e-05 ***
fesisGreece.2017 -3.3286e-02 7.4541e-03 -4.4655 9.694e-06 ***
fesisIreland.2009 -3.8285e-02 9.5898e-03 -3.9922 7.432e-05 ***
fesisIreland.2012 5.0606e-02 9.9614e-03 5.0802 5.169e-07 ***
fesisSpain.1997 2.5144e-02 7.3027e-03 3.4430 0.0006189 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 10.134 1 0.001455 **
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 11.730 1 0.000615 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.01473
R-squared 0.99988
Log-lik.(n=620) 1770.04298 w. ETS price
AR = 0
Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Fri Dec 16 18:09:15 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 340
Sample: 1 to 340
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb -2.1179e-01 3.1347e-01 -0.6756 0.4998339
lpop -2.4157e-02 7.4237e-02 -0.3254 0.7451179
lgdp_wb_sq 8.7461e-03 5.8718e-03 1.4895 0.1374830
hdd 3.4996e-05 6.5992e-06 5.3030 2.321e-07 ***
cdd 4.8718e-05 2.0401e-05 2.3880 0.0176061 *
EU_ETS_05 2.3687e-01 8.0035e-02 2.9595 0.0033453 **
EU_ETS_08 -4.4516e-02 1.7562e-02 -2.5348 0.0117974 *
EU_ETS_13 1.0751e-02 1.5612e-02 0.6886 0.4916327
EU_ETS_05:ets_price -5.6188e-04 5.3187e-04 -1.0564 0.2916858
EU_ETS_08:ets_price 2.2629e-03 1.2388e-03 1.8267 0.0688136 .
EU_ETS_13:ets_price -1.3743e-03 1.1327e-03 -1.2133 0.2260384
idAustria -1.1717e+00 1.3954e-01 -8.3964 2.352e-15 ***
idBelgium -9.4879e-01 1.2142e-01 -7.8143 1.133e-13 ***
idCanada 7.7648e-01 4.0750e-02 19.0546 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark -1.8039e+00 1.6670e-01 -10.8218 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -9.1991e-01 1.6788e-01 -5.4798 9.524e-08 ***
idFrance 3.6534e-01 9.3477e-03 39.0834 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 4.2104e-01 2.0508e-02 20.5309 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece -1.1598e+00 1.1749e-01 -9.8714 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -1.9649e+00 1.7918e-01 -10.9664 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly 7.1972e-03 1.7534e-02 0.4105 0.6817738
idJapan 1.1668e+00 1.3103e-01 8.9051 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNetherlands -8.0669e-01 9.4495e-02 -8.5368 9.019e-16 ***
idNewZealand -1.2075e+00 1.0299e-01 -11.7252 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -1.2830e+00 1.1760e-01 -10.9098 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -3.3679e-02 3.1090e-02 -1.0833 0.2796264
idSweden -5.2935e-01 1.3379e-01 -3.9566 9.651e-05 ***
idSwitzerland -1.1961e+00 7.4776e-02 -15.9952 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedStates 2.1189e+00 2.0995e-01 10.0927 < 2.2e-16 ***
time2005 4.9660e+00 3.9510e+00 1.2569 0.2098449
time2006 4.9731e+00 3.9507e+00 1.2588 0.2091629
time2007 4.9775e+00 3.9502e+00 1.2601 0.2087039
time2008 4.9879e+00 3.9502e+00 1.2627 0.2077560
time2009 4.9539e+00 3.9505e+00 1.2540 0.2108983
time2010 4.9696e+00 3.9503e+00 1.2580 0.2094330
time2011 4.9665e+00 3.9500e+00 1.2573 0.2096861
time2012 4.9644e+00 3.9497e+00 1.2569 0.2098482
time2013 4.9564e+00 3.9488e+00 1.2552 0.2104709
time2014 4.9458e+00 3.9485e+00 1.2526 0.2114047
time2015 4.9398e+00 3.9483e+00 1.2511 0.2119322
time2016 4.9486e+00 3.9482e+00 1.2534 0.2111240
time2017 4.9477e+00 3.9480e+00 1.2532 0.2111696
time2018 4.9414e+00 3.9478e+00 1.2517 0.2117314
time2019 4.9268e+00 3.9474e+00 1.2481 0.2130340
time2020 4.9218e+00 3.9480e+00 1.2466 0.2135757
time2021 4.9210e+00 3.9469e+00 1.2468 0.2135183
iis29 -6.2739e-02 1.8550e-02 -3.3821 0.0008223 ***
iis30 -5.4859e-02 1.8425e-02 -2.9773 0.0031630 **
iis31 -6.4623e-02 1.8423e-02 -3.5077 0.0005266 ***
iis32 -5.6462e-02 1.8264e-02 -3.0914 0.0021935 **
iis141 7.5477e-02 1.7764e-02 4.2488 2.933e-05 ***
iis142 5.4964e-02 1.7681e-02 3.1086 0.0020739 **
fesisAustria.2014 5.7963e-02 9.6832e-03 5.9859 6.596e-09 ***
fesisGermany.2018 -4.4637e-02 9.9110e-03 -4.5037 9.824e-06 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -8.7485e-02 9.2817e-03 -9.4255 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisPortugal.2009 4.9693e-02 1.0965e-02 4.5319 8.679e-06 ***
fesisPortugal.2015 3.1480e-02 1.0042e-02 3.1347 0.0019036 **
fesisSweden.2008 -3.7453e-02 1.0952e-02 -3.4199 0.0007201 ***
fesisJapan.2014 -3.7709e-02 1.0539e-02 -3.5779 0.0004082 ***
fesisAustralia.2009 3.5894e-02 1.1030e-02 3.2542 0.0012774 **
fesisAustralia.2018 3.3266e-02 1.0902e-02 3.0512 0.0024986 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 52.914 1 3.484e-13 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 18.785 1 1.463e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.01614
R-squared 0.99987
Log-lik.(n=340) 951.04230 AR = 1
Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Fri Dec 16 18:09:20 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 320
Sample: 1 to 320
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 8.0496e-01 3.1243e-02 25.7648 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb -5.9250e-01 1.1594e-01 -5.1103 6.040e-07 ***
lpop 4.6581e-01 2.1856e-01 2.1312 0.0339625 *
lgdp_wb_sq 1.0834e-02 1.9786e-03 5.4757 9.857e-08 ***
hdd 3.0951e-04 3.3550e-05 9.2251 < 2.2e-16 ***
cdd -6.9270e-04 8.3495e-05 -8.2962 4.918e-15 ***
idAustria -2.3942e-01 3.8423e-02 -6.2310 1.740e-09 ***
idBelgium -2.0343e-01 3.1568e-02 -6.4443 5.208e-10 ***
idCanada 1.6006e-01 2.7676e-02 5.7835 1.992e-08 ***
idDenmark -3.8970e-01 6.0423e-02 -6.4496 5.052e-10 ***
idFinland -2.1778e-01 3.2946e-02 -6.6103 1.997e-10 ***
idFrance 1.3156e-01 2.3297e-02 5.6470 4.080e-08 ***
idGermany 1.5743e-01 2.7910e-02 5.6409 4.212e-08 ***
idGreece -2.6421e-01 4.3499e-02 -6.0741 4.153e-09 ***
idIreland -4.1745e-01 6.7843e-02 -6.1532 2.685e-09 ***
idItaly 4.5678e-02 1.0871e-02 4.2018 3.587e-05 ***
idJapan 2.6896e-01 4.6278e-02 5.8118 1.714e-08 ***
idNetherlands -1.4965e-01 2.3378e-02 -6.4013 6.657e-10 ***
idNewZealand -3.4632e-01 5.4397e-02 -6.3665 8.115e-10 ***
idPortugal -3.0201e-01 4.7548e-02 -6.3518 8.819e-10 ***
idSpain 1.2874e-02 6.7487e-03 1.9077 0.0574798 .
idSweden -1.1936e-01 1.7879e-02 -6.6762 1.358e-10 ***
idSwitzerland -2.6425e-01 4.1473e-02 -6.3716 7.880e-10 ***
idUnitedKingdom 5.5590e-02 1.3447e-02 4.1340 4.744e-05 ***
idUnitedStates 5.4968e-01 8.9498e-02 6.1417 2.860e-09 ***
time2006 1.4052e-01 1.4798e-02 9.4955 < 2.2e-16 ***
time2007 3.2223e-02 8.1287e-03 3.9641 9.405e-05 ***
time2008 -3.3901e-02 1.0792e-02 -3.1414 0.0018657 **
time2009 -1.0149e-01 1.9289e-02 -5.2615 2.886e-07 ***
time2010 1.3432e-01 1.4328e-02 9.3750 < 2.2e-16 ***
time2011 1.4378e-02 9.0451e-03 1.5895 0.1130934
time2012 1.3387e-01 1.5091e-02 8.8708 < 2.2e-16 ***
time2013 -3.7247e-02 8.7101e-03 -4.2763 2.627e-05 ***
time2014 -1.3243e-01 1.3922e-02 -9.5121 < 2.2e-16 ***
time2015 9.5894e-03 5.2451e-03 1.8283 0.0685983 .
time2016 9.9006e-02 1.0739e-02 9.2189 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis81 5.9854e-02 1.5907e-02 3.7627 0.0002056 ***
iis85 4.3281e-02 1.6011e-02 2.7031 0.0072982 **
iis133 -7.9003e-02 1.6364e-02 -4.8277 2.298e-06 ***
iis136 -7.3293e-02 1.6196e-02 -4.5253 8.997e-06 ***
iis149 -5.3470e-02 1.6209e-02 -3.2989 0.0010991 **
iis150 -4.3283e-02 1.6126e-02 -2.6841 0.0077149 **
iis181 4.7186e-02 1.5951e-02 2.9582 0.0033642 **
fesisDenmark.2020 3.9867e-02 1.1630e-02 3.4278 0.0007019 ***
fesisGreece.2017 -4.3268e-02 8.6948e-03 -4.9763 1.147e-06 ***
fesisIreland.2018 3.2041e-02 9.5331e-03 3.3610 0.0008870 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 14.400 1 0.0001478 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 17.127 1 3.495e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.01497
R-squared 0.99988
Log-lik.(n=320) 913.39351 Emissions
w.o ETS
AR = 0
Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Mon Nov 28 12:34:22 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 3.8316e-01 5.2252e-01 0.7333 0.4636822
lpop 2.5710e-02 2.0058e-01 0.1282 0.8980504
lgdp_wb_sq -1.9737e-03 1.0103e-02 -0.1954 0.8451842
hdd 1.8635e-04 2.8679e-05 6.4980 1.782e-10 ***
cdd 2.9071e-04 8.1415e-05 3.5707 0.0003862 ***
idAustria -2.3864e+00 1.5702e-01 -15.1982 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -1.6929e+00 1.1453e-01 -14.7813 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada -9.4728e-01 1.2851e-01 -7.3713 6.000e-13 ***
idDenmark -1.4402e+00 2.1883e-01 -6.5816 1.059e-10 ***
idFinland -2.0095e+00 2.3713e-01 -8.4743 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance -1.6448e+00 1.9577e-01 -8.4016 3.543e-16 ***
idGermany 1.4730e-01 2.3215e-01 0.6345 0.5260232
idGreece -1.1625e+00 9.5293e-02 -12.1987 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -2.0252e+00 2.5858e-01 -7.8319 2.372e-14 ***
idItaly -5.7817e-01 1.8147e-01 -3.1860 0.0015219 **
idJapan 2.7138e-01 2.9279e-01 0.9269 0.3543760
idNetherlands -1.1563e+00 7.5140e-02 -15.3890 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -2.9421e+00 2.5504e-01 -11.5357 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -1.6605e+00 9.9377e-02 -16.7086 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -8.1602e-01 1.5359e-01 -5.3129 1.552e-07 ***
idSweden -2.9349e+00 1.5369e-01 -19.0959 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -4.3318e+00 1.9705e-01 -21.9826 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom -1.2165e-01 1.9684e-01 -0.6180 0.5368090
idUnitedStates 1.5255e+00 3.9093e-01 3.9021 0.0001068 ***
time1990 2.1694e+00 8.1484e+00 0.2662 0.7901524
time1991 2.1838e+00 8.1486e+00 0.2680 0.7887960
time1992 2.2095e+00 8.1487e+00 0.2712 0.7863733
time1993 2.1487e+00 8.1490e+00 0.2637 0.7921204
time1994 2.1748e+00 8.1497e+00 0.2668 0.7896820
time1995 2.2014e+00 8.1496e+00 0.2701 0.7871600
time1996 2.2090e+00 8.1486e+00 0.2711 0.7864221
time1997 2.2281e+00 8.1479e+00 0.2735 0.7845981
time1998 2.2573e+00 8.1477e+00 0.2770 0.7818488
time1999 2.2759e+00 8.1471e+00 0.2794 0.7800766
time2000 2.2820e+00 8.1463e+00 0.2801 0.7794792
time2001 2.2923e+00 8.1462e+00 0.2814 0.7785109
time2002 2.3427e+00 8.1465e+00 0.2876 0.7737849
time2003 2.3337e+00 8.1472e+00 0.2864 0.7746467
time2004 2.3568e+00 8.1453e+00 0.2893 0.7724218
time2005 2.3489e+00 8.1455e+00 0.2884 0.7731728
time2006 2.3518e+00 8.1453e+00 0.2887 0.7728920
time2007 2.3578e+00 8.1448e+00 0.2895 0.7723198
time2008 2.2859e+00 8.1450e+00 0.2807 0.7790799
time2009 2.2088e+00 8.1472e+00 0.2711 0.7864052
time2010 2.1712e+00 8.1467e+00 0.2665 0.7899465
time2011 2.1751e+00 8.1475e+00 0.2670 0.7895961
time2012 2.1486e+00 8.1478e+00 0.2637 0.7921085
time2013 2.0917e+00 8.1478e+00 0.2567 0.7974853
time2014 2.0557e+00 8.1481e+00 0.2523 0.8009054
time2015 2.0169e+00 8.1481e+00 0.2475 0.8045914
time2016 2.0072e+00 8.1483e+00 0.2463 0.8055092
time2017 2.0020e+00 8.1481e+00 0.2457 0.8060029
time2018 1.9131e+00 8.1482e+00 0.2348 0.8144584
time2019 1.8407e+00 8.1480e+00 0.2259 0.8213575
time2020 1.7854e+00 8.1511e+00 0.2190 0.8267030
time2021 1.7780e+00 8.1488e+00 0.2182 0.8273578
iis590 -4.0171e-01 1.0596e-01 -3.7910 0.0001661 ***
iis591 -4.3188e-01 1.0593e-01 -4.0772 5.210e-05 ***
iis592 -3.3574e-01 1.0594e-01 -3.1692 0.0016110 **
fesisBelgium.2001 -2.7149e-01 3.7420e-02 -7.2553 1.322e-12 ***
fesisSwitzerland.2006 1.0711e-01 3.8828e-02 2.7586 0.0059920 **
fesisSwitzerland.2018 3.4196e-01 5.7791e-02 5.9173 5.662e-09 ***
fesisDenmark.1999 -3.2142e-01 5.5455e-02 -5.7961 1.126e-08 ***
fesisDenmark.2004 -1.5421e-01 5.6578e-02 -2.7256 0.0066162 **
fesisDenmark.2012 -3.8209e-01 5.1375e-02 -7.4373 3.812e-13 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.4894e-01 5.0376e-02 -4.9415 1.021e-06 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1137e-01 4.6523e-02 -10.9919 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisIreland.2004 -2.1441e-01 4.6932e-02 -4.5685 6.028e-06 ***
fesisNetherlands.2014 2.5604e-01 4.0789e-02 6.2771 6.853e-10 ***
fesisJapan.2011 4.7526e-01 3.9446e-02 12.0482 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisAustralia.2008 2.2597e-01 4.0164e-02 5.6262 2.896e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1997 4.5726e-01 4.9717e-02 9.1974 < 2.2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 114.542 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 42.801 1 6.06e-11 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.09648
R-squared 0.99675
Log-lik.(n=640) 624.46953 AR = 1
Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Mon Nov 28 12:35:03 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 7.5175e-01 2.2181e-02 33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb 5.6781e-01 3.8509e-01 1.4745 0.1409309
lpop -1.6130e+00 1.3830e+00 -1.1663 0.2439960
lgdp_wb_sq 1.9816e-02 1.7928e-02 1.1053 0.2695106
hdd -1.1705e-04 9.7752e-05 -1.1974 0.2316729
cdd -5.5597e-04 1.3877e-04 -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***
idAustria -6.3176e-01 5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -5.4086e-01 5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada -1.3804e-01 2.2335e-02 -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***
idDenmark -6.2118e-01 5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -4.8652e-01 5.1442e-02 -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance -3.6841e-01 3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 1.3147e-01 2.4002e-02 5.4772 6.607e-08 ***
idGreece -4.1069e-01 3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -6.6552e-01 6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly -1.0204e-01 2.0919e-02 -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***
idJapan 1.9067e-01 2.8861e-02 6.6066 9.369e-11 ***
idNetherlands -2.9494e-01 3.2397e-02 -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -7.9872e-01 1.0146e-01 -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***
idPortugal -5.4502e-01 5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -2.0901e-01 2.6474e-02 -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***
idSweden -7.5812e-01 6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -1.0421e+00 9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom -2.5943e-02 2.0967e-02 -1.2373 0.2165155
idUnitedStates 6.0911e-01 5.8970e-02 10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1991 6.8053e-01 5.0467e-01 1.3485 0.1780665
time1992 6.1693e-01 5.2970e-01 1.1647 0.2446586
time1993 5.9818e-01 5.0715e-01 1.1795 0.2387159
time1994 5.9524e-01 4.5720e-01 1.3019 0.1934943
time1995 6.0853e-01 4.2992e-01 1.4154 0.1575129
time1996 5.9198e-01 4.4349e-01 1.3348 0.1824910
time1997 4.9259e-01 3.8624e-01 1.2754 0.2027228
time1998 4.4824e-01 3.1015e-01 1.4452 0.1489657
time1999 3.8630e-01 2.6544e-01 1.4553 0.1461543
time2000 2.9566e-01 2.3170e-01 1.2761 0.2024795
time2001 3.2250e-01 2.0532e-01 1.5707 0.1168332
time2002 3.3966e-01 1.8858e-01 1.8012 0.0722278 .
time2003 3.2625e-01 1.8875e-01 1.7285 0.0844677 .
time2004 2.2085e-01 1.5696e-01 1.4070 0.1599946
time2005 2.7055e-01 1.0765e-01 2.5132 0.0122524 *
time2006 1.4223e-01 8.4842e-02 1.6764 0.0942343 .
time2007 1.7231e-01 8.2804e-02 2.0810 0.0379048 *
time2008 1.2249e-01 9.1859e-02 1.3334 0.1829439
time2009 1.4885e-01 1.5000e-01 0.9923 0.3214714
time2010 2.0502e-01 9.9568e-02 2.0591 0.0399593 *
time2011 9.7624e-02 8.0935e-02 1.2062 0.2282598
time2012 1.1967e-01 6.1272e-02 1.9531 0.0513195 .
time2013 4.1818e-02 6.3674e-02 0.6567 0.5116212
time2014 -2.5925e-02 5.5002e-02 -0.4713 0.6375812
time2015 5.0250e-02 3.6422e-02 1.3797 0.1682551
time2016 3.1824e-02 3.3353e-02 0.9541 0.3404339
iis125 4.0274e-01 8.0939e-02 4.9758 8.725e-07 ***
iis127 2.6002e-01 8.1090e-02 3.2065 0.0014222 **
iis128 2.8400e-01 8.1358e-02 3.4907 0.0005208 ***
iis130 4.7920e-01 8.1655e-02 5.8687 7.633e-09 ***
iis137 2.3442e-01 8.0628e-02 2.9074 0.0037932 **
iis140 3.6872e-01 8.0775e-02 4.5648 6.184e-06 ***
iis149 -2.6431e-01 8.0931e-02 -3.2659 0.0011596 **
iis151 -2.8779e-01 8.1168e-02 -3.5456 0.0004254 ***
iis153 -3.7375e-01 8.1759e-02 -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***
iis170 -3.2264e-01 8.1644e-02 -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***
iis171 4.2612e-01 8.1615e-02 5.2211 2.534e-07 ***
iis194 2.6611e-01 8.0299e-02 3.3140 0.0009809 ***
iis410 2.6767e-01 8.1176e-02 3.2974 0.0010396 **
iis440 -2.8560e-01 8.0757e-02 -3.5365 0.0004400 ***
iis454 -3.3121e-01 8.0460e-02 -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***
iis471 -2.3466e-01 8.0512e-02 -2.9145 0.0037085 **
iis502 3.7161e-01 8.0578e-02 4.6118 4.979e-06 ***
iis516 2.4231e-01 8.0320e-02 3.0168 0.0026737 **
fesisFinland.2005 -7.8354e-02 2.9382e-02 -2.6667 0.0078870 **
fesisJapan.2010 1.2814e-01 3.0521e-02 4.1983 3.140e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -2.7673e-01 7.2047e-02 -3.8410 0.0001370 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 2.6099e-01 4.9010e-02 5.3251 1.477e-07 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -2.3353e-01 4.8134e-02 -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01 3.5525e-02 -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 2.2203 1 0.136204
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243 1 0.001178 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.07682
R-squared 0.99796
Log-lik.(n=620) 748.82217 w. ETS price
AR = 0
Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Mon Dec 5 20:07:09 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 3.5033e-01 7.0175e-01 0.4992 0.6178237
lpop -4.2696e-01 2.3726e-01 -1.7995 0.0724822 .
lgdp_wb_sq -1.9617e-03 1.3801e-02 -0.1421 0.8870196
hdd 2.0172e-04 2.6888e-05 7.5023 2.517e-13 ***
cdd 3.2009e-04 7.6438e-05 4.1876 3.280e-05 ***
EU_ETS_05 -8.2756e-02 4.8718e-02 -1.6987 0.0899413 .
