Overview:

All models below were executed with impulse indicator saturation (IIS) enabled and a block size of 20. In order to avoid endless output, where reasonable, we present only the model specifications with GDP, population, weather controls, all three ETS phase dummies (2005, 2008, 2013) and ETS price, a p-value threshold of 0.01, and spanning 1990-2021.

Country sample: EU-15 (excluding Luxembourg), United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Switzerland

Emissions: Levels

w. ETS price

AR = 0

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Dec  5 20:07:09 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  3.5033e-01  7.0175e-01   0.4992 0.6178237          
                lpop                    -4.2696e-01  2.3726e-01  -1.7995 0.0724822 .        
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.9617e-03  1.3801e-02  -0.1421 0.8870196          
                hdd                      2.0172e-04  2.6888e-05   7.5023 2.517e-13 ***      
                cdd                      3.2009e-04  7.6438e-05   4.1876 3.280e-05 ***      
                EU_ETS_05               -8.2756e-02  4.8718e-02  -1.6987 0.0899413 .        
                EU_ETS_08               -1.9898e-01  9.5520e-02  -2.0832 0.0376956 *        
                EU_ETS_13                6.1017e-02  8.3801e-02   0.7281 0.4668493          
                EU_ETS_05:ets_price     -1.3391e-03  2.8507e-03  -0.4697 0.6387286          
                EU_ETS_08:ets_price      7.8598e-03  6.7708e-03   1.1608 0.2462055          
                EU_ETS_13:ets_price     -1.0512e-02  6.2329e-03  -1.6865 0.0922606 .        
                idAustria               -2.7991e+00  1.6730e-01 -16.7304 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -1.9446e+00  1.1842e-01 -16.4208 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -6.6822e-01  1.3698e-01  -4.8782 1.402e-06 ***      
                idDenmark               -2.0097e+00  2.4305e-01  -8.2687 1.013e-15 ***      
                idFinland               -2.5865e+00  2.5368e-01 -10.1959 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -1.0865e+00  2.3434e-01  -4.6367 4.423e-06 ***      
                idGermany                8.8589e-01  2.8509e-01   3.1074 0.0019845 **       
                idGreece                -1.3908e+00  8.8390e-02 -15.7350 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -2.7983e+00  2.7952e-01 -10.0109 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  3.0947e-02  2.2314e-01   0.1387 0.8897479          
                idJapan                  1.2084e+00  3.5788e-01   3.3765 0.0007858 ***      
                idNetherlands           -1.2733e+00  8.0256e-02 -15.8657 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -3.6836e+00  2.8249e-01 -13.0397 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.8917e+00  9.3326e-02 -20.2703 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -4.7540e-01  1.8387e-01  -2.5855 0.0099779 **       
                idSweden                -3.2643e+00  1.6111e-01 -20.2612 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -4.7517e+00  2.1695e-01 -21.9022 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          4.7415e-01  2.3079e-01   2.0544 0.0404021 *        
                idUnitedStates           2.8980e+00  4.8759e-01   5.9435 4.943e-09 ***      
                time1990                 1.0536e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0344 0.3014219          
                time1991                 1.0551e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0358 0.3007475          
                time1992                 1.0582e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0389 0.2993097          
                time1993                 1.0523e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0331 0.3020276          
                time1994                 1.0553e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0360 0.3006455          
                time1995                 1.0575e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0382 0.2996463          
                time1996                 1.0583e+01  1.0185e+01   1.0391 0.2992224          
                time1997                 1.0609e+01  1.0183e+01   1.0418 0.2979724          
                time1998                 1.0641e+01  1.0182e+01   1.0451 0.2964396          
                time1999                 1.0650e+01  1.0181e+01   1.0460 0.2960010          
                time2000                 1.0661e+01  1.0179e+01   1.0473 0.2954038          
                time2001                 1.0668e+01  1.0179e+01   1.0481 0.2950356          
                time2002                 1.0717e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0530 0.2928174          