EU_ETS_08 -1.9898e-01 9.5520e-02 -2.0832 0.0376956 *
EU_ETS_13 6.1017e-02 8.3801e-02 0.7281 0.4668493
EU_ETS_05:ets_price -1.3391e-03 2.8507e-03 -0.4697 0.6387286
EU_ETS_08:ets_price 7.8598e-03 6.7708e-03 1.1608 0.2462055
EU_ETS_13:ets_price -1.0512e-02 6.2329e-03 -1.6865 0.0922606 .
idAustria -2.7991e+00 1.6730e-01 -16.7304 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -1.9446e+00 1.1842e-01 -16.4208 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada -6.6822e-01 1.3698e-01 -4.8782 1.402e-06 ***
idDenmark -2.0097e+00 2.4305e-01 -8.2687 1.013e-15 ***
idFinland -2.5865e+00 2.5368e-01 -10.1959 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance -1.0865e+00 2.3434e-01 -4.6367 4.423e-06 ***
idGermany 8.8589e-01 2.8509e-01 3.1074 0.0019845 **
idGreece -1.3908e+00 8.8390e-02 -15.7350 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -2.7983e+00 2.7952e-01 -10.0109 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly 3.0947e-02 2.2314e-01 0.1387 0.8897479
idJapan 1.2084e+00 3.5788e-01 3.3765 0.0007858 ***
idNetherlands -1.2733e+00 8.0256e-02 -15.8657 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -3.6836e+00 2.8249e-01 -13.0397 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -1.8917e+00 9.3326e-02 -20.2703 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -4.7540e-01 1.8387e-01 -2.5855 0.0099779 **
idSweden -3.2643e+00 1.6111e-01 -20.2612 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -4.7517e+00 2.1695e-01 -21.9022 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 4.7415e-01 2.3079e-01 2.0544 0.0404021 *
idUnitedStates 2.8980e+00 4.8759e-01 5.9435 4.943e-09 ***
time1990 1.0536e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0344 0.3014219
time1991 1.0551e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0358 0.3007475
time1992 1.0582e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0389 0.2993097
time1993 1.0523e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0331 0.3020276
time1994 1.0553e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0360 0.3006455
time1995 1.0575e+01 1.0186e+01 1.0382 0.2996463
time1996 1.0583e+01 1.0185e+01 1.0391 0.2992224
time1997 1.0609e+01 1.0183e+01 1.0418 0.2979724
time1998 1.0641e+01 1.0182e+01 1.0451 0.2964396
time1999 1.0650e+01 1.0181e+01 1.0460 0.2960010
time2000 1.0661e+01 1.0179e+01 1.0473 0.2954038
time2001 1.0668e+01 1.0179e+01 1.0481 0.2950356
time2002 1.0717e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0530 0.2928174
time2003 1.0708e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0521 0.2932279
time2004 1.0719e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0533 0.2926797
time2005 1.0801e+01 1.0179e+01 1.0611 0.2891125
time2006 1.0810e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0622 0.2886277
time2007 1.0808e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0620 0.2886924
time2008 1.0804e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0616 0.2888618
time2009 1.0762e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0573 0.2908349
time2010 1.0717e+01 1.0178e+01 1.0530 0.2927967
time2011 1.0778e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0590 0.2900394
time2012 1.0738e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0551 0.2918609
time2013 1.0687e+01 1.0176e+01 1.0501 0.2941172
time2014 1.0661e+01 1.0176e+01 1.0476 0.2952758
time2015 1.0628e+01 1.0175e+01 1.0445 0.2967150
time2016 1.0600e+01 1.0175e+01 1.0417 0.2979935
time2017 1.0613e+01 1.0174e+01 1.0432 0.2973346
time2018 1.0533e+01 1.0173e+01 1.0354 0.3009537
time2019 1.0491e+01 1.0173e+01 1.0312 0.3028786
time2020 1.0439e+01 1.0177e+01 1.0258 0.3054566
time2021 1.0511e+01 1.0174e+01 1.0331 0.3020008
iis202 -2.7240e-01 9.7134e-02 -2.8044 0.0052180 **
iis590 -4.2087e-01 9.7352e-02 -4.3232 1.824e-05 ***
iis591 -4.5225e-01 9.7277e-02 -4.6491 4.174e-06 ***
iis592 -3.2237e-01 9.8087e-02 -3.2865 0.0010787 **
fesisCanada.2005 -1.7280e-01 3.8816e-02 -4.4518 1.031e-05 ***
fesisUnitedStates.2005 -1.8291e-01 4.9683e-02 -3.6815 0.0002546 ***
fesisAustria.2008 9.4961e-02 3.6722e-02 2.5859 0.0099664 **
fesisAustria.2018 2.3333e-01 5.4792e-02 4.2585 2.418e-05 ***
fesisBelgium.2001 -2.0553e-01 3.4637e-02 -5.9338 5.224e-09 ***
fesisSwitzerland.2018 2.7474e-01 5.3627e-02 5.1231 4.159e-07 ***
fesisGermany.2012 1.0894e-01 4.1379e-02 2.6329 0.0087038 **
fesisDenmark.1999 -3.6458e-01 4.0774e-02 -8.9415 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisDenmark.2011 -3.6052e-01 4.3748e-02 -8.2408 1.247e-15 ***
fesisSpain.1999 1.6962e-01 3.8862e-02 4.3648 1.519e-05 ***
fesisFrance.2005 1.7933e-01 3.5125e-02 5.1054 4.547e-07 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.0796e-01 4.8284e-02 -4.3071 1.958e-05 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.3120e-01 4.4787e-02 -9.6278 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisNetherlands.1995 1.2740e-01 4.6171e-02 2.7594 0.0059833 **
fesisNetherlands.2014 3.0050e-01 3.9408e-02 7.6253 1.068e-13 ***
fesisSweden.2016 2.1876e-01 4.3013e-02 5.0860 5.016e-07 ***
fesisJapan.2012 2.7668e-01 4.6651e-02 5.9309 5.313e-09 ***
fesisAustralia.1999 1.5738e-01 4.2462e-02 3.7064 0.0002313 ***
fesisNewZealand.1997 4.5795e-01 5.5082e-02 8.3141 7.210e-16 ***
fesisNewZealand.2002 1.5045e-01 5.5415e-02 2.7149 0.0068372 **
fesisNewZealand.2009 -3.0121e-01 4.7277e-02 -6.3711 3.954e-10 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 61.772 1 3.886e-15 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 30.803 1 2.857e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.08838
R-squared 0.99734
Log-lik.(n=640) 688.08592 AR = 1
Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Mon Dec 5 20:07:04 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 7.5175e-01 2.2181e-02 33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb 5.6781e-01 3.8509e-01 1.4745 0.1409309
lpop -1.6130e+00 1.3830e+00 -1.1663 0.2439960
lgdp_wb_sq 1.9816e-02 1.7928e-02 1.1053 0.2695106
hdd -1.1705e-04 9.7752e-05 -1.1974 0.2316729
cdd -5.5597e-04 1.3877e-04 -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***
idAustria -6.3176e-01 5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -5.4086e-01 5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada -1.3804e-01 2.2335e-02 -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***
idDenmark -6.2118e-01 5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -4.8652e-01 5.1442e-02 -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance -3.6841e-01 3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 1.3147e-01 2.4002e-02 5.4772 6.607e-08 ***
idGreece -4.1069e-01 3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -6.6552e-01 6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly -1.0204e-01 2.0919e-02 -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***
idJapan 1.9067e-01 2.8861e-02 6.6066 9.369e-11 ***
idNetherlands -2.9494e-01 3.2397e-02 -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -7.9872e-01 1.0146e-01 -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***
idPortugal -5.4502e-01 5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -2.0901e-01 2.6474e-02 -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***
idSweden -7.5812e-01 6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland -1.0421e+00 9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom -2.5943e-02 2.0967e-02 -1.2373 0.2165155
idUnitedStates 6.0911e-01 5.8970e-02 10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1991 6.8053e-01 5.0467e-01 1.3485 0.1780665
time1992 6.1693e-01 5.2970e-01 1.1647 0.2446586
time1993 5.9818e-01 5.0715e-01 1.1795 0.2387159
time1994 5.9524e-01 4.5720e-01 1.3019 0.1934943
time1995 6.0853e-01 4.2992e-01 1.4154 0.1575129
time1996 5.9198e-01 4.4349e-01 1.3348 0.1824910
time1997 4.9259e-01 3.8624e-01 1.2754 0.2027228
time1998 4.4824e-01 3.1015e-01 1.4452 0.1489657
time1999 3.8630e-01 2.6544e-01 1.4553 0.1461543
time2000 2.9566e-01 2.3170e-01 1.2761 0.2024795
time2001 3.2250e-01 2.0532e-01 1.5707 0.1168332
time2002 3.3966e-01 1.8858e-01 1.8012 0.0722278 .
time2003 3.2625e-01 1.8875e-01 1.7285 0.0844677 .
time2004 2.2085e-01 1.5696e-01 1.4070 0.1599946
time2005 2.7055e-01 1.0765e-01 2.5132 0.0122524 *
time2006 1.4223e-01 8.4842e-02 1.6764 0.0942343 .
time2007 1.7231e-01 8.2804e-02 2.0810 0.0379048 *
time2008 1.2249e-01 9.1859e-02 1.3334 0.1829439
time2009 1.4885e-01 1.5000e-01 0.9923 0.3214714
time2010 2.0502e-01 9.9568e-02 2.0591 0.0399593 *
time2011 9.7624e-02 8.0935e-02 1.2062 0.2282598
time2012 1.1967e-01 6.1272e-02 1.9531 0.0513195 .
time2013 4.1818e-02 6.3674e-02 0.6567 0.5116212
time2014 -2.5925e-02 5.5002e-02 -0.4713 0.6375812
time2015 5.0250e-02 3.6422e-02 1.3797 0.1682551
time2016 3.1824e-02 3.3353e-02 0.9541 0.3404339
iis125 4.0274e-01 8.0939e-02 4.9758 8.725e-07 ***
iis127 2.6002e-01 8.1090e-02 3.2065 0.0014222 **
iis128 2.8400e-01 8.1358e-02 3.4907 0.0005208 ***
iis130 4.7920e-01 8.1655e-02 5.8687 7.633e-09 ***
iis137 2.3442e-01 8.0628e-02 2.9074 0.0037932 **
iis140 3.6872e-01 8.0775e-02 4.5648 6.184e-06 ***
iis149 -2.6431e-01 8.0931e-02 -3.2659 0.0011596 **
iis151 -2.8779e-01 8.1168e-02 -3.5456 0.0004254 ***
iis153 -3.7375e-01 8.1759e-02 -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***
iis170 -3.2264e-01 8.1644e-02 -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***
iis171 4.2612e-01 8.1615e-02 5.2211 2.534e-07 ***
iis194 2.6611e-01 8.0299e-02 3.3140 0.0009809 ***
iis410 2.6767e-01 8.1176e-02 3.2974 0.0010396 **
iis440 -2.8560e-01 8.0757e-02 -3.5365 0.0004400 ***
iis454 -3.3121e-01 8.0460e-02 -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***
iis471 -2.3466e-01 8.0512e-02 -2.9145 0.0037085 **
iis502 3.7161e-01 8.0578e-02 4.6118 4.979e-06 ***
iis516 2.4231e-01 8.0320e-02 3.0168 0.0026737 **
fesisFinland.2005 -7.8354e-02 2.9382e-02 -2.6667 0.0078870 **
fesisJapan.2010 1.2814e-01 3.0521e-02 4.1983 3.140e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -2.7673e-01 7.2047e-02 -3.8410 0.0001370 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 2.6099e-01 4.9010e-02 5.3251 1.477e-07 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -2.3353e-01 4.8134e-02 -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01 3.5525e-02 -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 2.2203 1 0.136204
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243 1 0.001178 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.07682
R-squared 0.99796
Log-lik.(n=620) 748.82217 Exports Elec Twh
w.o ETS
AR = 0
Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Tue Dec 20 11:40:20 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb -2.7807e+00 1.1757e+00 -2.3652 0.0183610 *
lpop -2.8534e+00 3.8202e-01 -7.4694 3.139e-13 ***
lgdp_wb_sq 6.8305e-02 2.3074e-02 2.9603 0.0032048 **
hdd 5.2232e-06 6.0573e-05 0.0862 0.9313146
cdd 1.3610e-04 1.7117e-04 0.7951 0.4268949
idAustria 1.0196e+00 3.0305e-01 3.3644 0.0008199 ***
idBelgium 1.0959e+00 2.2279e-01 4.9190 1.147e-06 ***
idCanada 4.7995e+00 2.6999e-01 17.7767 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark -3.8305e-01 4.0819e-01 -0.9384 0.3484341
idFinland -1.8144e+00 4.4766e-01 -4.0532 5.772e-05 ***
idFrance 6.6902e+00 3.8458e-01 17.3960 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 6.6282e+00 4.6209e-01 14.3438 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece 3.7920e-01 1.8642e-01 2.0341 0.0424173 *
idIreland -2.8836e+00 4.6401e-01 -6.2145 1.010e-09 ***
idItaly 2.9395e+00 3.5609e-01 8.2550 1.110e-15 ***
idJapan 3.7326e+00 5.8101e-01 6.4244 2.847e-10 ***
idNetherlands 1.4354e+00 1.6383e-01 8.7611 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -2.9765e+00 4.3585e-01 -6.8291 2.246e-11 ***
idPortugal 8.2375e-01 1.9785e-01 4.1635 3.632e-05 ***
idSpain 3.9134e+00 2.9397e-01 13.3122 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSweden 1.2812e+00 3.0237e-01 4.2372 2.649e-05 ***
idSwitzerland 9.9469e-01 3.6654e-01 2.7138 0.0068585 **
idUnitedKingdom 2.4609e+00 3.8056e-01 6.4665 2.199e-10 ***
idUnitedStates 7.0932e+00 8.1110e-01 8.7452 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1990 7.2520e+01 1.6467e+01 4.4040 1.275e-05 ***
time1991 7.2473e+01 1.6466e+01 4.4013 1.291e-05 ***
time1992 7.2510e+01 1.6465e+01 4.4038 1.276e-05 ***
time1993 7.2533e+01 1.6466e+01 4.4051 1.269e-05 ***
time1994 7.2529e+01 1.6466e+01 4.4047 1.271e-05 ***
time1995 7.2533e+01 1.6464e+01 4.4056 1.266e-05 ***
time1996 7.2648e+01 1.6461e+01 4.4134 1.223e-05 ***
time1997 7.2646e+01 1.6460e+01 4.4134 1.223e-05 ***
time1998 7.2636e+01 1.6459e+01 4.4131 1.224e-05 ***
time1999 7.2669e+01 1.6457e+01 4.4157 1.210e-05 ***
time2000 7.2661e+01 1.6454e+01 4.4162 1.208e-05 ***
time2001 7.2698e+01 1.6453e+01 4.4186 1.195e-05 ***
time2002 7.2734e+01 1.6452e+01 4.4209 1.183e-05 ***
time2003 7.2751e+01 1.6455e+01 4.4212 1.181e-05 ***
time2004 7.2717e+01 1.6452e+01 4.4199 1.188e-05 ***
time2005 7.2788e+01 1.6452e+01 4.4243 1.165e-05 ***
time2006 7.2831e+01 1.6451e+01 4.4272 1.150e-05 ***
time2007 7.2873e+01 1.6449e+01 4.4303 1.134e-05 ***
time2008 7.2881e+01 1.6449e+01 4.4307 1.132e-05 ***
time2009 7.2926e+01 1.6455e+01 4.4320 1.125e-05 ***
time2010 7.2967e+01 1.6453e+01 4.4349 1.111e-05 ***
time2011 7.2966e+01 1.6453e+01 4.4349 1.110e-05 ***
time2012 7.2976e+01 1.6456e+01 4.4347 1.112e-05 ***
time2013 7.3007e+01 1.6455e+01 4.4367 1.101e-05 ***
time2014 7.3056e+01 1.6453e+01 4.4402 1.084e-05 ***
time2015 7.3079e+01 1.6452e+01 4.4419 1.076e-05 ***
time2016 7.3084e+01 1.6451e+01 4.4425 1.073e-05 ***
time2017 7.3092e+01 1.6450e+01 4.4434 1.069e-05 ***
time2018 7.3032e+01 1.6449e+01 4.4398 1.086e-05 ***
time2019 7.3120e+01 1.6448e+01 4.4455 1.059e-05 ***
time2020 7.3239e+01 1.6455e+01 4.4510 1.033e-05 ***
time2021 7.3199e+01 1.6449e+01 4.4501 1.037e-05 ***
iis56 -6.3222e-01 2.1699e-01 -2.9135 0.0037173 **
iis181 8.6572e-01 2.1071e-01 4.1087 4.578e-05 ***
iis246 8.9540e-01 2.1268e-01 4.2100 2.978e-05 ***
iis247 8.8689e-01 2.1221e-01 4.1793 3.396e-05 ***
iis407 -1.0452e+00 2.1593e-01 -4.8405 1.680e-06 ***
iis408 -9.0031e-01 2.1610e-01 -4.1663 3.589e-05 ***
iis409 -1.2095e+00 2.1603e-01 -5.5987 3.396e-08 ***
iis410 -1.1836e+00 2.1584e-01 -5.4835 6.338e-08 ***
iis411 -1.1859e+00 2.1585e-01 -5.4940 5.988e-08 ***
iis412 -9.9759e-01 2.1616e-01 -4.6150 4.885e-06 ***
iis413 -1.0547e+00 2.1763e-01 -4.8461 1.635e-06 ***
iis414 -1.2240e+00 2.1628e-01 -5.6596 2.433e-08 ***
iis415 -1.2653e+00 2.1585e-01 -5.8620 7.847e-09 ***
fesisUnitedStates.2012 -5.9240e-01 9.9931e-02 -5.9281 5.383e-09 ***
fesisBelgium.2014 -9.6086e-01 1.5205e-01 -6.3194 5.389e-10 ***
fesisBelgium.2016 9.2630e-01 1.6795e-01 5.5152 5.344e-08 ***
fesisSpain.2004 5.8672e-01 7.6708e-02 7.6486 8.998e-14 ***
fesisFinland.2003 4.2331e-01 8.0992e-02 5.2266 2.447e-07 ***
fesisFrance.2007 -4.6561e-01 7.6125e-02 -6.1164 1.805e-09 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2003 7.4514e-01 7.9739e-02 9.3448 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisGreece.2014 -3.6024e-01 9.3129e-02 -3.8682 0.0001226 ***
fesisItaly.2007 3.0693e-01 9.4984e-02 3.2313 0.0013050 **
fesisItaly.2014 4.5120e-01 1.0844e-01 4.1610 3.671e-05 ***
fesisNetherlands.2009 8.0160e-01 8.7804e-02 9.1294 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisSweden.2006 -3.3060e-01 1.0001e-01 -3.3058 0.0010081 **
fesisSweden.2012 6.8786e-01 1.0711e-01 6.4221 2.887e-10 ***
fesisJapan.2005 -5.1515e-01 7.8843e-02 -6.5340 1.449e-10 ***
fesisAustralia.2003 -2.7889e-01 8.3720e-02 -3.3312 0.0009222 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 107.834 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 32.353 1 1.286e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.20041
R-squared 0.98226
Log-lik.(n=640) 162.59742 AR = 1
Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Tue Dec 20 11:40:15 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 7.2420e-01 2.5856e-02 28.0092 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb -1.1315e-01 8.0950e-01 -0.1398 0.8888847
lpop 2.8915e+00 2.9355e+00 0.9850 0.3250669
lgdp_wb_sq -5.7883e-02 3.8116e-02 -1.5186 0.1294433
hdd -3.3956e-04 2.0601e-04 -1.6483 0.0998697 .
cdd 1.8851e-05 2.9258e-04 0.0644 0.9486511
idAustria 7.7847e-01 8.1257e-02 9.5803 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium 6.0673e-01 7.2453e-02 8.3741 4.760e-16 ***
idCanada 1.1000e+00 1.0759e-01 10.2239 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark 6.4188e-01 7.3356e-02 8.7503 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland 8.5422e-02 6.7363e-02 1.2681 0.2053127
idFrance 1.1663e+00 1.1587e-01 10.0656 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 1.1189e+00 1.1023e-01 10.1504 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece 3.1314e-01 4.8078e-02 6.5132 1.679e-10 ***
idIreland 9.6816e-02 4.1318e-02 2.3432 0.0194795 *
idItaly 3.0313e-01 4.8107e-02 6.3012 6.112e-10 ***
idJapan 5.7103e-14 4.0687e-02 0.0000 1.0000000
idNetherlands 1.8268e-01 6.6745e-02 2.7370 0.0064034 **
idNewZealand 5.7133e-14 4.0687e-02 0.0000 1.0000000
idPortugal 4.2878e-01 5.5595e-02 7.7126 5.928e-14 ***
idSpain 6.8094e-01 7.2339e-02 9.4133 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSweden 8.5328e-01 8.4708e-02 10.0732 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland 9.5868e-01 9.8015e-02 9.7809 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 1.0204e-01 5.7525e-02 1.7739 0.0766474 .
idUnitedStates 7.2704e-01 8.0348e-02 9.0487 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1991 -1.5712e+00 1.0711e+00 -1.4668 0.1430042
time1992 -1.4598e+00 1.1236e+00 -1.2992 0.1944145
time1993 -1.3763e+00 1.0762e+00 -1.2789 0.2014896
time1994 -1.2870e+00 9.7027e-01 -1.3265 0.1852446
time1995 -1.2318e+00 9.1246e-01 -1.3499 0.1775979
time1996 -1.0778e+00 9.4101e-01 -1.1453 0.2525789
time1997 -1.0926e+00 8.1893e-01 -1.3341 0.1827186
time1998 -1.1593e+00 6.5734e-01 -1.7637 0.0783497 .
time1999 -8.8781e-01 5.6255e-01 -1.5782 0.1151093
time2000 -7.0409e-01 4.9048e-01 -1.4355 0.1517146
time2001 -7.2836e-01 4.3458e-01 -1.6760 0.0943132 .
time2002 -5.9995e-01 3.9927e-01 -1.5026 0.1335242
time2003 -5.0041e-01 3.9928e-01 -1.2533 0.2106456
time2004 -4.8116e-01 3.3107e-01 -1.4534 0.1466980
time2005 -3.8386e-01 2.2744e-01 -1.6878 0.0920309 .
time2006 -4.0031e-01 1.7806e-01 -2.2481 0.0249672 *
time2007 -2.7527e-01 1.7387e-01 -1.5832 0.1139670
time2008 -2.6864e-01 1.9296e-01 -1.3922 0.1644443
time2009 -3.8272e-01 3.1681e-01 -1.2080 0.2275604
time2010 -4.0295e-01 2.0995e-01 -1.9192 0.0554792 .
time2011 -3.1240e-01 1.7051e-01 -1.8322 0.0674745 .
time2012 -3.2359e-01 1.2939e-01 -2.5010 0.0126788 *
time2013 -1.7896e-01 1.3393e-01 -1.3363 0.1820256
time2014 1.3853e-02 1.1601e-01 0.1194 0.9049905
time2015 -1.0059e-01 7.5854e-02 -1.3261 0.1853563
time2016 -1.9677e-01 6.9926e-02 -2.8140 0.0050706 **
iis88 1.1222e+00 1.8495e-01 6.0674 2.440e-09 ***
iis91 8.2186e-01 2.3414e-01 3.5101 0.0004851 ***
iis93 6.0355e-01 2.3261e-01 2.5947 0.0097231 **
iis130 1.1242e+00 1.6756e-01 6.7095 4.920e-11 ***
iis161 8.7889e-01 1.7482e-01 5.0274 6.764e-07 ***
iis168 9.2846e-01 1.7084e-01 5.4346 8.305e-08 ***
iis170 -1.3775e+00 1.7233e-01 -7.9932 7.949e-15 ***
iis177 -7.0547e-01 1.7079e-01 -4.1306 4.188e-05 ***
iis272 -1.0619e+00 1.6789e-01 -6.3251 5.291e-10 ***
iis277 -5.1544e-01 1.6758e-01 -3.0758 0.0022053 **
iis279 7.9124e-01 1.6837e-01 4.6995 3.310e-06 ***
iis381 8.4010e-01 1.7733e-01 4.7373 2.768e-06 ***
iis512 -6.4931e-01 1.6736e-01 -3.8797 0.0001174 ***
iis515 -5.5228e-01 1.6749e-01 -3.2975 0.0010394 **
iis571 6.0341e-01 1.8069e-01 3.3396 0.0008967 ***
iis577 6.2135e-01 1.7167e-01 3.6194 0.0003229 ***
fesisBelgium.2014 -4.6975e-01 8.9664e-02 -5.2389 2.314e-07 ***
fesisBelgium.2019 4.8215e-01 1.8444e-01 2.6141 0.0091944 **
fesisFinland.2000 4.0938e-01 7.4677e-02 5.4820 6.449e-08 ***
fesisFinland.2016 -5.2631e-01 1.2514e-01 -4.2057 3.044e-05 ***
fesisFinland.2018 6.4392e-01 1.4259e-01 4.5160 7.735e-06 ***
fesisNetherlands.1999 3.2494e-01 8.7140e-02 3.7289 0.0002125 ***
fesisNetherlands.2008 2.8969e-01 7.6008e-02 3.8113 0.0001541 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2002 2.7272e-01 9.1117e-02 2.9931 0.0028871 **
fesisUnitedKingdom.2008 -6.3298e-01 1.8030e-01 -3.5107 0.0004840 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2009 5.8593e-01 1.7124e-01 3.4217 0.0006692 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 0.90247 1 0.3421
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 18.82309 1 1.434e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.16018
R-squared 0.98858
Log-lik.(n=620) 294.24627 w. ETS price
AR = 0
Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Tue Dec 20 11:42:39 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 340
Sample: 1 to 340
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 1.1825e+01 3.9226e+00 3.0146 0.0028155 **
lpop -2.7171e-01 6.2576e-01 -0.4342 0.6644822
lgdp_wb_sq -2.1386e-01 7.4316e-02 -2.8777 0.0043222 **
hdd -4.9137e-06 7.2067e-05 -0.0682 0.9456901
cdd 2.9864e-04 2.2734e-04 1.3136 0.1900739
EU_ETS_05 1.9064e+00 6.3997e-01 2.9789 0.0031529 **
EU_ETS_08 2.9947e-01 1.9489e-01 1.5366 0.1255382
EU_ETS_13 -9.6629e-02 1.7028e-01 -0.5675 0.5708503
EU_ETS_05:ets_price -1.0310e-03 5.7619e-03 -0.1789 0.8581174
EU_ETS_08:ets_price -1.7542e-02 1.3821e-02 -1.2693 0.2054287
EU_ETS_13:ets_price 2.2349e-02 1.2662e-02 1.7650 0.0786784 .
idAustria 1.0160e+00 1.1787e+00 0.8620 0.3894583
idBelgium 4.5679e-01 1.0336e+00 0.4419 0.6588804
idCanada 4.1476e+00 3.3148e-01 12.5123 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark 7.6707e-01 1.4021e+00 0.5471 0.5847587
idFinland -3.6709e-01 1.4353e+00 -0.2558 0.7983311
idFrance 2.7111e+00 1.0133e-01 26.7554 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 2.9802e+00 1.6531e-01 18.0274 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece -4.5999e-01 1.0010e+00 -0.4595 0.6462318
idIreland -1.3871e+00 1.5018e+00 -0.9236 0.3564958
idItaly -4.6093e-01 1.9400e-01 -2.3760 0.0181917 *
idJapan 9.2248e-01 1.0332e+00 0.8928 0.3727358
idNetherlands 8.6141e-01 8.0380e-01 1.0717 0.2848143
idNewZealand 4.2393e-01 9.1678e-01 0.4624 0.6441594
idPortugal -1.5823e-01 1.0146e+00 -0.1560 0.8761860
idSpain 8.9783e-01 3.2658e-01 2.7492 0.0063722 **
idSweden 9.6785e-01 1.1360e+00 0.8520 0.3949680
idSwitzerland 3.4561e+00 6.7854e-01 5.0935 6.566e-07 ***
idUnitedStates 5.3607e+00 1.7897e+00 2.9953 0.0029936 **
time2005 -1.5907e+02 5.2090e+01 -3.0537 0.0024832 **
time2006 -1.5905e+02 5.2086e+01 -3.0535 0.0024852 **
time2007 -1.5901e+02 5.2081e+01 -3.0531 0.0024885 **
time2008 -1.5901e+02 5.2080e+01 -3.0532 0.0024873 **
time2009 -1.5904e+02 5.2088e+01 -3.0532 0.0024875 **
time2010 -1.5900e+02 5.2084e+01 -3.0527 0.0024914 **
time2011 -1.5898e+02 5.2083e+01 -3.0524 0.0024940 **
time2012 -1.5908e+02 5.2084e+01 -3.0544 0.0024782 **
time2013 -1.5911e+02 5.2078e+01 -3.0553 0.0024711 **
time2014 -1.5905e+02 5.2076e+01 -3.0541 0.0024802 **
time2015 -1.5903e+02 5.2072e+01 -3.0541 0.0024807 **
time2016 -1.5905e+02 5.2071e+01 -3.0545 0.0024773 **
time2017 -1.5901e+02 5.2066e+01 -3.0540 0.0024814 **
time2018 -1.5909e+02 5.2066e+01 -3.0555 0.0024691 **
time2019 -1.5907e+02 5.2064e+01 -3.0553 0.0024710 **
time2020 -1.5902e+02 5.2074e+01 -3.0537 0.0024838 **
time2021 -1.5911e+02 5.2067e+01 -3.0559 0.0024661 **
iis26 -5.0189e-01 1.9799e-01 -2.5350 0.0118039 *
iis52 -5.5363e-01 2.2199e-01 -2.4940 0.0132250 *
iis53 -9.2020e-01 2.2132e-01 -4.1577 4.308e-05 ***
iis56 -5.8035e-01 2.2191e-01 -2.6153 0.0094108 **
iis197 -7.3840e-01 1.8936e-01 -3.8995 0.0001214 ***
iis198 -7.2265e-01 1.8892e-01 -3.8252 0.0001620 ***
iis199 -8.1130e-01 1.8997e-01 -4.2707 2.692e-05 ***
iis214 -4.7825e-01 1.9542e-01 -2.4473 0.0150220 *
iis222 4.4641e-01 1.9245e-01 2.3196 0.0211003 *
iis229 -5.0879e-01 1.9549e-01 -2.6026 0.0097580 **
iis289 4.2985e-01 2.2262e-01 1.9309 0.0545318 .
fesisCanada.2012 3.6706e-01 9.7996e-02 3.7456 0.0002195 ***
fesisUnitedStates.2011 -4.2739e-01 1.1792e-01 -3.6244 0.0003455 ***
fesisUnitedStates.2018 4.1184e-01 1.3486e-01 3.0537 0.0024835 **
fesisBelgium.2014 -2.5792e-01 1.4321e-01 -1.8010 0.0728084 .
fesisBelgium.2019 4.1629e-01 1.8172e-01 2.2909 0.0227326 *
fesisDenmark.2011 -3.1929e-01 9.4696e-02 -3.3718 0.0008548 ***
fesisGreece.2014 -4.7622e-01 1.0653e-01 -4.4705 1.145e-05 ***
fesisItaly.2015 4.3100e-01 9.7629e-02 4.4146 1.459e-05 ***
fesisPortugal.2013 3.7509e-01 1.0426e-01 3.5977 0.0003811 ***
fesisSweden.2012 4.1064e-01 9.7859e-02 4.1962 3.674e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 17.151 1 3.452e-05 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 17.726 1 2.552e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.17600
R-squared 0.98683
Log-lik.(n=340) 141.72376 AR = 1
Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Tue Dec 20 11:42:41 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 320
Sample: 1 to 320
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 5.6683e-01 3.7975e-02 14.9265 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb -1.4905e-01 1.2429e+00 -0.1199 0.9046373
lpop 1.9688e+00 2.3423e+00 0.8406 0.4013452
lgdp_wb_sq -3.6129e-02 2.0612e-02 -1.7528 0.0807770 .
hdd -4.0233e-04 3.6271e-04 -1.1092 0.2683188
cdd 3.6389e-04 9.0729e-04 0.4011 0.6886890
idAustria 1.2890e+00 1.2627e-01 10.2086 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium 1.0582e+00 1.0784e-01 9.8125 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada 1.7765e+00 1.6415e-01 10.8229 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark 1.0877e+00 1.0988e-01 9.8988 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland 7.7799e-01 8.5333e-02 9.1171 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance 1.8073e+00 1.6831e-01 10.7380 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 1.8413e+00 1.7050e-01 10.7994 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece 6.1400e-01 7.6375e-02 8.0392 2.879e-14 ***
idIreland 2.5110e-01 5.9949e-02 4.1886 3.808e-05 ***
idItaly 6.5849e-01 7.7998e-02 8.4424 1.954e-15 ***
idJapan -1.1110e-14 5.6987e-02 0.0000 1.0000000
idNetherlands 1.2233e+00 1.1559e-01 10.5829 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -1.1264e-14 5.6987e-02 0.0000 1.0000000
idPortugal 4.5337e-01 1.1734e-01 3.8638 0.0001400 ***
idSpain 1.2057e+00 1.1848e-01 10.1764 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSweden 1.4686e+00 1.3297e-01 11.0444 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSwitzerland 1.5217e+00 1.4552e-01 10.4565 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 6.3310e-01 7.6532e-02 8.2723 6.134e-15 ***
idUnitedStates 1.4628e+00 1.6131e-01 9.0684 < 2.2e-16 ***
time2006 -3.4173e-01 1.5980e-01 -2.1385 0.0333743 *
time2007 -2.0518e-01 8.7739e-02 -2.3385 0.0200926 *
time2008 -1.6134e-01 1.1646e-01 -1.3854 0.1670798
time2009 -1.8507e-01 2.0737e-01 -0.8924 0.3729556
time2010 -3.1989e-01 1.5157e-01 -2.1105 0.0357351 *
time2011 -2.2938e-01 9.7365e-02 -2.3559 0.0191976 *
time2012 -2.8844e-01 1.6345e-01 -1.7647 0.0787501 .
time2013 -1.0773e-01 9.3236e-02 -1.1555 0.2489219
time2014 9.6092e-02 1.5115e-01 0.6357 0.5254847
time2015 -5.3189e-02 5.5907e-02 -0.9514 0.3422619
time2016 -1.5492e-01 1.1547e-01 -1.3417 0.1808127
iis41 -6.8171e-01 1.7375e-01 -3.9235 0.0001109 ***
iis42 -7.1409e-01 1.7520e-01 -4.0759 6.040e-05 ***
iis45 -6.3125e-01 1.7365e-01 -3.6352 0.0003328 ***
iis87 -6.8171e-01 1.7460e-01 -3.9044 0.0001195 ***
iis137 -1.0690e+00 1.7315e-01 -6.1739 2.446e-09 ***
iis144 1.1241e+00 2.0314e-01 5.5336 7.441e-08 ***
iis257 -6.8091e-01 1.7151e-01 -3.9701 9.225e-05 ***
iis260 -7.0197e-01 1.7157e-01 -4.0914 5.671e-05 ***
iis291 -5.9010e-01 1.7133e-01 -3.4442 0.0006641 ***
fesisBelgium.2019 4.2579e-01 1.0920e-01 3.8992 0.0001219 ***
fesisFinland.2016 -5.1232e-01 1.2958e-01 -3.9537 9.843e-05 ***
fesisFinland.2018 5.9889e-01 1.4369e-01 4.1679 4.148e-05 ***
fesisGreece.2019 -5.2577e-01 1.2720e-01 -4.1333 4.782e-05 ***
fesisPortugal.2009 3.6582e-01 1.0670e-01 3.4284 0.0007023 ***
fesisUnitedStates.2009 -3.5711e-01 1.0881e-01 -3.2819 0.0011676 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 0.21771 1 0.640794
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 7.16287 1 0.007443 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.16118
R-squared 0.98838
Log-lik.(n=320) 155.50489 Generation
w.o ETS
AR = 0
Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Fri Dec 16 17:43:57 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 639
Sample: 1 to 639
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 1.3915e+00 2.0082e-01 6.9289 1.176e-11 ***
lpop -1.0622e-01 7.8012e-02 -1.3616 0.1738701
lgdp_wb_sq -1.8123e-02 3.9373e-03 -4.6029 5.165e-06 ***
hdd 4.2891e-05 1.2547e-05 3.4186 0.0006756 ***
cdd 1.4015e-04 3.5116e-05 3.9909 7.461e-05 ***
idAustria -9.2927e-01 6.4961e-02 -14.3050 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -6.4383e-01 4.7549e-02 -13.5403 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada 9.1152e-01 5.2096e-02 17.4969 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark -1.3447e+00 8.6298e-02 -15.5825 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -6.1820e-01 9.5401e-02 -6.4800 2.021e-10 ***
idFrance 7.6243e-01 7.4105e-02 10.2886 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 7.4873e-01 8.8892e-02 8.4229 3.131e-16 ***
idGreece -9.9595e-01 3.7837e-02 -26.3224 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -1.6100e+00 9.7499e-02 -16.5127 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly 3.8619e-02 6.8617e-02 0.5628 0.5737807
idJapan 1.2309e+00 1.1301e-01 10.8925 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNetherlands -6.8023e-01 3.2910e-02 -20.6696 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -9.3047e-01 9.0847e-02 -10.2421 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -1.1208e+00 3.8958e-02 -28.7700 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain -4.0867e-02 5.7703e-02 -0.7082 0.4790947
idSweden 8.1825e-02 6.5454e-02 1.2501 0.2117800
idSwitzerland -1.0609e+00 8.0129e-02 -13.2396 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 3.5199e-01 7.2734e-02 4.8394 1.688e-06 ***
idUnitedStates 2.1930e+00 1.5521e-01 14.1290 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1990 -1.7690e+01 2.8926e+00 -6.1155 1.812e-09 ***
time1991 -1.7667e+01 2.8926e+00 -6.1076 1.899e-09 ***
time1992 -1.7649e+01 2.8923e+00 -6.1021 1.962e-09 ***
time1993 -1.7634e+01 2.8924e+00 -6.0966 2.025e-09 ***
time1994 -1.7618e+01 2.8927e+00 -6.0904 2.100e-09 ***
time1995 -1.7600e+01 2.8922e+00 -6.0855 2.161e-09 ***
time1996 -1.7597e+01 2.8916e+00 -6.0858 2.158e-09 ***
time1997 -1.7580e+01 2.8916e+00 -6.0796 2.238e-09 ***
time1998 -1.7571e+01 2.8913e+00 -6.0770 2.271e-09 ***
time1999 -1.7555e+01 2.8909e+00 -6.0723 2.335e-09 ***
time2000 -1.7576e+01 2.8903e+00 -6.0811 2.219e-09 ***
time2001 -1.7568e+01 2.8903e+00 -6.0782 2.256e-09 ***
time2002 -1.7555e+01 2.8902e+00 -6.0739 2.314e-09 ***
time2003 -1.7559e+01 2.8904e+00 -6.0747 2.302e-09 ***
time2004 -1.7547e+01 2.8896e+00 -6.0724 2.333e-09 ***
time2005 -1.7566e+01 2.8896e+00 -6.0791 2.245e-09 ***
time2006 -1.7562e+01 2.8894e+00 -6.0782 2.256e-09 ***
time2007 -1.7539e+01 2.8888e+00 -6.0713 2.349e-09 ***
time2008 -1.7547e+01 2.8889e+00 -6.0740 2.312e-09 ***
time2009 -1.7559e+01 2.8899e+00 -6.0761 2.283e-09 ***
time2010 -1.7544e+01 2.8897e+00 -6.0712 2.350e-09 ***
time2011 -1.7551e+01 2.8896e+00 -6.0739 2.314e-09 ***
time2012 -1.7561e+01 2.8899e+00 -6.0768 2.274e-09 ***
time2013 -1.7566e+01 2.8898e+00 -6.0785 2.252e-09 ***
time2014 -1.7590e+01 2.8897e+00 -6.0871 2.141e-09 ***
time2015 -1.7594e+01 2.8896e+00 -6.0888 2.121e-09 ***
time2016 -1.7589e+01 2.8895e+00 -6.0872 2.140e-09 ***
time2017 -1.7598e+01 2.8893e+00 -6.0907 2.097e-09 ***
time2018 -1.7617e+01 2.8894e+00 -6.0970 2.021e-09 ***
time2019 -1.7614e+01 2.8891e+00 -6.0968 2.024e-09 ***
time2020 -1.7606e+01 2.8904e+00 -6.0911 2.092e-09 ***
time2021 -1.7610e+01 2.8890e+00 -6.0955 2.039e-09 ***
iis113 -2.2754e-01 4.2701e-02 -5.3286 1.439e-07 ***
iis176 1.7279e-01 4.4058e-02 3.9220 9.879e-05 ***
iis179 1.9470e-01 4.4048e-02 4.4202 1.186e-05 ***
iis181 4.1232e-01 4.4191e-02 9.3306 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis182 1.9872e-01 4.4143e-02 4.5018 8.209e-06 ***
iis183 1.2137e-01 4.4074e-02 2.7538 0.0060826 **
iis188 1.8379e-01 4.4072e-02 4.1702 3.529e-05 ***
iis191 1.4185e-01 4.4112e-02 3.2156 0.0013771 **
fesisSwitzerland.2003 -1.1172e-01 1.5746e-02 -7.0950 3.948e-12 ***
fesisDenmark.2007 -6.2595e-02 2.3318e-02 -2.6844 0.0074831 **
fesisDenmark.2012 -1.6642e-01 2.3103e-02 -7.2032 1.919e-12 ***
fesisSpain.2000 1.8775e-01 2.4990e-02 7.5129 2.318e-13 ***
fesisSpain.2004 1.2923e-01 2.3529e-02 5.4925 6.033e-08 ***
fesisFinland.2009 -1.0562e-01 1.5941e-02 -6.6256 8.169e-11 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2012 -1.5825e-01 1.6516e-02 -9.5816 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisGreece.2000 1.6604e-01 1.7340e-02 9.5756 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisItaly.2004 1.1718e-01 1.6299e-02 7.1893 2.105e-12 ***
fesisNetherlands.2009 1.0435e-01 1.8027e-02 5.7884 1.187e-08 ***
fesisNetherlands.2017 9.0862e-02 2.3958e-02 3.7925 0.0001655 ***
fesisPortugal.1998 1.7808e-01 2.1342e-02 8.3442 5.671e-16 ***
fesisPortugal.2006 6.9948e-02 2.1304e-02 3.2833 0.0010905 **
fesisPortugal.2014 1.3613e-01 2.1491e-02 6.3344 4.914e-10 ***
fesisSweden.1994 -1.1363e-01 2.5936e-02 -4.3812 1.411e-05 ***
fesisSweden.2002 -1.4900e-01 2.0268e-02 -7.3517 7.025e-13 ***
fesisSweden.2012 7.9527e-02 1.8981e-02 4.1899 3.245e-05 ***
fesisJapan.2000 -5.5173e-02 1.7286e-02 -3.1918 0.0014935 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 95.255 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.359 1 0.0002572 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.04088
R-squared 0.99914
Log-lik.(n=639) 1177.19304 AR = 1
Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Fri Dec 16 17:43:50 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 619
Sample: 1 to 619
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 8.3058e-01 1.9367e-02 42.8869 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb 2.3893e-01 1.7771e-01 1.3445 0.1793428
lpop -8.5305e-01 6.4497e-01 -1.3226 0.1865160
lgdp_wb_sq 1.1551e-02 8.3928e-03 1.3763 0.1693028
hdd -1.3463e-05 4.5145e-05 -0.2982 0.7656597
cdd -5.8989e-05 6.5530e-05 -0.9002 0.3684189
idAustria -2.1749e-01 2.5883e-02 -8.4028 3.793e-16 ***
idBelgium -1.7195e-01 2.0790e-02 -8.2708 1.021e-15 ***
idCanada 1.6723e-01 2.1837e-02 7.6581 8.636e-14 ***
idDenmark -3.9336e-01 3.3414e-02 -11.7722 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -1.7223e-01 2.3570e-02 -7.3070 9.750e-13 ***
idFrance 1.5089e-01 2.0107e-02 7.5042 2.526e-13 ***
idGermany 1.6038e-01 2.1836e-02 7.3449 7.539e-13 ***
idGreece -2.4236e-01 2.9134e-02 -8.3188 7.133e-16 ***
idIreland -3.6004e-01 4.3261e-02 -8.3226 6.933e-16 ***
idItaly 3.6048e-02 1.0257e-02 3.5144 0.0004774 ***
idJapan 2.5356e-01 3.1673e-02 8.0057 7.189e-15 ***
idNetherlands -1.2945e-01 1.7542e-02 -7.3792 5.964e-13 ***
idNewZealand -2.8712e-01 3.3645e-02 -8.5338 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -2.6939e-01 3.1960e-02 -8.4292 3.108e-16 ***
idSpain -2.3750e-02 1.6401e-02 -1.4481 0.1481714
idSweden -6.2055e-02 1.1169e-02 -5.5560 4.320e-08 ***
idSwitzerland -2.1433e-01 2.5010e-02 -8.5698 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 7.1324e-02 1.3507e-02 5.2807 1.861e-07 ***
idUnitedStates 4.8547e-01 5.6998e-02 8.5173 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1991 3.0568e-01 2.3561e-01 1.2974 0.1950538
time1992 2.8842e-01 2.4707e-01 1.1674 0.2435700
time1993 2.8943e-01 2.3653e-01 1.2236 0.2216137
time1994 2.7579e-01 2.1332e-01 1.2929 0.1966022
time1995 2.6372e-01 2.0057e-01 1.3149 0.1891007
time1996 2.5807e-01 2.0671e-01 1.2485 0.2123961
time1997 2.3100e-01 1.8004e-01 1.2831 0.2000157
time1998 2.1740e-01 1.4490e-01 1.5004 0.1341018
time1999 1.8178e-01 1.2388e-01 1.4674 0.1428383
time2000 1.2876e-01 1.0792e-01 1.1931 0.2333326
time2001 1.3865e-01 9.5771e-02 1.4477 0.1482731
time2002 1.1075e-01 8.7790e-02 1.2615 0.2076584
time2003 1.1321e-01 8.7700e-02 1.2909 0.1972819
time2004 1.0052e-01 7.2864e-02 1.3795 0.1682946
time2005 7.4931e-02 5.0077e-02 1.4963 0.1351533
time2006 6.4030e-02 3.9525e-02 1.6200 0.1058087
time2007 6.5107e-02 3.8264e-02 1.7015 0.0894127 .