                time2003                 1.0708e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0521 0.2932279          
                time2004                 1.0719e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0533 0.2926797          
                time2005                 1.0801e+01  1.0179e+01   1.0611 0.2891125          
                time2006                 1.0810e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0622 0.2886277          
                time2007                 1.0808e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0620 0.2886924          
                time2008                 1.0804e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0616 0.2888618          
                time2009                 1.0762e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0573 0.2908349          
                time2010                 1.0717e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0530 0.2927967          
                time2011                 1.0778e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0590 0.2900394          
                time2012                 1.0738e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0551 0.2918609          
                time2013                 1.0687e+01  1.0176e+01   1.0501 0.2941172          
                time2014                 1.0661e+01  1.0176e+01   1.0476 0.2952758          
                time2015                 1.0628e+01  1.0175e+01   1.0445 0.2967150          
                time2016                 1.0600e+01  1.0175e+01   1.0417 0.2979935          
                time2017                 1.0613e+01  1.0174e+01   1.0432 0.2973346          
                time2018                 1.0533e+01  1.0173e+01   1.0354 0.3009537          
                time2019                 1.0491e+01  1.0173e+01   1.0312 0.3028786          
                time2020                 1.0439e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0258 0.3054566          
                time2021                 1.0511e+01  1.0174e+01   1.0331 0.3020008          
                iis202                  -2.7240e-01  9.7134e-02  -2.8044 0.0052180 **       
                iis590                  -4.2087e-01  9.7352e-02  -4.3232 1.824e-05 ***      
                iis591                  -4.5225e-01  9.7277e-02  -4.6491 4.174e-06 ***      
                iis592                  -3.2237e-01  9.8087e-02  -3.2865 0.0010787 **       
                fesisCanada.2005        -1.7280e-01  3.8816e-02  -4.4518 1.031e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2005  -1.8291e-01  4.9683e-02  -3.6815 0.0002546 ***      
                fesisAustria.2008        9.4961e-02  3.6722e-02   2.5859 0.0099664 **       
                fesisAustria.2018        2.3333e-01  5.4792e-02   4.2585 2.418e-05 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2001       -2.0553e-01  3.4637e-02  -5.9338 5.224e-09 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2018    2.7474e-01  5.3627e-02   5.1231 4.159e-07 ***      
                fesisGermany.2012        1.0894e-01  4.1379e-02   2.6329 0.0087038 **       
                fesisDenmark.1999       -3.6458e-01  4.0774e-02  -8.9415 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2011       -3.6052e-01  4.3748e-02  -8.2408 1.247e-15 ***      
                fesisSpain.1999          1.6962e-01  3.8862e-02   4.3648 1.519e-05 ***      
                fesisFrance.2005         1.7933e-01  3.5125e-02   5.1054 4.547e-07 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.0796e-01  4.8284e-02  -4.3071 1.958e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.3120e-01  4.4787e-02  -9.6278 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.1995    1.2740e-01  4.6171e-02   2.7594 0.0059833 **       
                fesisNetherlands.2014    3.0050e-01  3.9408e-02   7.6253 1.068e-13 ***      
                fesisSweden.2016         2.1876e-01  4.3013e-02   5.0860 5.016e-07 ***      
                fesisJapan.2012          2.7668e-01  4.6651e-02   5.9309 5.313e-09 ***      
                fesisAustralia.1999      1.5738e-01  4.2462e-02   3.7064 0.0002313 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1997     4.5795e-01  5.5082e-02   8.3141 7.210e-16 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.2002     1.5045e-01  5.5415e-02   2.7149 0.0068372 **       
                fesisNewZealand.2009    -3.0121e-01  4.7277e-02  -6.3711 3.954e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   61.772  1 3.886e-15 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 30.803  1 2.857e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08838      
                R-squared          0.99734      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  688.08592      