time2008 4.6913e-02 4.2430e-02 1.1056 0.2693656
time2009 6.5399e-02 6.9640e-02 0.9391 0.3480917
time2010 1.0457e-01 4.6358e-02 2.2557 0.0244820 *
time2011 3.0436e-02 3.7594e-02 0.8096 0.4185196
time2012 3.0727e-02 2.8624e-02 1.0734 0.2835436
time2013 1.8332e-02 2.9562e-02 0.6201 0.5354437
time2014 -8.5128e-03 2.5488e-02 -0.3340 0.7385171
time2015 1.8016e-02 1.6858e-02 1.0687 0.2856896
time2016 2.0759e-02 1.5713e-02 1.3212 0.1869924
iis88 1.3207e-01 4.2647e-02 3.0968 0.0020564 **
iis90 -1.8227e-01 4.2358e-02 -4.3029 1.998e-05 ***
iis91 1.7349e-01 4.2513e-02 4.0808 5.158e-05 ***
iis125 3.8417e-01 4.0211e-02 9.5539 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis127 1.7784e-01 3.9859e-02 4.4617 9.879e-06 ***
iis128 2.5579e-01 3.9710e-02 6.4415 2.597e-10 ***
iis130 4.6840e-01 3.9679e-02 11.8048 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis137 1.2576e-01 4.4916e-02 2.7999 0.0052922 **
iis140 2.8789e-01 3.9021e-02 7.3779 6.020e-13 ***
iis170 -3.0770e-01 5.2084e-02 -5.9078 6.105e-09 ***
iis459 1.4723e-01 3.7393e-02 3.9373 9.306e-05 ***
iis511 -1.1590e-01 3.7383e-02 -3.1003 0.0020330 **
fesisBelgium.2014 -1.0261e-01 2.7187e-02 -3.7741 0.0001781 ***
fesisBelgium.2016 1.3490e-01 3.3589e-02 4.0161 6.745e-05 ***
fesisDenmark.2001 1.2329e-01 3.0279e-02 4.0719 5.354e-05 ***
fesisDenmark.2004 -1.1531e-01 2.8994e-02 -3.9769 7.921e-05 ***
fesisDenmark.2013 1.7387e-01 3.9214e-02 4.4340 1.119e-05 ***
fesisDenmark.2014 -1.5601e-01 3.9207e-02 -3.9791 7.850e-05 ***
fesisDenmark.2021 1.5168e-01 3.9282e-02 3.8614 0.0001263 ***
fesisFinland.2005 1.1101e-01 3.8108e-02 2.9130 0.0037267 **
fesisFinland.2007 -1.4737e-01 3.7981e-02 -3.8801 0.0001171 ***
fesisSpain.1997 5.6347e-02 1.7555e-02 3.2097 0.0014066 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 0.7741 1 0.379
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 28.7203 1 8.362e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.03574
R-squared 0.99933
Log-lik.(n=619) 1220.41038 w. ETS price
AR = 0
Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Fri Dec 16 17:59:46 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 339
Sample: 1 to 339
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb -5.0239e-01 7.1316e-01 -0.7045 0.4817275
lpop 3.5256e-01 1.3809e-01 2.5531 0.0112044 *
lgdp_wb_sq 1.5204e-02 1.3414e-02 1.1334 0.2580037
hdd 1.9214e-05 1.5556e-05 1.2352 0.2178007
cdd 1.2010e-04 4.8798e-05 2.4611 0.0144485 *
EU_ETS_05 -1.4226e-01 1.3852e-01 -1.0270 0.3052850
EU_ETS_08 -1.7847e-02 4.1312e-02 -0.4320 0.6660631
EU_ETS_13 2.1561e-02 3.6797e-02 0.5859 0.5583845
EU_ETS_05:ets_price 6.6540e-04 1.2528e-03 0.5311 0.5957572
EU_ETS_08:ets_price 1.2414e-03 2.9479e-03 0.4211 0.6740002
EU_ETS_13:ets_price -1.7439e-03 2.7057e-03 -0.6446 0.5197422
idAustria -3.8595e-01 2.5021e-01 -1.5425 0.1240683
idBelgium -2.4971e-01 2.1862e-01 -1.1422 0.2543203
idCanada 7.5964e-01 7.3440e-02 10.3436 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark -7.2523e-01 3.0086e-01 -2.4106 0.0165680 *
idFinland -1.0164e-03 3.0534e-01 -0.0033 0.9973464
idFrance 4.4038e-01 2.1962e-02 20.0517 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 3.3625e-01 3.9246e-02 8.5680 7.006e-16 ***
idGreece -5.1344e-01 2.1127e-01 -2.4303 0.0157105 *
idIreland -8.5725e-01 3.2234e-01 -2.6595 0.0082744 **
idItaly -1.3039e-01 3.9993e-02 -3.2603 0.0012493 **
idJapan 3.9619e-01 2.2431e-01 1.7662 0.0784384 .
idNetherlands -3.4739e-01 1.6979e-01 -2.0460 0.0416855 *
idNewZealand -4.3301e-01 1.9417e-01 -2.2301 0.0265305 *
idPortugal -5.8840e-01 2.1124e-01 -2.7854 0.0057078 **
idSpain 8.7224e-02 6.2344e-02 1.3991 0.1628864
idSweden 3.1740e-01 2.4192e-01 1.3120 0.1905972
idSwitzerland -6.9796e-01 1.4676e-01 -4.7559 3.157e-06 ***
idUnitedStates 8.7121e-01 3.7644e-01 2.3143 0.0213685 *
time2005 1.6132e+00 9.3753e+00 0.1721 0.8635092
time2006 1.6175e+00 9.3748e+00 0.1725 0.8631360
time2007 1.6440e+00 9.3738e+00 0.1754 0.8609062
time2008 1.6238e+00 9.3737e+00 0.1732 0.8625976
time2009 1.6139e+00 9.3744e+00 0.1722 0.8634370
time2010 1.6331e+00 9.3740e+00 0.1742 0.8618175
time2011 1.6204e+00 9.3733e+00 0.1729 0.8628768
time2012 1.6022e+00 9.3727e+00 0.1709 0.8643924
time2013 1.5906e+00 9.3712e+00 0.1697 0.8653397
time2014 1.5702e+00 9.3709e+00 0.1676 0.8670482
time2015 1.5577e+00 9.3705e+00 0.1662 0.8680943
time2016 1.5636e+00 9.3703e+00 0.1669 0.8675926
time2017 1.5583e+00 9.3697e+00 0.1663 0.8680296
time2018 1.5451e+00 9.3688e+00 0.1649 0.8691279
time2019 1.5317e+00 9.3680e+00 0.1635 0.8702407
time2020 1.5301e+00 9.3696e+00 0.1633 0.8703957
time2021 1.5286e+00 9.3662e+00 0.1632 0.8704771
iis52 -1.5872e-01 4.1689e-02 -3.8073 0.0001724 ***
iis53 -2.0415e-01 4.1633e-02 -4.9037 1.591e-06 ***
iis56 -1.4711e-01 4.1726e-02 -3.5255 0.0004930 ***
iis86 1.9518e-01 4.3608e-02 4.4758 1.106e-05 ***
fesisBelgium.2019 1.0471e-01 2.6426e-02 3.9623 9.409e-05 ***
fesisDenmark.2011 -9.7030e-02 2.6825e-02 -3.6171 0.0003529 ***
fesisDenmark.2015 -8.4317e-02 2.5189e-02 -3.3473 0.0009268 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2014 -1.4065e-01 2.0816e-02 -6.7566 8.082e-11 ***
fesisNetherlands.2015 1.1267e-01 1.9980e-02 5.6390 4.153e-08 ***
fesisPortugal.2014 1.7507e-01 2.1077e-02 8.3063 4.183e-15 ***
fesisSweden.2012 8.9534e-02 2.0727e-02 4.3196 2.168e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 35.671 1 2.337e-09 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 18.110 1 2.085e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.03866
R-squared 0.99925
Log-lik.(n=339) 650.25049 AR = 1
Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Fri Dec 16 18:00:05 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 319
Sample: 1 to 319
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 6.4486e-01 3.7554e-02 17.1715 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb -3.5988e-01 3.0021e-01 -1.1988 0.2316559
lpop 4.0384e-01 5.6646e-01 0.7129 0.4764957
lgdp_wb_sq 5.3796e-03 4.9740e-03 1.0816 0.2803995
hdd 2.2345e-04 8.6885e-05 2.5718 0.0106441 *
cdd -4.5284e-04 2.1649e-04 -2.0917 0.0373853 *
idAustria -4.6392e-01 5.0215e-02 -9.2387 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium -3.7394e-01 4.1827e-02 -8.9401 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada 3.3670e-01 3.8802e-02 8.6774 3.668e-16 ***
idDenmark -7.3029e-01 7.4400e-02 -9.8157 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland -4.3809e-01 4.6702e-02 -9.3805 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance 2.9695e-01 3.5310e-02 8.4097 2.286e-15 ***
idGermany 3.2984e-01 3.8706e-02 8.5217 1.068e-15 ***
idGreece -5.2353e-01 5.5641e-02 -9.4091 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland -7.4955e-01 8.0740e-02 -9.2835 < 2.2e-16 ***
idItaly 6.4836e-02 1.5844e-02 4.0922 5.625e-05 ***
idJapan 5.0869e-01 5.6856e-02 8.9469 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNetherlands -2.6873e-01 3.1861e-02 -8.4343 1.935e-15 ***
idNewZealand -6.1041e-01 6.5746e-02 -9.2843 < 2.2e-16 ***
idPortugal -5.5808e-01 5.9263e-02 -9.4171 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain 5.2964e-02 1.5291e-02 3.4638 0.0006179 ***
idSweden -2.1234e-01 2.8022e-02 -7.5776 5.445e-13 ***
idSwitzerland -4.6351e-01 5.0875e-02 -9.1109 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 1.2019e-01 2.0514e-02 5.8591 1.332e-08 ***
idUnitedStates 1.0049e+00 1.0783e-01 9.3195 < 2.2e-16 ***
time2006 9.4167e-02 3.8279e-02 2.4600 0.0145121 *
time2007 3.3895e-02 2.1111e-02 1.6056 0.1095192
time2008 -2.1610e-02 2.7985e-02 -0.7722 0.4406510
time2009 -6.0965e-02 5.0050e-02 -1.2181 0.2242461
time2010 1.0554e-01 3.6336e-02 2.9046 0.0039770 **
time2011 4.8698e-03 2.3412e-02 0.2080 0.8353796
time2012 8.3862e-02 3.8958e-02 2.1526 0.0322228 *
time2013 -3.4936e-02 2.2528e-02 -1.5508 0.1220996
time2014 -1.0260e-01 3.6085e-02 -2.8432 0.0048025 **
time2015 3.9863e-03 1.3338e-02 0.2989 0.7652718
time2016 6.9339e-02 2.7734e-02 2.5001 0.0130005 *
iis45 -2.1042e-01 4.4305e-02 -4.7494 3.294e-06 ***
iis46 1.1803e-01 4.4582e-02 2.6475 0.0085787 **
iis65 2.8222e-01 4.1219e-02 6.8468 4.951e-11 ***
iis72 1.3122e-01 4.1173e-02 3.1870 0.0016041 **
iis81 1.4947e-01 4.0993e-02 3.6463 0.0003183 ***
iis234 1.4432e-01 4.0955e-02 3.5239 0.0004982 ***
fesisBelgium.2014 -1.1588e-01 3.1543e-02 -3.6737 0.0002875 ***
fesisBelgium.2016 1.7993e-01 3.4440e-02 5.2244 3.464e-07 ***
fesisSweden.2010 7.8974e-02 2.3003e-02 3.4332 0.0006886 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 0.10962 1 0.74058
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 3.70890 1 0.05412 .
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.03862
R-squared 0.99922
Log-lik.(n=319) 607.91842 Imports Elec Twh
w.o ETS
AR = 0
Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Tue Dec 20 11:39:03 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 9.0171e+00 1.2440e+00 7.2483 1.416e-12 ***
lpop -1.0183e+00 3.7967e-01 -2.6821 0.0075335 **
lgdp_wb_sq -1.6410e-01 2.4503e-02 -6.6973 5.201e-11 ***
hdd -4.6650e-05 5.0057e-05 -0.9319 0.3517689
cdd -2.2199e-04 1.4574e-04 -1.5232 0.1282700
idAustria 1.7479e+00 2.7706e-01 6.3089 5.732e-10 ***
idBelgium 1.7608e+00 1.9819e-01 8.8845 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada 3.4633e+00 2.8836e-01 12.0103 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark 1.1595e+00 3.9379e-01 2.9446 0.0033690 **
idFinland 1.4675e+00 4.1757e-01 3.5143 0.0004767 ***
idFrance 2.9126e+00 3.7556e-01 7.7554 4.219e-14 ***
idGermany 5.2590e+00 4.5660e-01 11.5177 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece 8.8820e-01 1.6124e-01 5.5086 5.533e-08 ***
idIreland -9.1886e-01 4.4926e-01 -2.0453 0.0412959 *
idItaly 4.9271e+00 3.5246e-01 13.9793 < 2.2e-16 ***
idJapan 2.3526e+00 5.6839e-01 4.1390 4.029e-05 ***
idNetherlands 2.4866e+00 1.3309e-01 18.6839 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -1.0219e+00 4.4430e-01 -2.3000 0.0218173 *
idPortugal 1.2510e+00 1.7068e-01 7.3296 8.164e-13 ***
idSpain 2.5702e+00 2.9634e-01 8.6731 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSweden 1.7603e+00 2.7193e-01 6.4733 2.106e-10 ***
idSwitzerland 2.1164e+00 3.4641e-01 6.1095 1.878e-09 ***
idUnitedKingdom 4.0320e+00 3.6741e-01 10.9743 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedStates 7.6027e+00 7.7786e-01 9.7739 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1990 -1.0673e+02 1.7951e+01 -5.9457 4.861e-09 ***
time1991 -1.0683e+02 1.7953e+01 -5.9505 4.730e-09 ***
time1992 -1.0675e+02 1.7953e+01 -5.9460 4.852e-09 ***
time1993 -1.0674e+02 1.7953e+01 -5.9455 4.868e-09 ***
time1994 -1.0674e+02 1.7953e+01 -5.9456 4.864e-09 ***
time1995 -1.0667e+02 1.7951e+01 -5.9422 4.960e-09 ***
time1996 -1.0660e+02 1.7948e+01 -5.9395 5.037e-09 ***
time1997 -1.0659e+02 1.7947e+01 -5.9390 5.053e-09 ***
time1998 -1.0664e+02 1.7946e+01 -5.9420 4.965e-09 ***
time1999 -1.0655e+02 1.7944e+01 -5.9379 5.085e-09 ***
time2000 -1.0647e+02 1.7941e+01 -5.9344 5.188e-09 ***
time2001 -1.0645e+02 1.7941e+01 -5.9334 5.217e-09 ***
time2002 -1.0631e+02 1.7939e+01 -5.9261 5.438e-09 ***
time2003 -1.0621e+02 1.7939e+01 -5.9206 5.612e-09 ***
time2004 -1.0622e+02 1.7937e+01 -5.9217 5.579e-09 ***
time2005 -1.0608e+02 1.7936e+01 -5.9143 5.819e-09 ***
time2006 -1.0611e+02 1.7934e+01 -5.9165 5.748e-09 ***
time2007 -1.0615e+02 1.7935e+01 -5.9185 5.680e-09 ***
time2008 -1.0618e+02 1.7936e+01 -5.9197 5.641e-09 ***
time2009 -1.0629e+02 1.7941e+01 -5.9241 5.500e-09 ***
time2010 -1.0627e+02 1.7940e+01 -5.9236 5.518e-09 ***
time2011 -1.0619e+02 1.7939e+01 -5.9196 5.644e-09 ***
time2012 -1.0605e+02 1.7942e+01 -5.9109 5.932e-09 ***
time2013 -1.0606e+02 1.7942e+01 -5.9111 5.926e-09 ***
time2014 -1.0601e+02 1.7941e+01 -5.9085 6.014e-09 ***
time2015 -1.0602e+02 1.7940e+01 -5.9097 5.975e-09 ***
time2016 -1.0609e+02 1.7939e+01 -5.9136 5.842e-09 ***
time2017 -1.0608e+02 1.7938e+01 -5.9137 5.839e-09 ***
time2018 -1.0603e+02 1.7937e+01 -5.9111 5.927e-09 ***
time2019 -1.0603e+02 1.7936e+01 -5.9118 5.902e-09 ***
time2020 -1.0605e+02 1.7943e+01 -5.9105 5.946e-09 ***
time2021 -1.0598e+02 1.7937e+01 -5.9087 6.007e-09 ***
iis30 -6.6224e-01 1.8213e-01 -3.6360 0.0003026 ***
iis281 7.2560e-01 1.8336e-01 3.9573 8.562e-05 ***
iis282 7.7958e-01 1.8334e-01 4.2522 2.482e-05 ***
iis304 -5.9304e-01 1.7918e-01 -3.3096 0.0009946 ***
fesisCanada.1991 -8.1517e-01 1.8363e-01 -4.4393 1.089e-05 ***
fesisCanada.1998 6.0593e-01 8.2494e-02 7.3451 7.347e-13 ***
fesisCanada.2012 -5.7238e-01 7.4145e-02 -7.7197 5.433e-14 ***
fesisUnitedStates.2007 4.6110e-01 8.6953e-02 5.3029 1.646e-07 ***
fesisAustria.2009 2.8507e-01 6.3685e-02 4.4763 9.216e-06 ***
fesisGermany.2012 -3.8638e-01 7.6058e-02 -5.0800 5.157e-07 ***
fesisDenmark.1994 -7.1194e-01 1.1110e-01 -6.4082 3.138e-10 ***
fesisDenmark.2000 3.4846e-01 9.3684e-02 3.7195 0.0002198 ***
fesisDenmark.2008 3.0137e-01 7.7085e-02 3.9095 0.0001039 ***
fesisSpain.1998 5.5722e-01 9.8588e-02 5.6520 2.534e-08 ***
fesisSpain.2003 -4.5989e-01 9.3764e-02 -4.9048 1.229e-06 ***
fesisSpain.2015 7.3372e-01 8.2242e-02 8.9215 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisFrance.2007 3.6202e-01 8.0341e-02 4.5061 8.051e-06 ***
fesisFrance.2016 5.7032e-01 9.6121e-02 5.9334 5.216e-09 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2001 -7.4506e-01 7.7734e-02 -9.5847 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2013 7.2154e-01 7.8768e-02 9.1603 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisGreece.2001 2.7839e-01 8.4485e-02 3.2952 0.0010462 **
fesisGreece.2008 3.8239e-01 8.4210e-02 4.5408 6.872e-06 ***
fesisItaly.2004 -3.0810e-01 6.6368e-02 -4.6423 4.302e-06 ***
fesisSweden.2011 -4.3127e-01 6.5891e-02 -6.5452 1.350e-10 ***
fesisJapan.2002 -4.3391e-01 6.7890e-02 -6.3913 3.479e-10 ***
fesisAustralia.2000 -2.8205e-01 7.6714e-02 -3.6767 0.0002592 ***
fesisNewZealand.2002 -6.2090e-01 7.5398e-02 -8.2350 1.284e-15 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 62.833 1 2.220e-15 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 44.504 1 2.538e-11 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.16694
R-squared 0.98448
Log-lik.(n=640) 279.07377 AR = 1
Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Tue Dec 20 11:38:46 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 7.3710e-01 2.3282e-02 31.6593 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb -1.1072e-03 7.1813e-01 -0.0015 0.9987704
lpop -1.1533e+00 2.6201e+00 -0.4402 0.6599729
lgdp_wb_sq 2.4781e-02 3.4150e-02 0.7256 0.4683685
hdd 1.5262e-04 1.8242e-04 0.8367 0.4031488
cdd -1.3211e-04 2.6108e-04 -0.5060 0.6130550
idAustria 7.8944e-01 7.6260e-02 10.3519 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium 7.1420e-01 7.1082e-02 10.0476 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada 6.7124e-01 7.1863e-02 9.3405 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark 6.7974e-01 6.5531e-02 10.3728 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland 7.4595e-01 7.3168e-02 10.1950 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance 4.4393e-01 6.7769e-02 6.5506 1.320e-10 ***
idGermany 9.9135e-01 9.4259e-02 10.5172 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece 3.2160e-01 6.1876e-02 5.1976 2.852e-07 ***
idIreland 1.6170e-01 4.0074e-02 4.0350 6.234e-05 ***
idItaly 1.0078e+00 9.6165e-02 10.4799 < 2.2e-16 ***
idJapan -5.8202e-15 3.7623e-02 0.0000 1.0000000
idNetherlands 8.0737e-01 7.8986e-02 10.2216 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -5.7888e-15 3.7623e-02 0.0000 1.0000000
idPortugal 5.2895e-01 5.7126e-02 9.2595 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain 6.5318e-01 6.5509e-02 9.9709 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSweden 5.1600e-01 8.3881e-02 6.1516 1.479e-09 ***
idSwitzerland 8.8933e-01 8.6247e-02 10.3114 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 7.7361e-01 7.3826e-02 10.4789 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedStates 1.0465e+00 9.7813e-02 10.6984 < 2.2e-16 ***
time1991 3.8986e-01 9.5805e-01 0.4069 0.6842174
time1992 4.0460e-01 1.0040e+00 0.4030 0.6871259
time1993 3.4627e-01 9.6135e-01 0.3602 0.7188462
time1994 3.2015e-01 8.6710e-01 0.3692 0.7121110
time1995 3.7053e-01 8.1550e-01 0.4544 0.6497527
time1996 3.0162e-01 8.3999e-01 0.3591 0.7196720
time1997 2.8401e-01 7.3180e-01 0.3881 0.6980944
time1998 3.0193e-01 5.8965e-01 0.5120 0.6088288
time1999 3.2299e-01 5.0400e-01 0.6409 0.5218778
time2000 1.9624e-01 4.3862e-01 0.4474 0.6547594
time2001 1.6736e-01 3.8954e-01 0.4296 0.6676419
time2002 1.8752e-01 3.5709e-01 0.5251 0.5996952
time2003 9.0590e-02 3.5654e-01 0.2541 0.7995261
time2004 1.0135e-01 2.9602e-01 0.3424 0.7322065
time2005 2.2425e-01 2.0383e-01 1.1002 0.2717373
time2006 1.2394e-01 1.6064e-01 0.7715 0.4407160
time2007 6.1958e-02 1.5570e-01 0.3979 0.6908395
time2008 3.6548e-02 1.7234e-01 0.2121 0.8321326
time2009 1.2103e-02 2.8300e-01 0.0428 0.9659024
time2010 9.7669e-02 1.8882e-01 0.5173 0.6051742
time2011 9.7411e-02 1.5322e-01 0.6358 0.5251855
time2012 1.5164e-01 1.1672e-01 1.2992 0.1944285
time2013 7.6228e-03 1.2017e-01 0.0634 0.9494439
time2014 3.0075e-02 1.0298e-01 0.2920 0.7703712
time2015 3.9214e-02 6.8721e-02 0.5706 0.5684899
time2016 -1.0652e-02 6.3901e-02 -0.1667 0.8676643
iis94 -7.5268e-01 1.5577e-01 -4.8320 1.757e-06 ***
iis101 5.8820e-01 1.5471e-01 3.8019 0.0001597 ***
iis106 5.0110e-01 1.5510e-01 3.2308 0.0013083 **
iis125 -1.0429e+00 1.5581e-01 -6.6933 5.399e-11 ***
iis126 6.1354e-01 1.5518e-01 3.9537 8.702e-05 ***
iis128 -1.0285e+00 1.5482e-01 -6.6433 7.400e-11 ***
iis140 -5.8374e-01 1.5485e-01 -3.7697 0.0001811 ***
iis161 -5.1545e-01 1.5477e-01 -3.3303 0.0009257 ***
iis205 5.2471e-01 1.5686e-01 3.3450 0.0008790 ***
iis207 -6.1447e-01 1.5738e-01 -3.9043 0.0001063 ***
iis212 6.1638e-01 1.5673e-01 3.9328 9.474e-05 ***
iis302 6.9161e-01 1.5454e-01 4.4753 9.280e-06 ***
iis502 7.5303e-01 1.6048e-01 4.6924 3.414e-06 ***
iis506 7.7418e-01 1.6036e-01 4.8279 1.792e-06 ***
iis571 -6.4770e-01 1.5517e-01 -4.1741 3.478e-05 ***
iis577 -5.8959e-01 1.5493e-01 -3.8054 0.0001575 ***
fesisFrance.2003 2.4847e-01 5.9018e-02 4.2101 2.983e-05 ***
fesisGreece.2001 2.4160e-01 6.0517e-02 3.9924 7.431e-05 ***
fesisSweden.2002 5.7678e-01 1.1908e-01 4.8437 1.660e-06 ***
fesisSweden.2004 -4.7686e-01 1.1366e-01 -4.1955 3.175e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 0.058148 1 0.80945
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 6.527252 1 0.01062 *
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.14812
R-squared 0.98758
Log-lik.(n=620) 339.78790 w. ETS price
AR = 0
Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Tue Dec 20 11:40:56 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 340
Sample: 1 to 340
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
lgdp_wb 2.0054e+00 3.4892e+00 0.5747 0.5659286
lpop -7.8933e-01 5.4192e-01 -1.4565 0.1463502
lgdp_wb_sq -3.4027e-02 6.6045e-02 -0.5152 0.6068086
hdd 3.0098e-05 5.9492e-05 0.5059 0.6133119
cdd -1.8183e-04 1.8682e-04 -0.9733 0.3312533
EU_ETS_05 2.9362e+00 5.3826e-01 5.4550 1.069e-07 ***
EU_ETS_08 2.1491e-01 1.6172e-01 1.3289 0.1849510
EU_ETS_13 -9.3959e-02 1.4202e-01 -0.6616 0.5087634
EU_ETS_05:ets_price 2.7179e-03 4.7789e-03 0.5687 0.5699851
EU_ETS_08:ets_price -2.3893e-02 1.1478e-02 -2.0816 0.0382782 *
EU_ETS_13:ets_price 2.2195e-02 1.0516e-02 2.1106 0.0356802 *
idAustria -5.5632e-01 9.7095e-01 -0.5730 0.5671263
idBelgium -7.7643e-01 8.4805e-01 -0.9155 0.3606889
idCanada 3.1632e+00 2.8618e-01 11.0529 < 2.2e-16 ***
idDenmark -1.3725e+00 1.1630e+00 -1.1801 0.2389573
idFinland -1.0985e+00 1.1799e+00 -0.9310 0.3526290
idFrance 2.7331e-02 1.1323e-01 0.2414 0.8094362
idGermany 1.7210e+00 1.6233e-01 10.6020 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece -1.0757e+00 8.2412e-01 -1.3053 0.1928438
idIreland -3.2839e+00 1.2482e+00 -2.6309 0.0089832 **
idItaly 1.5111e+00 1.6247e-01 9.3010 < 2.2e-16 ***
idJapan 1.2231e+00 8.7740e-01 1.3940 0.1644092
idNetherlands -1.3570e-01 6.6127e-01 -0.2052 0.8375592
idNewZealand -1.0592e+00 7.4577e-01 -1.4202 0.1566391
idPortugal -1.0746e+00 8.2393e-01 -1.3043 0.1931998
idSpain -2.0781e-01 2.6235e-01 -0.7921 0.4289529
idSweden -9.2285e-01 9.3798e-01 -0.9839 0.3260213
idSwitzerland 2.5706e+00 5.6313e-01 4.5649 7.460e-06 ***
idUnitedStates 5.8932e+00 1.5114e+00 3.8993 0.0001206 ***
time2005 -1.6002e+01 4.6432e+01 -0.3446 0.7306197
time2006 -1.5994e+01 4.6429e+01 -0.3445 0.7307365
time2007 -1.5990e+01 4.6424e+01 -0.3444 0.7307685
time2008 -1.5882e+01 4.6422e+01 -0.3421 0.7325151
time2009 -1.6048e+01 4.6430e+01 -0.3456 0.7298769
time2010 -1.6036e+01 4.6426e+01 -0.3454 0.7300448
time2011 -1.5950e+01 4.6425e+01 -0.3436 0.7314230
time2012 -1.5952e+01 4.6430e+01 -0.3436 0.7314150
time2013 -1.5985e+01 4.6424e+01 -0.3443 0.7308506
time2014 -1.5913e+01 4.6421e+01 -0.3428 0.7320054
time2015 -1.5917e+01 4.6419e+01 -0.3429 0.7319268
time2016 -1.5987e+01 4.6417e+01 -0.3444 0.7307876
time2017 -1.5983e+01 4.6414e+01 -0.3443 0.7308420
time2018 -1.5941e+01 4.6410e+01 -0.3435 0.7314918
time2019 -1.5955e+01 4.6407e+01 -0.3438 0.7312520
time2020 -1.5948e+01 4.6415e+01 -0.3436 0.7314129
time2021 -1.5924e+01 4.6404e+01 -0.3432 0.7317397
iis86 -6.1865e-01 1.5707e-01 -3.9388 0.0001032 ***
fesisCanada.2011 -5.2262e-01 8.4218e-02 -6.2055 1.932e-09 ***
fesisUnitedStates.2012 2.9598e-01 1.0117e-01 2.9255 0.0037181 **
fesisGermany.2013 -3.9119e-01 8.5140e-02 -4.5947 6.533e-06 ***
fesisSpain.2015 6.7444e-01 7.6891e-02 8.7714 < 2.2e-16 ***
fesisFrance.2009 7.9458e-01 1.3169e-01 6.0339 5.000e-09 ***
fesisFrance.2011 -8.1825e-01 1.2808e-01 -6.3885 6.862e-10 ***
fesisFrance.2016 5.4607e-01 9.3700e-02 5.8279 1.526e-08 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2013 6.2441e-01 8.2612e-02 7.5583 5.704e-13 ***
fesisPortugal.2015 -3.5991e-01 8.1959e-02 -4.3914 1.593e-05 ***
fesisSweden.2012 -3.8564e-01 7.9029e-02 -4.8797 1.777e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 16.882 1 3.977e-05 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 20.653 1 5.505e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.14745
R-squared 0.98826
Log-lik.(n=340) 196.91353 AR = 1
Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Tue Dec 20 11:40:50 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 320
Sample: 1 to 320
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 5.9835e-01 4.1093e-02 14.5610 < 2.2e-16 ***
lgdp_wb 4.6633e-02 1.0188e+00 0.0458 0.9635255
lpop -1.3652e+00 1.9130e+00 -0.7136 0.4760667
lgdp_wb_sq 2.6930e-02 1.6472e-02 1.6349 0.1032356
hdd 3.1884e-04 2.9505e-04 1.0807 0.2808131
cdd -2.8898e-04 7.3633e-04 -0.3925 0.6950307
idAustria 1.3071e+00 1.4020e-01 9.3231 < 2.2e-16 ***
idBelgium 1.1644e+00 1.2487e-01 9.3254 < 2.2e-16 ***
idCanada 1.2594e+00 1.4497e-01 8.6869 3.584e-16 ***
idDenmark 1.1252e+00 1.1844e-01 9.5002 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFinland 1.2178e+00 1.3135e-01 9.2714 < 2.2e-16 ***
idFrance 1.1658e+00 1.1856e-01 9.8328 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGermany 1.4954e+00 1.6058e-01 9.3121 < 2.2e-16 ***
idGreece 8.9464e-01 1.0136e-01 8.8260 < 2.2e-16 ***
idIreland 3.2059e-01 6.0371e-02 5.3103 2.283e-07 ***
idItaly 1.5400e+00 1.6485e-01 9.3421 < 2.2e-16 ***
idJapan -1.3588e-14 4.6887e-02 0.0000 1.0000000
idNetherlands 1.2851e+00 1.4031e-01 9.1586 < 2.2e-16 ***
idNewZealand -1.3528e-14 4.6887e-02 0.0000 1.0000000
idPortugal 8.9149e-01 1.0052e-01 8.8691 < 2.2e-16 ***
idSpain 8.4465e-01 1.0874e-01 7.7677 1.655e-13 ***
idSweden 1.0248e+00 1.1784e-01 8.6960 3.367e-16 ***
idSwitzerland 1.3972e+00 1.5160e-01 9.2165 < 2.2e-16 ***
idUnitedKingdom 9.8967e-01 1.2206e-01 8.1081 1.788e-14 ***
idUnitedStates 1.6452e+00 1.7366e-01 9.4737 < 2.2e-16 ***
time2006 1.7852e-01 1.2851e-01 1.3891 0.1659372
time2007 5.2431e-02 7.1364e-02 0.7347 0.4631569
time2008 9.6440e-03 9.5266e-02 0.1012 0.9194405
time2009 7.3606e-03 1.7043e-01 0.0432 0.9655828
time2010 1.2985e-01 1.2191e-01 1.0651 0.2877572
time2011 9.4861e-02 7.9523e-02 1.1929 0.2339663
time2012 2.0119e-01 1.3148e-01 1.5303 0.1271158
time2013 -2.0325e-02 7.6733e-02 -0.2649 0.7913080
time2014 -4.0104e-03 1.2309e-01 -0.0326 0.9740328
time2015 4.1511e-02 4.4991e-02 0.9226 0.3570148
time2016 5.9731e-02 9.3792e-02 0.6368 0.5247621
iis36 -4.7919e-01 1.4110e-01 -3.3962 0.0007856 ***
iis65 -6.3978e-01 1.4063e-01 -4.5495 8.122e-06 ***
iis100 4.0121e-01 1.4262e-01 2.8132 0.0052648 **
iis102 -6.2843e-01 1.4395e-01 -4.3655 1.806e-05 ***
iis105 -5.7958e-01 1.4216e-01 -4.0770 6.001e-05 ***
iis107 4.7705e-01 1.4282e-01 3.3402 0.0009549 ***
iis109 -3.9533e-01 1.4362e-01 -2.7526 0.0063125 **
iis152 6.5656e-01 1.4113e-01 4.6521 5.144e-06 ***
iis235 -4.5006e-01 1.4076e-01 -3.1974 0.0015510 **
iis292 -4.3858e-01 1.5298e-01 -2.8670 0.0044692 **
fesisCanada.2011 -2.8451e-01 7.7312e-02 -3.6800 0.0002814 ***
fesisSpain.2013 3.5647e-01 7.2874e-02 4.8915 1.718e-06 ***
fesisUnitedKingdom.2011 2.7527e-01 8.2727e-02 3.3275 0.0009977 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 2.0231 1 0.1549
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 2.2389 1 0.1346
SE of regression 0.13262
R-squared 0.99036
Log-lik.(n=320) 216.93145 Model Overview
Note: Countries in which no break was detected are excluded
from these overview plots.
by country
Elec Demand Twh
w.o ETS
w. ETS
Emissions
w.o ETS
w. ETS
Exports Elec Twh
w.o ETS
w. ETS
Generation
w.o ETS
w. ETS
Imports Elec Twh
w.o ETS
w. ETS
by model
Elec Demand Twh
w.o ETS
w. ETS
Emissions
w.o ETS
w. ETS
Exports Elec Twh
w.o ETS
w. ETS
Generation
w.o ETS
w. ETS
Imports Elec Twh
w.o ETS
w. ETS
by outcome variable
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
NewZealand
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
Emissions: Growth Rates
Note: As Moritz mentioned, when looking at growth rates what we understand as “breaks” are represented by the grey impulse lines. I have therefore excluded the plots analogous to the right-hand ones above.
Pop w. Temp
AR = 0
p = 0.01
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Wed Nov 30 13:21:08 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 639
Sample: 1 to 639
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
d.lpop -0.90533863 0.95376417 -0.9492 0.3429075
g.cdd 0.00028133 0.00017097 1.6455 0.1004169
g.hdd 0.12252549 0.04116742 2.9763 0.0030415 **
idAustria -0.01073367 0.02302561 -0.4662 0.6412774
idBelgium -0.02998070 0.02310896 -1.2974 0.1950314
idCanada -0.02086813 0.02180256 -0.9571 0.3389017
idDenmark -0.09020868 0.02385207 -3.7820 0.0001720 ***
idFinland -0.02855049 0.02407204 -1.1860 0.2360991
idFrance -0.03896398 0.02329040 -1.6730 0.0948833 .
idGermany -0.03627101 0.02430831 -1.4921 0.1362199
idGreece -0.03471279 0.02428933 -1.4291 0.1535126
idIreland -0.01299665 0.02173241 -0.5980 0.5500569
idItaly -0.02645550 0.02448240 -1.0806 0.2803353
idJapan -0.00702265 0.02477142 -0.2835 0.7768981
idNetherlands -0.01544810 0.02298083 -0.6722 0.5017180
idNewZealand 0.10243995 0.05415550 1.8916 0.0590525 .
idPortugal 0.01099978 0.02586395 0.4253 0.6707830
idSpain -0.02495528 0.02268003 -1.1003 0.2716574
idSweden -0.02601557 0.02324620 -1.1191 0.2635552
idSwitzerland -0.00154799 0.02233260 -0.0693 0.9447631
idUnitedKingdom -0.04981095 0.02299384 -2.1663 0.0307040 *
idUnitedStates -0.01528634 0.02217785 -0.6893 0.4909390
time1990 0.05368508 0.02823090 1.9016 0.0577218 .
time1991 0.05812765 0.02966127 1.9597 0.0505159 .
time1992 0.02773355 0.02789401 0.9942 0.3205243
time1993 -0.01039867 0.02777209 -0.3744 0.7082245
time1994 0.07172515 0.02773034 2.5865 0.0099417 **
time1995 0.05686362 0.02744656 2.0718 0.0387338 *
time1996 0.02846453 0.02887134 0.9859 0.3245957
time1997 0.05096840 0.02825980 1.8036 0.0718273 .
time1998 0.04774865 0.02740134 1.7426 0.0819487 .
time1999 0.02928285 0.02713899 1.0790 0.2810461
time2000 0.02974041 0.02730987 1.0890 0.2766146
time2001 0.05773830 0.02768966 2.0852 0.0374961 *
time2002 0.06630316 0.02815264 2.3551 0.0188542 *
time2003 0.06157562 0.02818913 2.1844 0.0293415 *
time2004 0.02016106 0.02796311 0.7210 0.4712125
time2005 0.05233823 0.02836012 1.8455 0.0654852 .
time2006 0.00222078 0.02899065 0.0766 0.9389661
time2007 0.01749210 0.02822660 0.6197 0.5357011
time2008 -0.02130615 0.02844680 -0.7490 0.4541768
time2009 -0.04044691 0.02795370 -1.4469 0.1484677
time2010 0.05920640 0.02823350 2.0970 0.0364312 *
time2011 -0.00916574 0.02744043 -0.3340 0.7384850
time2012 0.00921377 0.02721380 0.3386 0.7350584
time2013 -0.02587488 0.02715143 -0.9530 0.3410019
time2014 -0.03780266 0.02798362 -1.3509 0.1772682
time2015 0.01736922 0.02768958 0.6273 0.5307244
time2016 0.00658984 0.02790066 0.2362 0.8133706
time2017 0.03076168 0.02771050 1.1101 0.2674201
time2018 -0.02781225 0.02809929 -0.9898 0.3226992
time2019 -0.05575433 0.02737757 -2.0365 0.0421622 *
time2020 -0.06392990 0.02759089 -2.3171 0.0208536 *
time2021 0.06761726 0.02654022 2.5477 0.0111041 *
iis116 1.12093686 0.09043222 12.3953 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis175 0.31433259 0.09047467 3.4743 0.0005512 ***
iis180 0.38643078 0.09070834 4.2601 2.390e-05 ***
iis190 0.39993832 0.09048860 4.4198 1.183e-05 ***
iis247 -0.41879794 0.09032776 -4.6364 4.399e-06 ***
iis248 0.42778968 0.09046177 4.7290 2.848e-06 ***
iis269 0.31659524 0.09027979 3.5068 0.0004892 ***
iis441 -0.32787487 0.09188391 -3.5684 0.0003895 ***
iis455 -0.36331274 0.09050490 -4.0143 6.759e-05 ***
iis470 0.36502163 0.09079147 4.0204 6.590e-05 ***
iis471 -0.31302604 0.09050539 -3.4586 0.0005834 ***
fesisPortugal.2018 -0.20759469 0.04772430 -4.3499 1.614e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.26438331 0.07328255 -3.6077 0.0003360 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 0.44859967 0.08133895 5.5152 5.290e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29360888 0.06560856 -4.4752 9.222e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 20.761 1 5.202e-06 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.777 1 1.361e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.08656
R-squared 0.50863
Log-lik.(n=639) 691.38859 p = 0.001
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0
Date: Wed Nov 30 13:21:12 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 639
Sample: 1 to 639
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
d.lpop -0.79574897 1.04217838 -0.7635 0.445449
g.cdd 0.00027994 0.00018983 1.4747 0.140831
g.hdd 0.11236440 0.04518756 2.4866 0.013176 *
idAustria -0.00988618 0.02554960 -0.3869 0.698942
idBelgium -0.02907573 0.02563995 -1.1340 0.257262
idCanada -0.02071310 0.02423490 -0.8547 0.393080
idDenmark -0.05483462 0.02591237 -2.1162 0.034756 *
idFinland -0.02679293 0.02670161 -1.0034 0.316076
idFrance -0.02815616 0.02565060 -1.0977 0.272799
idGermany -0.03503732 0.02693098 -1.3010 0.193773
idGreece -0.03350629 0.02690981 -1.2451 0.213585
idIreland -0.01285978 0.02416010 -0.5323 0.594740
idItaly -0.02519850 0.02711791 -0.9292 0.353161
idJapan -0.00577374 0.02742694 -0.2105 0.833341
idNetherlands -0.01457726 0.02550234 -0.5716 0.567811
idNewZealand -0.00487182 0.02427266 -0.2007 0.840994
idPortugal -0.03512806 0.02731987 -1.2858 0.199023
idSpain -0.02417859 0.02517901 -0.9603 0.337320
idSweden -0.02364141 0.02547406 -0.9281 0.353763
idSwitzerland -0.00086497 0.02480814 -0.0349 0.972198
idUnitedKingdom -0.04898199 0.02551580 -1.9197 0.055389 .
idUnitedStates -0.01476077 0.02464169 -0.5990 0.549395
time1990 0.05847220 0.03134188 1.8656 0.062598 .
time1991 0.07891120 0.03242927 2.4333 0.015261 *
time1992 0.03131562 0.03097529 1.0110 0.312443
time1993 -0.01934517 0.03061643 -0.6319 0.527730
time1994 0.06181496 0.03063024 2.0181 0.044040 *
time1995 0.04788610 0.03027046 1.5819 0.114207
time1996 0.06415710 0.03065572 2.0928 0.036798 *
time1997 0.02832226 0.03110236 0.9106 0.362876
time1998 0.06215034 0.02995482 2.0748 0.038444 *
time1999 0.02785867 0.03005264 0.9270 0.354314
time2000 0.02819983 0.03023738 0.9326 0.351406
time2001 0.05677427 0.03062275 1.8540 0.064247 .
time2002 0.06415472 0.03116097 2.0588 0.039957 *
time2003 0.06074447 0.03115252 1.9499 0.051668 .
time2004 0.01853889 0.03093729 0.5992 0.549246
time2005 0.05067045 0.03137838 1.6148 0.106893
time2006 0.02141177 0.03159715 0.6776 0.498264
time2007 0.01540518 0.03123740 0.4932 0.622083
time2008 -0.02248098 0.03143730 -0.7151 0.474831
time2009 -0.04182360 0.03091821 -1.3527 0.176672
time2010 0.04069978 0.03082599 1.3203 0.187252
time2011 -0.01178114 0.03042156 -0.3873 0.698703
time2012 0.00870264 0.03010540 0.2891 0.772629
time2013 -0.02720381 0.03006093 -0.9050 0.365864
time2014 -0.04055708 0.03100840 -1.3079 0.191411
time2015 0.01648937 0.03062116 0.5385 0.590441
time2016 0.00512089 0.03086477 0.1659 0.868283
time2017 0.02918155 0.03066610 0.9516 0.341701
time2018 -0.03967912 0.03101491 -1.2794 0.201282
time2019 -0.06772037 0.03024204 -2.2393 0.025515 *
time2020 -0.07666352 0.03050240 -2.5134 0.012228 *
time2021 0.05715190 0.02930564 1.9502 0.051633 .
iis116 1.11473349 0.10048661 11.0934 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis247 -0.41975264 0.10042955 -4.1796 3.37e-05 ***
iis248 0.40659964 0.10043880 4.0482 5.86e-05 ***
iis558 0.38083043 0.10055063 3.7874 0.000168 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 33.289 1 7.942e-09 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 41.299 1 1.307e-10 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.09624
R-squared 0.38079
Log-lik.(n=639) 618.11273 AR = 1
p = 0.01
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Wed Nov 30 13:22:08 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 619
Sample: 1 to 619
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 -0.23621708 0.03515868 -6.7186 4.644e-11 ***
d.lpop 4.03340052 12.39122625 0.3255 0.7449246
g.cdd -0.01316226 0.01837737 -0.7162 0.4741627
g.hdd -0.02633506 0.19391564 -0.1358 0.8920244
idAustria -0.01406382 0.02061201 -0.6823 0.4953327
idBelgium -0.03107005 0.02062907 -1.5061 0.1326155
idCanada -0.02154026 0.02062450 -1.0444 0.2967645
idDenmark -0.09894298 0.02125946 -4.6541 4.095e-06 ***
idFinland 0.04412463 0.02715150 1.6251 0.1047158
idFrance 0.12080459 0.08510454 1.4195 0.1563316
idGermany -0.03258682 0.02064173 -1.5787 0.1149904
idGreece -0.03263377 0.02063423 -1.5815 0.1143379
idIreland -0.01652562 0.02062006 -0.8014 0.4232307
idItaly -0.02249646 0.02062306 -1.0908 0.2758270
idJapan -0.00054004 0.02061049 -0.0262 0.9791057
idNetherlands -0.00847153 0.02061521 -0.4109 0.6812816
idNewZealand 0.15059540 0.06079614 2.4771 0.0135505 *
idPortugal 0.00557653 0.02188646 0.2548 0.7989790
idSpain -0.02419887 0.02062727 -1.1731 0.2412502
idSweden 0.00826880 0.03996648 0.2069 0.8361708
idSwitzerland -0.00270336 0.02079270 -0.1300 0.8966027
idUnitedKingdom -0.05547015 0.02067672 -2.6827 0.0075248 **
idUnitedStates -0.01735897 0.02080675 -0.8343 0.4044816
time1991 0.00385184 0.15610530 0.0247 0.9803236
time1992 -0.01979670 0.14930517 -0.1326 0.8945650
time1993 -0.02879737 0.14227322 -0.2024 0.8396729
time1994 0.01425099 0.13790875 0.1033 0.9177341
time1995 0.02033136 0.13090739 0.1553 0.8766338
time1996 -0.00904750 0.13207880 -0.0685 0.9454122
time1997 -0.00902635 0.12596331 -0.0717 0.9429000
time1998 0.03905303 0.10951313 0.3566 0.7215254
time1999 -0.00409152 0.10393533 -0.0394 0.9686130
time2000 -0.01393291 0.11760777 -0.1185 0.9057396
time2001 0.01751475 0.13616395 0.1286 0.8976982
time2002 0.01837946 0.13725057 0.1339 0.8935220
time2003 0.02899244 0.11529659 0.2515 0.8015539
time2004 -0.02361759 0.11803319 -0.2001 0.8414829
time2005 0.02053936 0.12136656 0.1692 0.8656755
time2006 -0.04591554 0.12754133 -0.3600 0.7189832
time2007 -0.02925005 0.12365926 -0.2365 0.8131048
time2008 -0.07168681 0.13552008 -0.5290 0.5970386
time2009 -0.10206402 0.14302459 -0.7136 0.4757739
time2010 -0.00063807 0.14116975 -0.0045 0.9963954
time2011 -0.06193900 0.12437863 -0.4980 0.6186945
time2012 -0.03821173 0.13633415 -0.2803 0.7793695
time2013 -0.07589334 0.13386364 -0.5669 0.5709857
time2014 -0.11250070 0.12728197 -0.8839 0.3771576
time2015 -0.02683806 0.09768316 -0.2747 0.7836159
time2016 -0.04048271 0.14011279 -0.2889 0.7727456
time2017 -0.03200931 0.15008634 -0.2133 0.8311944
time2018 -0.07961406 0.17634980 -0.4515 0.6518417
time2019 -0.12470690 0.16809179 -0.7419 0.4584701
time2020 -0.15775597 0.17327348 -0.9104 0.3629919
time2021 0.00442094 0.16616044 0.0266 0.9787834
iis125 0.36854723 0.08529472 4.3209 1.849e-05 ***
iis130 0.37189307 0.08514324 4.3679 1.503e-05 ***
iis140 0.37416436 0.08501332 4.4012 1.296e-05 ***
iis163 -0.34513266 0.08671725 -3.9800 7.829e-05 ***
iis170 -0.41475716 0.08607046 -4.8188 1.877e-06 ***
iis171 0.36142180 0.08743402 4.1337 4.135e-05 ***
iis194 0.25491265 0.08512270 2.9946 0.0028729 **
iis440 -0.24554962 0.08535277 -2.8769 0.0041742 **
iis443 0.23301764 0.08506781 2.7392 0.0063613 **
iis454 -0.30597752 0.08516505 -3.5928 0.0003569 ***
iis502 0.49804052 0.09341212 5.3316 1.430e-07 ***
iis516 0.27255668 0.08551494 3.1872 0.0015190 **
iis528 0.40001845 0.09380787 4.2642 2.366e-05 ***
fesisFinland.2005 -0.10009693 0.03167789 -3.1598 0.0016665 **
fesisFrance.1992 -0.35420167 0.09653464 -3.6692 0.0002673 ***
fesisFrance.1995 0.21733407 0.05107321 4.2553 2.459e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.33978525 0.07622777 -4.4575 1.008e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 0.49121483 0.07623883 6.4431 2.583e-10 ***
fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.30919525 0.06144111 -5.0324 6.597e-07 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -0.25705289 0.05119614 -5.0209 6.984e-07 ***
fesisSweden.1996 -0.18191294 0.05601047 -3.2478 0.0012347 **
fesisSweden.2001 0.15492715 0.04566958 3.3923 0.0007435 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 1.0435 1 0.3069974
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.1912 1 0.0002813 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.08114
R-squared 0.49875
Log-lik.(n=619) 714.31742 p = 0.001
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1
Date: Wed Nov 30 13:22:12 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 619
Sample: 1 to 619
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 -0.17943222 0.03539532 -5.0694 5.441e-07 ***
d.lpop 4.11794035 13.92322421 0.2958 0.7675232
g.cdd -0.01383311 0.02065403 -0.6698 0.5032924
g.hdd -0.02240746 0.21785727 -0.1029 0.9181160
idAustria -0.01365869 0.02316839 -0.5895 0.5557383
idBelgium -0.02965612 0.02318377 -1.2792 0.2013678
idCanada -0.02031230 0.02317966 -0.8763 0.3812455
idDenmark 0.05860890 0.04144181 1.4142 0.1578484
idFinland -0.01952512 0.02358433 -0.8279 0.4080900
idFrance -0.02296149 0.02318577 -0.9903 0.3224444
idGermany -0.03075312 0.02319519 -1.3258 0.1854361
idGreece -0.03103530 0.02318843 -1.3384 0.1813134
idIreland -0.01551103 0.02317564 -0.6693 0.5035932
idItaly -0.02133335 0.02317836 -0.9204 0.3577625
idJapan -0.00056129 0.02316702 -0.0242 0.9806794
idNetherlands -0.00775848 0.02317128 -0.3348 0.7378781
idNewZealand 0.13431409 0.06813308 1.9713 0.0491785 *
idPortugal -0.00570595 0.02381221 -0.2396 0.8107107
idSpain -0.02285513 0.02318215 -0.9859 0.3246135
idSweden -0.01372563 0.02317197 -0.5923 0.5538648
idSwitzerland 0.00814381 0.02320246 0.3510 0.7257293
idUnitedKingdom -0.05279923 0.02322676 -2.2732 0.0233936 *
idUnitedStates -0.01497216 0.02338217 -0.6403 0.5222255
time1991 0.04213611 0.17511439 0.2406 0.8099378
time1992 -0.03920821 0.16771436 -0.2338 0.8152419
time1993 -0.04432113 0.15981849 -0.2773 0.7816360
time1994 0.00034764 0.15490703 0.0022 0.9982102
time1995 0.01330070 0.14709142 0.0904 0.9279822
time1996 0.00685686 0.14819873 0.0463 0.9631132
time1997 -0.01700298 0.14151366 -0.1202 0.9044070
time1998 0.02937775 0.12275693 0.2393 0.8109483
time1999 -0.00035327 0.11665228 -0.0030 0.9975848
time2000 -0.02057803 0.13210916 -0.1558 0.8762744
time2001 0.01993180 0.15300879 0.1303 0.8964032
time2002 0.01810310 0.15422505 0.1174 0.9066004
time2003 0.02898543 0.12955567 0.2237 0.8230498
time2004 -0.02409642 0.13263744 -0.1817 0.8559067
time2005 0.02058905 0.13639127 0.1510 0.8800653
time2006 -0.04915601 0.14333559 -0.3429 0.7317703
time2007 -0.03330369 0.13896210 -0.2397 0.8106818
time2008 -0.07408469 0.15228996 -0.4865 0.6268244
time2009 -0.10286740 0.16071829 -0.6400 0.5224047
time2010 -0.00082591 0.15846277 -0.0052 0.9958433
time2011 -0.06672608 0.13977605 -0.4774 0.6332799
time2012 -0.03800418 0.15320627 -0.2481 0.8041803
time2013 -0.07913078 0.15042385 -0.5261 0.5990614
time2014 -0.11292042 0.14302214 -0.7895 0.4301377
time2015 -0.02458914 0.10976736 -0.2240 0.8228306
time2016 -0.04306940 0.15746008 -0.2735 0.7845504
time2017 -0.03438104 0.16865599 -0.2039 0.8385428
time2018 -0.08286908 0.19817112 -0.4182 0.6759845
time2019 -0.12614702 0.18887865 -0.6679 0.5044911
time2020 -0.15716228 0.19469187 -0.8072 0.4198751
time2021 0.00619614 0.18669043 0.0332 0.9735354
iis140 0.38976079 0.09576476 4.0700 5.382e-05 ***
iis170 -0.44482176 0.09529288 -4.6679 3.816e-06 ***
iis171 0.35035473 0.09664635 3.6251 0.0003153 ***
fesisDenmark.1997 -0.16250268 0.04284960 -3.7924 0.0001655 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.30925750 0.08549381 -3.6173 0.0003247 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 0.46711199 0.08549627 5.4635 7.047e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29926106 0.06889159 -4.3439 1.663e-05 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -0.23363640 0.05718102 -4.0859 5.036e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 6.6135 1 0.01012 *
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.4352 1 8.538e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.09121
R-squared 0.35036
Log-lik.(n=619) 634.93804 Standard Controls
AR = 0
p = 0.01
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Wed Nov 30 00:44:53 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
d.lgdp_wb -3.1350927 3.1396766 -0.9985 0.3184398
d.lpop -1.1408070 0.9726524 -1.1729 0.2413311
d.lgdp_wb_sq 0.0645870 0.0586931 1.1004 0.2716130
idAustria -0.0060396 0.0236281 -0.2556 0.7983440
idBelgium -0.0254081 0.0236590 -1.0739 0.2833060
idCanada -0.0203857 0.0221860 -0.9189 0.3585585
idDenmark -0.0733300 0.0243241 -3.0147 0.0026863 **
idFinland -0.0182887 0.0246111 -0.7431 0.4577209
idFrance -0.0368334 0.0237444 -1.5512 0.1213960
idGermany -0.0354497 0.0247690 -1.4312 0.1529148
idGreece -0.0275650 0.0250552 -1.1002 0.2717210
idIreland -0.0143867 0.0241394 -0.5960 0.5514227
idItaly -0.0208881 0.0251263 -0.8313 0.4061380
idJapan -0.0048048 0.0253135 -0.1898 0.8495245
idNetherlands -0.0127448 0.0234055 -0.5445 0.5862940
idNewZealand 0.1216560 0.0553040 2.1998 0.0282227 *
idPortugal 0.0173402 0.0265890 0.6522 0.5145622
idSpain -0.0219192 0.0231029 -0.9488 0.3431399
idSweden -0.0161690 0.0234192 -0.6904 0.4902129
idSwitzerland 0.0029271 0.0228581 0.1281 0.8981489
idUnitedKingdom -0.0491708 0.0234260 -2.0990 0.0362563 *
idUnitedStates -0.0241518 0.0234237 -1.0311 0.3029358
time1990 0.0425208 0.0291076 1.4608 0.1446158
time1991 0.0845328 0.0293890 2.8763 0.0041731 **
time1992 0.0169578 0.0284944 0.5951 0.5519942
time1993 -0.0105121 0.0282665 -0.3719 0.7101099
time1994 0.0538802 0.0288582 1.8671 0.0624037 .
time1995 0.0472093 0.0287474 1.6422 0.1010958
time1996 0.0299856 0.0297592 1.0076 0.3140679
time1997 0.0207459 0.0294949 0.7034 0.4821095
time1998 0.0321039 0.0289362 1.1095 0.2676942
time1999 0.0167225 0.0288419 0.5798 0.5622791
time2000 0.0103152 0.0293847 0.3510 0.7256882
time2001 0.0555726 0.0285484 1.9466 0.0520710 .
time2002 0.0512634 0.0288533 1.7767 0.0761500 .
time2003 0.0625884 0.0288395 2.1702 0.0304000 *
time2004 0.0057064 0.0293699 0.1943 0.8460141
time2005 0.0396693 0.0294477 1.3471 0.1784772
time2006 -0.0143028 0.0303788 -0.4708 0.6379523
time2007 -0.0016852 0.0294913 -0.0571 0.9544530
time2008 -0.0180232 0.0289028 -0.6236 0.5331535
time2009 -0.0249259 0.0292690 -0.8516 0.3947848
time2010 0.0612127 0.0289991 2.1108 0.0352189 *
time2011 -0.0329909 0.0276554 -1.1929 0.2333924
time2012 0.0158960 0.0275601 0.5768 0.5643178
time2013 -0.0308761 0.0277539 -1.1125 0.2663919
time2014 -0.0634707 0.0283756 -2.2368 0.0256833 *
time2015 0.0118713 0.0288982 0.4108 0.6813753
time2016 -0.0020533 0.0288227 -0.0712 0.9432333
time2017 0.0169671 0.0289767 0.5855 0.5584129
time2018 -0.0305213 0.0286821 -1.0641 0.2877208
time2019 -0.0674908 0.0282638 -2.3879 0.0172691 *
time2020 -0.0563348 0.0294840 -1.9107 0.0565437 .
time2021 0.0556418 0.0295972 1.8800 0.0606201 .
iis117 1.1227572 0.0917480 12.2374 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis181 0.3801155 0.0920884 4.1277 4.209e-05 ***
iis191 0.3895118 0.0919096 4.2380 2.629e-05 ***
iis248 -0.4277926 0.0917430 -4.6629 3.884e-06 ***
iis249 0.4274931 0.0919168 4.6509 4.109e-06 ***
iis270 0.3203600 0.0917539 3.4915 0.0005174 ***
iis442 -0.2886445 0.0924110 -3.1235 0.0018776 **
iis456 -0.3596849 0.0919539 -3.9116 0.0001027 ***
iis471 0.3615785 0.0921818 3.9224 9.830e-05 ***
iis472 -0.3103655 0.0919342 -3.3760 0.0007855 ***
fesisPortugal.2018 -0.2107832 0.0484906 -4.3469 1.634e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.2867605 0.0752853 -3.8090 0.0001546 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 0.4674166 0.0829637 5.6340 2.765e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.3031375 0.0667202 -4.5434 6.756e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 18.214 1 1.974e-05 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 29.859 1 4.647e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.08793
R-squared 0.49115
Log-lik.(n=640) 681.84175 p = 0.001
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0
Date: Wed Nov 30 00:44:54 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 640
Sample: 1 to 640
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
d.lgdp_wb -4.45842311 3.41696412 -1.3048 0.192480
d.lpop -0.82532134 1.04997102 -0.7860 0.432163
d.lgdp_wb_sq 0.08785803 0.06393628 1.3741 0.169924
idAustria -0.00292956 0.02590901 -0.1131 0.910013
idBelgium -0.02240117 0.02594188 -0.8635 0.388211
idCanada -0.02005955 0.02437193 -0.8231 0.410811
idDenmark -0.04580018 0.02628220 -1.7426 0.081926 .
idFinland -0.01391416 0.02697386 -0.5158 0.606163
idFrance -0.02518428 0.02585252 -0.9742 0.330386
idGermany -0.03305475 0.02713569 -1.2181 0.223669
idGreece -0.02415476 0.02744780 -0.8800 0.379209
idIreland -0.00831513 0.02643688 -0.3145 0.753233
idItaly -0.01813347 0.02752724 -0.6587 0.510319
idJapan -0.00215262 0.02772417 -0.0776 0.938138
idNetherlands -0.01009702 0.02566871 -0.3934 0.694198
idNewZealand 0.00388948 0.02534449 0.1535 0.878085
idPortugal -0.02489983 0.02776519 -0.8968 0.370196
idSpain -0.02008571 0.02535120 -0.7923 0.428510
idSweden -0.01190028 0.02538861 -0.4687 0.639442
idSwitzerland 0.00457649 0.02509627 0.1824 0.855366
idUnitedKingdom -0.04776157 0.02569927 -1.8585 0.063606 .
idUnitedStates -0.02598626 0.02571277 -1.0106 0.312610
time1990 0.04688732 0.03191212 1.4693 0.142302
time1991 0.08637252 0.03224275 2.6788 0.007597 **
time1992 0.01942172 0.03126243 0.6212 0.534680
time1993 -0.02226433 0.03082031 -0.7224 0.470344
time1994 0.04414984 0.03154644 1.3995 0.162190
time1995 0.03778719 0.03143336 1.2021 0.229799
time1996 0.06606512 0.03116222 2.1200 0.034425 *
time1997 -0.00066214 0.03206769 -0.0206 0.983533
time1998 0.04703582 0.03136833 1.4995 0.134294
time1999 0.01588070 0.03160749 0.5024 0.615552
time2000 0.00919167 0.03219977 0.2855 0.775395
time2001 0.05312581 0.03125395 1.6998 0.089701 .
time2002 0.04844407 0.03157298 1.5344 0.125486
time2003 0.05942974 0.03155434 1.8834 0.060143 .
time2004 0.00346755 0.03215638 0.1078 0.914165
time2005 0.03677587 0.03222985 1.1410 0.254318
time2006 0.00368889 0.03281136 0.1124 0.910523
time2007 -0.00422817 0.03228234 -0.1310 0.895841
time2008 -0.02245629 0.03158924 -0.7109 0.477441
time2009 -0.03078621 0.03194887 -0.9636 0.335642
time2010 0.04003731 0.03135970 1.2767 0.202213
time2011 -0.03626525 0.03028027 -1.1977 0.231540
time2012 0.01180419 0.03015387 0.3915 0.695597
time2013 -0.03438628 0.03037539 -1.1320 0.258082
time2014 -0.06622142 0.03106622 -2.1316 0.033456 *
time2015 0.00983466 0.03164700 0.3108 0.756093
time2016 -0.00519091 0.03154206 -0.1646 0.869339
time2017 0.01440682 0.03172648 0.4541 0.649930
time2018 -0.04364990 0.03133948 -1.3928 0.164209
time2019 -0.08077136 0.03087893 -2.6157 0.009134 **
time2020 -0.07211777 0.03213128 -2.2445 0.025177 *
time2021 0.04472027 0.03240383 1.3801 0.168088
iis117 1.11614197 0.10075670 11.0776 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis248 -0.42739820 0.10079301 -4.2404 2.595e-05 ***
iis249 0.40811010 0.10083472 4.0473 5.881e-05 ***
iis559 0.40290351 0.10088178 3.9938 7.335e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 29.529 1 5.509e-08 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 41.871 1 9.751e-11 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.09661
R-squared 0.37500
Log-lik.(n=640) 616.59638 AR = 1
p = 0.01
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Wed Nov 30 00:45:38 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 -2.3566e-01 3.5000e-02 -6.7333 4.205e-11 ***
d.lgdp_wb -4.6646e+03 1.3275e+03 -3.5137 0.0004785 ***
d.lpop -7.3213e+00 1.7007e+00 -4.3049 1.980e-05 ***
d.lgdp_wb_sq 7.7998e+01 2.2179e+01 3.5167 0.0004732 ***
idAustria -1.4060e-02 2.0549e-02 -0.6842 0.4941398
idBelgium -3.1056e-02 2.0566e-02 -1.5100 0.1316082
idCanada -2.1528e-02 2.0562e-02 -1.0470 0.2955615
idDenmark -9.9014e-02 2.1194e-02 -4.6718 3.763e-06 ***
idFinland 4.4178e-02 2.7067e-02 1.6322 0.1032203
idFrance 1.2180e-01 8.4692e-02 1.4381 0.1509754
idGermany -3.2569e-02 2.0579e-02 -1.5826 0.1140835
idGreece -3.2618e-02 2.0571e-02 -1.5856 0.1134082
idIreland -1.6516e-02 2.0557e-02 -0.8034 0.4220958
idItaly -2.2485e-02 2.0560e-02 -1.0936 0.2746065
idJapan -5.4025e-04 2.0548e-02 -0.0263 0.9790339
idNetherlands -8.4645e-03 2.0553e-02 -0.4118 0.6806117
idNewZealand 1.5126e-01 6.0556e-02 2.4979 0.0127874 *
idPortugal 5.5842e-03 2.1820e-02 0.2559 0.7981055
idSpain -2.4186e-02 2.0565e-02 -1.1761 0.2400716
idSweden 8.3105e-03 3.9832e-02 0.2086 0.8348098
idSwitzerland -2.7337e-03 2.0729e-02 -0.1319 0.8951292
idUnitedKingdom -5.5444e-02 2.0614e-02 -2.6897 0.0073707 **
idUnitedStates -1.7907e-02 2.0557e-02 -0.8711 0.3841027
time1991 -7.7901e+00 2.2830e+00 -3.4122 0.0006922 ***
time1992 3.5024e+00 9.6804e-01 3.6180 0.0003244 ***
time1993 9.9064e+00 2.8224e+00 3.5099 0.0004853 ***
time1994 1.6357e+01 4.6590e+00 3.5108 0.0004836 ***
time1995 9.7936e+00 2.7742e+00 3.5302 0.0004502 ***
time1996 5.8967e+00 1.6598e+00 3.5526 0.0004144 ***
time1997 1.5005e+01 4.2820e+00 3.5043 0.0004954 ***
time1998 1.3480e+01 3.8373e+00 3.5130 0.0004798 ***
time1999 1.7325e+01 4.9560e+00 3.4957 0.0005112 ***
time2000 1.6984e+01 4.8568e+00 3.4970 0.0005088 ***
time2001 5.9757e+00 1.6779e+00 3.5613 0.0004011 ***
time2002 9.8161e+00 2.7829e+00 3.5273 0.0004551 ***
time2003 5.8791e+00 1.6513e+00 3.5604 0.0004025 ***
time2004 9.7565e+00 2.7812e+00 3.5080 0.0004885 ***
time2005 9.9904e+00 2.8420e+00 3.5153 0.0004757 ***
time2006 8.0994e+00 2.3092e+00 3.5075 0.0004895 ***
time2007 6.3360e+00 1.7994e+00 3.5212 0.0004655 ***
time2008 3.0789e+00 8.6853e-01 3.5449 0.0004263 ***
time2009 -9.0059e+00 2.6067e+00 -3.4550 0.0005931 ***
time2010 9.3746e+00 2.6639e+00 3.5191 0.0004691 ***
time2011 9.3240e+00 2.6695e+00 3.4928 0.0005166 ***
time2012 5.2434e+00 1.4843e+00 3.5326 0.0004462 ***
time2013 6.7803e+00 1.9379e+00 3.4987 0.0005056 ***
time2014 8.1657e+00 2.3504e+00 3.4742 0.0005529 ***
time2015 1.9326e+00 5.3908e-01 3.5851 0.0003671 ***
time2016 2.9187e+00 8.1422e-01 3.5847 0.0003677 ***
time2017 8.5328e+00 2.4266e+00 3.5164 0.0004737 ***
time2018 6.7224e+00 1.9154e+00 3.5096 0.0004857 ***
iis125 3.6951e-01 8.4876e-02 4.3535 1.600e-05 ***
iis130 3.7260e-01 8.4877e-02 4.3899 1.362e-05 ***
iis140 3.7566e-01 8.4734e-02 4.4334 1.122e-05 ***
iis163 -3.4578e-01 8.6445e-02 -4.0000 7.205e-05 ***
iis170 -4.1584e-01 8.5795e-02 -4.8469 1.636e-06 ***
iis171 3.6301e-01 8.7147e-02 4.1654 3.611e-05 ***
iis194 2.5433e-01 8.4854e-02 2.9972 0.0028483 **
iis440 -2.4507e-01 8.5089e-02 -2.8802 0.0041305 **
iis443 2.3312e-01 8.4790e-02 2.7494 0.0061687 **
iis454 -3.0676e-01 8.4896e-02 -3.6133 0.0003302 ***
iis502 4.9873e-01 9.3122e-02 5.3557 1.257e-07 ***
iis516 2.7177e-01 8.5245e-02 3.1881 0.0015138 **
iis528 4.0033e-01 9.3370e-02 4.2876 2.135e-05 ***
fesisFinland.2005 -1.0017e-01 3.1577e-02 -3.1722 0.0015978 **
fesisFrance.1992 -3.5519e-01 9.6105e-02 -3.6959 0.0002412 ***
fesisFrance.1995 2.1734e-01 5.0917e-02 4.2685 2.320e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.4079e-01 7.5948e-02 -4.4872 8.801e-06 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 4.9163e-01 7.6005e-02 6.4685 2.199e-10 ***
fesisNewZealand.1998 -3.0929e-01 6.1253e-02 -5.0494 6.045e-07 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -2.5694e-01 5.1039e-02 -5.0342 6.525e-07 ***
fesisSweden.1996 -1.8204e-01 5.5829e-02 -3.2606 0.0011810 **
fesisSweden.2001 1.5503e-01 4.5530e-02 3.4051 0.0007099 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 1.0742 1 0.2999913
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.1815 1 0.0002827 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.08090
R-squared 0.49816
Log-lik.(n=620) 715.79645 p = 0.001
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1
Date: Wed Nov 30 00:45:40 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 620
Sample: 1 to 620
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 -1.7837e-01 3.5240e-02 -5.0616 5.645e-07 ***
d.lgdp_wb -4.8120e+03 1.4921e+03 -3.2250 0.0013330 **
d.lpop -7.1644e+00 1.9083e+00 -3.7544 0.0001919 ***
d.lgdp_wb_sq 8.0461e+01 2.4928e+01 3.2277 0.0013207 **
idAustria -1.3651e-02 2.3105e-02 -0.5908 0.5548729
idBelgium -2.9630e-02 2.3120e-02 -1.2815 0.2005321
idCanada -2.0289e-02 2.3116e-02 -0.8777 0.3804766
idDenmark 5.9021e-02 4.1321e-02 1.4283 0.1537533
idFinland -1.9525e-02 2.3520e-02 -0.8301 0.4068149
idFrance -2.2934e-02 2.3122e-02 -0.9918 0.3217050
idGermany -3.0719e-02 2.3132e-02 -1.3280 0.1847182
idGreece -3.1005e-02 2.3125e-02 -1.3408 0.1805349
idIreland -1.5492e-02 2.3112e-02 -0.6703 0.5029441
idItaly -2.1312e-02 2.3115e-02 -0.9220 0.3569329
idJapan -5.6169e-04 2.3104e-02 -0.0243 0.9806126
idNetherlands -7.7451e-03 2.3108e-02 -0.3352 0.7376197
idNewZealand 1.3600e-01 6.7903e-02 2.0028 0.0456778 *
idPortugal -5.6950e-03 2.3747e-02 -0.2398 0.8105581
idSpain -2.2830e-02 2.3119e-02 -0.9875 0.3238170
idSweden -1.3711e-02 2.3109e-02 -0.5933 0.5531924
idSwitzerland 8.1053e-03 2.3139e-02 0.3503 0.7262517
idUnitedKingdom -5.2749e-02 2.3163e-02 -2.2773 0.0231435 *
idUnitedStates -1.6885e-02 2.3112e-02 -0.7306 0.4653558
time1991 -8.0077e+00 2.5661e+00 -3.1206 0.0018976 **
time1992 3.5905e+00 1.0881e+00 3.2998 0.0010288 **
time1993 1.0203e+01 3.1723e+00 3.2161 0.0013741 **
time1994 1.6859e+01 5.2364e+00 3.2196 0.0013579 **
time1995 1.0094e+01 3.1181e+00 3.2371 0.0012787 **
time1996 6.0969e+00 1.8656e+00 3.2681 0.0011488 **
time1997 1.5472e+01 4.8127e+00 3.2147 0.0013808 **
time1998 1.3895e+01 4.3129e+00 3.2217 0.0013481 **
time1999 1.7878e+01 5.5703e+00 3.2095 0.0014054 **
time2000 1.7516e+01 5.4587e+00 3.2089 0.0014088 **
time2001 6.1633e+00 1.8859e+00 3.2680 0.0011492 **
time2002 1.0124e+01 3.1278e+00 3.2368 0.0012802 **
time2003 6.0623e+00 1.8559e+00 3.2664 0.0011557 **
time2004 1.0064e+01 3.1259e+00 3.2196 0.0013578 **
time2005 1.0304e+01 3.1943e+00 3.2259 0.0013290 **
time2006 8.3518e+00 2.5954e+00 3.2179 0.0013657 **
time2007 6.5315e+00 2.0225e+00 3.2295 0.0013126 **
time2008 3.1727e+00 9.7621e-01 3.2500 0.0012231 **
time2009 -9.2960e+00 2.9297e+00 -3.1730 0.0015914 **
time2010 9.6685e+00 2.9941e+00 3.2292 0.0013139 **
time2011 9.6152e+00 3.0004e+00 3.2047 0.0014290 **
time2012 5.4074e+00 1.6683e+00 3.2414 0.0012601 **
time2013 6.9921e+00 2.1782e+00 3.2101 0.0014027 **
time2014 8.4259e+00 2.6417e+00 3.1896 0.0015041 **
time2015 1.9940e+00 6.0589e-01 3.2910 0.0010609 **
time2016 3.0056e+00 9.1517e-01 3.2842 0.0010864 **
time2017 8.7994e+00 2.7273e+00 3.2264 0.0013267 **
time2018 6.9308e+00 2.1529e+00 3.2193 0.0013592 **
iis140 3.9135e-01 9.5480e-02 4.0988 4.767e-05 ***
iis170 -4.4600e-01 9.5015e-02 -4.6940 3.370e-06 ***
iis171 3.5213e-01 9.6358e-02 3.6544 0.0002820 ***
fesisDenmark.1997 -1.6300e-01 4.2722e-02 -3.8154 0.0001511 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.1133e-01 8.5221e-02 -3.6532 0.0002833 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 4.6745e-01 8.5260e-02 5.4826 6.344e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9930e-01 6.8701e-02 -4.3566 1.571e-05 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -2.3351e-01 5.7024e-02 -4.0949 4.845e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 6.8468 1 0.00888 **
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.5185 1 8.17e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.09096
R-squared 0.34932
Log-lik.(n=620) 636.11219 Standard Controls w. Temp
AR = 0
p = 0.01
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0
Date: Wed Nov 30 13:19:18 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 639
Sample: 1 to 639
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
d.lgdp_wb -2.98274353 3.09053623 -0.9651 0.3348946
d.lpop -1.10437998 0.95844186 -1.1523 0.2496965
d.lgdp_wb_sq 0.06159057 0.05777955 1.0660 0.2868955
g.cdd 0.00028884 0.00017082 1.6909 0.0914127 .
g.hdd 0.12148326 0.04113144 2.9535 0.0032716 **
idAustria -0.00537193 0.02323127 -0.2312 0.8172140
idBelgium -0.02506704 0.02326290 -1.0776 0.2816901
idCanada -0.01865244 0.02181651 -0.8550 0.3929288
idDenmark -0.08447756 0.02407491 -3.5089 0.0004855 ***
idFinland -0.02228241 0.02434267 -0.9154 0.3603887
idFrance -0.03611585 0.02334615 -1.5470 0.1224269
idGermany -0.03469285 0.02435760 -1.4243 0.1549050
idGreece -0.02675075 0.02463666 -1.0858 0.2780234
idIreland -0.01340612 0.02373233 -0.5649 0.5723727
idItaly -0.02001450 0.02470701 -0.8101 0.4182372
idJapan -0.00288882 0.02489176 -0.1161 0.9076496
idNetherlands -0.01250095 0.02301396 -0.5432 0.5872123
idNewZealand 0.11508736 0.05450777 2.1114 0.0351747 *
idPortugal 0.01779339 0.02614816 0.6805 0.4964757
idSpain -0.02176098 0.02271555 -0.9580 0.3384819
idSweden -0.02217730 0.02334975 -0.9498 0.3426242
idSwitzerland 0.00355039 0.02247267 0.1580 0.8745233
idUnitedKingdom -0.04874390 0.02303753 -2.1158 0.0347923 *
idUnitedStates -0.02196256 0.02324705 -0.9447 0.3451903
time1990 0.04149716 0.02899914 1.4310 0.1529861
time1991 0.05265803 0.02976672 1.7690 0.0774265 .
time1992 0.02122204 0.02807377 0.7559 0.4499996
time1993 -0.01442496 0.02782223 -0.5185 0.6043330
time1994 0.05892884 0.02858601 2.0615 0.0397139 *
time1995 0.04473051 0.02827578 1.5819 0.1142205
time1996 0.01699300 0.02953957 0.5753 0.5653419
time1997 0.03581433 0.02949245 1.2144 0.2251165
time1998 0.03392812 0.02845829 1.1922 0.2336786
time1999 0.01396276 0.02844281 0.4909 0.6236823
time2000 0.01239875 0.02890099 0.4290 0.6680802
time2001 0.04834068 0.02813405 1.7182 0.0863002 .
time2002 0.05803582 0.02848251 2.0376 0.0420533 *
time2003 0.05338281 0.02849782 1.8732 0.0615507 .
time2004 0.00668073 0.02888296 0.2313 0.8171622
time2005 0.04105322 0.02896348 1.4174 0.1569104
time2006 -0.01164423 0.02990350 -0.3894 0.6971312
time2007 0.00431801 0.02908127 0.1485 0.8820160
time2008 -0.02460719 0.02847385 -0.8642 0.3878412
time2009 -0.02781738 0.02880416 -0.9657 0.3345844
time2010 0.04796099 0.02883159 1.6635 0.0967664 .
time2011 -0.01702111 0.02774715 -0.6134 0.5398335
time2012 0.00609570 0.02728378 0.2234 0.8232902
time2013 -0.03142094 0.02729045 -1.1514 0.2500716
time2014 -0.04766817 0.02844115 -1.6760 0.0942830 .
time2015 0.00483751 0.02850062 0.1697 0.8652802
time2016 -0.00308325 0.02834095 -0.1088 0.9134065
time2017 0.01812253 0.02849703 0.6359 0.5250688
time2018 -0.03947290 0.02875133 -1.3729 0.1703231
time2019 -0.06520486 0.02780617 -2.3450 0.0193715 *
time2020 -0.04559936 0.02927847 -1.5574 0.1199239
time2021 0.04420816 0.02935463 1.5060 0.1326223
iis116 1.11834350 0.09033129 12.3805 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis175 0.31164598 0.09036989 3.4486 0.0006054 ***
iis180 0.38659990 0.09059715 4.2672 2.319e-05 ***
iis190 0.39844913 0.09041353 4.4070 1.254e-05 ***
iis247 -0.41958434 0.09023391 -4.6500 4.133e-06 ***
iis248 0.42675151 0.09041570 4.7199 2.975e-06 ***
iis269 0.31080882 0.09024756 3.4440 0.0006155 ***
iis441 -0.32874343 0.09183052 -3.5799 0.0003732 ***
iis455 -0.36253565 0.09040165 -4.0103 6.875e-05 ***
iis470 0.36875788 0.09070090 4.0656 5.466e-05 ***
iis471 -0.31023412 0.09039930 -3.4318 0.0006432 ***
fesisPortugal.2018 -0.20865647 0.04768933 -4.3753 1.443e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.27175856 0.07428704 -3.6582 0.0002776 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 0.45551415 0.08164705 5.5791 3.746e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29948845 0.06560163 -4.5653 6.120e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 21.708 1 3.174e-06 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.628 1 1.470e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.08644
R-squared 0.51164
Log-lik.(n=639) 693.22970 p = 0.001
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0
Date: Wed Nov 30 13:19:20 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 639
Sample: 1 to 639
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
d.lgdp_wb -4.30109024 3.40646912 -1.2626 0.207233
d.lpop -0.97799600 1.04700759 -0.9341 0.350648
d.lgdp_wb_sq 0.08500802 0.06374447 1.3336 0.182868
g.cdd 0.00028888 0.00018977 1.5223 0.128474
g.hdd 0.11064888 0.04517963 2.4491 0.014617 *
idAustria -0.00373560 0.02579203 -0.1448 0.884891
idBelgium -0.02354815 0.02582666 -0.9118 0.362266
idCanada -0.01889609 0.02426545 -0.7787 0.436461
idDenmark -0.04834584 0.02618258 -1.8465 0.065331 .
idFinland -0.01964097 0.02701777 -0.7270 0.467541
idFrance -0.02622474 0.02573705 -1.0189 0.308653
idGermany -0.03435853 0.02701628 -1.2718 0.203965
idGreece -0.02531710 0.02732573 -0.9265 0.354576
idIreland -0.00815809 0.02631637 -0.3100 0.756672
idItaly -0.01930485 0.02740461 -0.7044 0.481443
idJapan -0.00252207 0.02759823 -0.0914 0.927218
idNetherlands -0.01129572 0.02555484 -0.4420 0.658641
idNewZealand 0.00455463 0.02523081 0.1805 0.856808
idPortugal -0.02759581 0.02765896 -0.9977 0.318833
idSpain -0.02113422 0.02523823 -0.8374 0.402719
idSweden -0.01892073 0.02561242 -0.7387 0.460369
idSwitzerland 0.00435228 0.02498173 0.1742 0.861755
idUnitedKingdom -0.04880508 0.02558795 -1.9073 0.056970 .
idUnitedStates -0.02443777 0.02583649 -0.9459 0.344613
time1990 0.04768365 0.03218263 1.4817 0.138975
time1991 0.07360748 0.03257271 2.2598 0.024205 *
time1992 0.02501749 0.03118641 0.8022 0.422771
time1993 -0.02349596 0.03069973 -0.7653 0.444377
time1994 0.05034728 0.03167455 1.5895 0.112489
time1995 0.03740442 0.03129693 1.1951 0.232519
time1996 0.05441419 0.03144418 1.7305 0.084074 .
time1997 0.01501924 0.03254427 0.4615 0.644612
time1998 0.04959450 0.03123730 1.5877 0.112907
time1999 0.01428423 0.03156252 0.4526 0.651028
time2000 0.01246054 0.03207241 0.3885 0.697780
time2001 0.04818286 0.03116753 1.5459 0.122667
time2002 0.05656097 0.03157527 1.7913 0.073766 .
time2003 0.05299176 0.03154218 1.6800 0.093491 .
time2004 0.00612553 0.03202272 0.1913 0.848368
time2005 0.03986573 0.03210207 1.2418 0.214797
time2006 0.00833630 0.03270905 0.2549 0.798920
time2007 0.00310299 0.03224852 0.0962 0.923378
time2008 -0.02622882 0.03148934 -0.8329 0.405221
time2009 -0.03084864 0.03182248 -0.9694 0.332752
time2010 0.02954675 0.03154034 0.9368 0.349256
time2011 -0.02015522 0.03079241 -0.6546 0.513016
time2012 0.00464269 0.03019454 0.1538 0.877853
time2013 -0.03317173 0.03024117 -1.0969 0.273138
time2014 -0.05013821 0.03156071 -1.5886 0.112690
time2015 0.00506010 0.03158275 0.1602 0.872766
time2016 -0.00425752 0.03140117 -0.1356 0.892197
time2017 0.01717553 0.03159606 0.5436 0.586928
time2018 -0.05093476 0.03179704 -1.6019 0.109730
time2019 -0.07694378 0.03076766 -2.5008 0.012666 *
time2020 -0.05983853 0.03233065 -1.8508 0.064703 .
time2021 0.03508876 0.03251236 1.0792 0.280928
iis116 1.11265165 0.10043663 11.0781 < 2.2e-16 ***
iis247 -0.41938569 0.10037702 -4.1781 3.393e-05 ***
iis248 0.40753060 0.10043219 4.0578 5.634e-05 ***
iis558 0.38676660 0.10064040 3.8431 0.000135 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 33.518 1 7.060e-09 ***
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 40.480 1 1.986e-10 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.09617
R-squared 0.38389
Log-lik.(n=639) 619.61417 AR = 1
p = 0.01
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1
Date: Wed Nov 30 13:20:49 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 619
Sample: 1 to 619
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 -2.4582e-01 3.5287e-02 -6.9663 9.483e-12 ***
d.lgdp_wb -2.4432e+01 3.2099e+01 -0.7611 0.4469036
d.lpop 2.5197e+00 1.2568e+01 0.2005 0.8411724
d.lgdp_wb_sq 4.2633e-01 5.7152e-01 0.7460 0.4560159
g.cdd -1.2599e-02 1.8451e-02 -0.6828 0.4950098
g.hdd 5.4486e-03 1.9547e-01 0.0279 0.9777723
idAustria -1.4132e-02 2.0631e-02 -0.6850 0.4936371
idBelgium -3.1309e-02 2.0648e-02 -1.5163 0.1300261
idCanada -2.1748e-02 2.0644e-02 -1.0535 0.2925876
idDenmark -9.8776e-02 2.1279e-02 -4.6419 4.337e-06 ***
idFinland 4.3999e-02 2.7177e-02 1.6190 0.1060312
idFrance 1.1946e-01 8.5184e-02 1.4023 0.1613908
idGermany -3.2897e-02 2.0661e-02 -1.5922 0.1119198
idGreece -3.2904e-02 2.0653e-02 -1.5931 0.1117111
idIreland -1.6697e-02 2.0639e-02 -0.8090 0.4188695
idItaly -2.2693e-02 2.0642e-02 -1.0994 0.2721027
idJapan -5.3645e-04 2.0630e-02 -0.0260 0.9792640
idNetherlands -8.5921e-03 2.0634e-02 -0.4164 0.6772840
idNewZealand 1.5174e-01 6.0858e-02 2.4934 0.0129520 *
idPortugal 6.0391e-03 2.1907e-02 0.2757 0.7829047
idSpain -2.4426e-02 2.0646e-02 -1.1831 0.2373040
idSweden 8.9175e-03 4.0007e-02 0.2229 0.8236994
idSwitzerland -2.7058e-03 2.0812e-02 -0.1300 0.8966059
idUnitedKingdom -5.5922e-02 2.0696e-02 -2.7020 0.0071082 **
idUnitedStates -1.7188e-02 2.0910e-02 -0.8220 0.4114421
time1991 1.8655e-03 1.5702e-01 0.0119 0.9905249
time1992 5.0708e-03 1.5242e-01 0.0333 0.9734728
time1993 1.1432e-02 1.4854e-01 0.0770 0.9386783
time1994 7.2153e-02 1.5068e-01 0.4789 0.6322335
time1995 6.1787e-02 1.3800e-01 0.4477 0.6545138
time1996 3.8442e-02 1.3624e-01 0.2822 0.7779245
time1997 3.7300e-02 1.3709e-01 0.2721 0.7856692
time1998 8.8011e-02 1.2022e-01 0.7321 0.4644174
time1999 4.6721e-02 1.1688e-01 0.3997 0.6895134
time2000 3.6440e-02 1.2942e-01 0.2816 0.7783833
time2001 4.9322e-02 1.4043e-01 0.3512 0.7255501
time2002 5.3926e-02 1.4255e-01 0.3783 0.7053512
time2003 5.4548e-02 1.1875e-01 0.4594 0.6461580
time2004 1.1783e-02 1.2383e-01 0.0952 0.9242241
time2005 5.5509e-02 1.2683e-01 0.4377 0.6618049
time2006 -1.2428e-02 1.3241e-01 -0.0939 0.9252534
time2007 -4.7266e-03 1.2679e-01 -0.0373 0.9702757
time2008 -5.0137e-02 1.3802e-01 -0.3633 0.7165491
time2009 -1.0228e-01 1.4537e-01 -0.7035 0.4820169
time2010 3.3466e-02 1.4591e-01 0.2294 0.8186763
time2011 -3.0504e-02 1.2910e-01 -0.2363 0.8133048
time2012 -1.0937e-02 1.3967e-01 -0.0783 0.9376142
time2013 -5.0579e-02 1.3705e-01 -0.3691 0.7122347
time2014 -8.5058e-02 1.3116e-01 -0.6485 0.5169373
time2015 -1.0790e-02 9.9479e-02 -0.1085 0.9136665
time2016 -1.7911e-02 1.4252e-01 -0.1257 0.9000383
time2017 -1.3708e-03 1.5407e-01 -0.0089 0.9929048
time2018 -4.9902e-02 1.7958e-01 -0.2779 0.7812054
time2019 -1.0536e-01 1.7056e-01 -0.6177 0.5370330
time2020 -1.7458e-01 1.8082e-01 -0.9655 0.3347325
time2021 -9.6151e-03 1.7154e-01 -0.0561 0.9553211
iis125 3.6881e-01 8.5374e-02 4.3200 1.857e-05 ***
iis130 3.5175e-01 8.5157e-02 4.1305 4.192e-05 ***
iis140 3.7251e-01 8.5094e-02 4.3776 1.441e-05 ***
iis163 -3.4578e-01 8.6799e-02 -3.9837 7.715e-05 ***
iis170 -4.1559e-01 8.6151e-02 -4.8240 1.832e-06 ***
iis171 3.5734e-01 8.7523e-02 4.0828 5.122e-05 ***
iis194 2.5417e-01 8.5202e-02 2.9831 0.0029823 **
iis410 4.2991e-01 8.5258e-02 5.0425 6.280e-07 ***
iis440 -2.6343e-01 8.5363e-02 -3.0860 0.0021328 **
iis443 2.3421e-01 8.5147e-02 2.7506 0.0061476 **
iis454 -3.0278e-01 8.5280e-02 -3.5504 0.0004182 ***
iis502 4.7650e-01 9.3472e-02 5.0978 4.758e-07 ***
iis516 2.7593e-01 8.5638e-02 3.2221 0.0013492 **
iis528 4.1087e-01 9.3939e-02 4.3738 1.465e-05 ***
fesisFinland.2005 -9.9863e-02 3.1707e-02 -3.1496 0.0017255 **
fesisFrance.1992 -3.5294e-01 9.6630e-02 -3.6525 0.0002849 ***
fesisFrance.1995 2.1722e-01 5.1140e-02 4.2476 2.544e-05 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.4113e-01 7.6300e-02 -4.4709 9.493e-06 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 1.8946e-01 5.1069e-02 3.7098 0.0002289 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -2.5954e-01 5.1257e-02 -5.0634 5.657e-07 ***
fesisSweden.1996 -1.8057e-01 5.6066e-02 -3.2206 0.0013561 **
fesisSweden.2001 1.5298e-01 4.5722e-02 3.3458 0.0008774 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 0.45493 1 0.500001
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 12.50420 1 0.000406 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.08122
R-squared 0.49967
Log-lik.(n=619) 714.74434 p = 0.001
Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd
NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1
Date: Wed Nov 30 13:20:54 2022
Dependent var.: y
Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
No. of observations (mean eq.): 619
Sample: 1 to 619
SPECIFIC mean equation:
coef std.error t-stat p-value
ar1 -1.7879e-01 3.5433e-02 -5.0459 6.127e-07 ***
d.lgdp_wb -2.7062e+01 3.6065e+01 -0.7504 0.4533468
d.lpop 2.1937e+00 1.4121e+01 0.1553 0.8766021
d.lgdp_wb_sq 4.7148e-01 6.4214e-01 0.7342 0.4631222
g.cdd -1.2622e-02 2.0736e-02 -0.6087 0.5429891
g.hdd 3.4614e-03 2.1955e-01 0.0158 0.9874271
idAustria -1.3654e-02 2.3188e-02 -0.5888 0.5562128
idBelgium -2.9640e-02 2.3204e-02 -1.2774 0.2020015
idCanada -2.0298e-02 2.3200e-02 -0.8749 0.3819831
idDenmark 5.8969e-02 4.1479e-02 1.4217 0.1556887
idFinland -1.9520e-02 2.3605e-02 -0.8270 0.4086139
idFrance -2.2945e-02 2.3206e-02 -0.9887 0.3232198
idGermany -3.0732e-02 2.3215e-02 -1.3238 0.1861138
idGreece -3.1017e-02 2.3208e-02 -1.3365 0.1819462
idIreland -1.5500e-02 2.3196e-02 -0.6682 0.5042778
idItaly -2.1320e-02 2.3198e-02 -0.9190 0.3584750
idJapan -5.6153e-04 2.3187e-02 -0.0242 0.9806879
idNetherlands -7.7504e-03 2.3191e-02 -0.3342 0.7383585
idNewZealand 1.3521e-01 6.8198e-02 1.9827 0.0478959 *
idPortugal -5.6151e-03 2.3833e-02 -0.2356 0.8138304
idSpain -2.2840e-02 2.3202e-02 -0.9844 0.3253540
idSweden -1.3717e-02 2.3192e-02 -0.5915 0.5544588
idSwitzerland 8.1206e-03 2.3223e-02 0.3497 0.7267075
idUnitedKingdom -5.2769e-02 2.3247e-02 -2.2699 0.0235937 *
idUnitedStates -1.4685e-02 2.3497e-02 -0.6250 0.5322466
time1991 4.1492e-02 1.7613e-01 0.2356 0.8138459
time1992 -8.3881e-03 1.7123e-01 -0.0490 0.9609475
time1993 3.1036e-03 1.6688e-01 0.0186 0.9851689
time1994 6.9054e-02 1.6929e-01 0.4079 0.6835023
time1995 6.2129e-02 1.5506e-01 0.4007 0.6888149
time1996 4.3151e-02 1.5291e-01 0.2822 0.7779010
time1997 4.4410e-02 1.5400e-01 0.2884 0.7731636
time1998 8.5842e-02 1.3479e-01 0.6368 0.5244877
time1999 6.0579e-02 1.3122e-01 0.4616 0.6445186
time2000 4.0880e-02 1.4539e-01 0.2812 0.7786822
time2001 5.8088e-02 1.5779e-01 0.3681 0.7129182
time2002 6.1598e-02 1.6017e-01 0.3846 0.7007044
time2003 6.0727e-02 1.3343e-01 0.4551 0.6492025
time2004 1.8384e-02 1.3915e-01 0.1321 0.8949359
time2005 6.2181e-02 1.4252e-01 0.4363 0.6627847
time2006 -8.9388e-03 1.4879e-01 -0.0601 0.9521179
time2007 -1.8998e-03 1.4247e-01 -0.0133 0.9893655
time2008 -4.6262e-02 1.5509e-01 -0.2983 0.7655938
time2009 -1.0048e-01 1.6334e-01 -0.6151 0.5387143
time2010 4.1050e-02 1.6384e-01 0.2506 0.8022525
time2011 -2.7762e-02 1.4507e-01 -0.1914 0.8483092
time2012 -4.1755e-03 1.5694e-01 -0.0266 0.9787838
time2013 -4.6143e-02 1.5400e-01 -0.2996 0.7645687
time2014 -7.7400e-02 1.4737e-01 -0.5252 0.5996514
time2015 -4.2015e-03 1.1178e-01 -0.0376 0.9700292
time2016 -1.5164e-02 1.6016e-01 -0.0947 0.9246046
time2017 4.7160e-03 1.7313e-01 0.0272 0.9782781
time2018 -4.5057e-02 2.0179e-01 -0.2233 0.8233945
time2019 -1.0006e-01 1.9164e-01 -0.5221 0.6017918
time2020 -1.6918e-01 2.0317e-01 -0.8327 0.4053739
time2021 -2.8586e-03 1.9272e-01 -0.0148 0.9881710
iis140 3.8987e-01 9.5848e-02 4.0675 5.440e-05 ***
iis170 -4.4483e-01 9.5375e-02 -4.6640 3.891e-06 ***
iis171 3.5058e-01 9.6730e-02 3.6242 0.0003164 ***
fesisDenmark.1997 -1.6291e-01 4.2889e-02 -3.7984 0.0001617 ***
fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.0982e-01 8.5570e-02 -3.6206 0.0003208 ***
fesisNewZealand.1996 4.6717e-01 8.5570e-02 5.4595 7.211e-08 ***
fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9981e-01 6.8953e-02 -4.3481 1.634e-05 ***
fesisPortugal.2019 -2.3443e-01 5.7242e-02 -4.0954 4.842e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostics and fit:
Chi-sq df p-value
Ljung-Box AR(1) 6.7172 1 0.009549 **
Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.2808 1 9.265e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
SE of regression 0.09129
R-squared 0.35157
Log-lik.(n=619) 635.40302