AR = 1

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Dec  5 20:07:04 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.5175e-01  2.2181e-02  33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  5.6781e-01  3.8509e-01   1.4745 0.1409309          
                lpop                    -1.6130e+00  1.3830e+00  -1.1663 0.2439960          
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.9816e-02  1.7928e-02   1.1053 0.2695106          
                hdd                     -1.1705e-04  9.7752e-05  -1.1974 0.2316729          
                cdd                     -5.5597e-04  1.3877e-04  -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -6.3176e-01  5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.4086e-01  5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -1.3804e-01  2.2335e-02  -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -6.2118e-01  5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.8652e-01  5.1442e-02  -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -3.6841e-01  3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.3147e-01  2.4002e-02   5.4772 6.607e-08 ***      
                idGreece                -4.1069e-01  3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -6.6552e-01  6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.0204e-01  2.0919e-02  -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***      
                idJapan                  1.9067e-01  2.8861e-02   6.6066 9.369e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands           -2.9494e-01  3.2397e-02  -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.9872e-01  1.0146e-01  -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***      
                idPortugal              -5.4502e-01  5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -2.0901e-01  2.6474e-02  -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***      
                idSweden                -7.5812e-01  6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.0421e+00  9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.5943e-02  2.0967e-02  -1.2373 0.2165155          
                idUnitedStates           6.0911e-01  5.8970e-02  10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                 6.8053e-01  5.0467e-01   1.3485 0.1780665          
                time1992                 6.1693e-01  5.2970e-01   1.1647 0.2446586          
                time1993                 5.9818e-01  5.0715e-01   1.1795 0.2387159          
                time1994                 5.9524e-01  4.5720e-01   1.3019 0.1934943          
                time1995                 6.0853e-01  4.2992e-01   1.4154 0.1575129          
                time1996                 5.9198e-01  4.4349e-01   1.3348 0.1824910          
                time1997                 4.9259e-01  3.8624e-01   1.2754 0.2027228          
                time1998                 4.4824e-01  3.1015e-01   1.4452 0.1489657          
                time1999                 3.8630e-01  2.6544e-01   1.4553 0.1461543          
                time2000                 2.9566e-01  2.3170e-01   1.2761 0.2024795          
                time2001                 3.2250e-01  2.0532e-01   1.5707 0.1168332          
                time2002                 3.3966e-01  1.8858e-01   1.8012 0.0722278 .        
                time2003                 3.2625e-01  1.8875e-01   1.7285 0.0844677 .        
                time2004                 2.2085e-01  1.5696e-01   1.4070 0.1599946          
                time2005                 2.7055e-01  1.0765e-01   2.5132 0.0122524 *        
                time2006                 1.4223e-01  8.4842e-02   1.6764 0.0942343 .        
                time2007                 1.7231e-01  8.2804e-02   2.0810 0.0379048 *        
                time2008                 1.2249e-01  9.1859e-02   1.3334 0.1829439          
                time2009                 1.4885e-01  1.5000e-01   0.9923 0.3214714          
                time2010                 2.0502e-01  9.9568e-02   2.0591 0.0399593 *        
                time2011                 9.7624e-02  8.0935e-02   1.2062 0.2282598          
                time2012                 1.1967e-01  6.1272e-02   1.9531 0.0513195 .        
                time2013                 4.1818e-02  6.3674e-02   0.6567 0.5116212          
                time2014                -2.5925e-02  5.5002e-02  -0.4713 0.6375812          
                time2015                 5.0250e-02  3.6422e-02   1.3797 0.1682551          
                time2016                 3.1824e-02  3.3353e-02   0.9541 0.3404339          
                iis125                   4.0274e-01  8.0939e-02   4.9758 8.725e-07 ***      
                iis127                   2.6002e-01  8.1090e-02   3.2065 0.0014222 **       
                iis128                   2.8400e-01  8.1358e-02   3.4907 0.0005208 ***      
                iis130                   4.7920e-01  8.1655e-02   5.8687 7.633e-09 ***      
                iis137                   2.3442e-01  8.0628e-02   2.9074 0.0037932 **       
                iis140                   3.6872e-01  8.0775e-02   4.5648 6.184e-06 ***      
                iis149                  -2.6431e-01  8.0931e-02  -3.2659 0.0011596 **       
                iis151                  -2.8779e-01  8.1168e-02  -3.5456 0.0004254 ***      
                iis153                  -3.7375e-01  8.1759e-02  -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***      
                iis170                  -3.2264e-01  8.1644e-02  -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***      
                iis171                   4.2612e-01  8.1615e-02   5.2211 2.534e-07 ***      
                iis194                   2.6611e-01  8.0299e-02   3.3140 0.0009809 ***      
                iis410                   2.6767e-01  8.1176e-02   3.2974 0.0010396 **       
                iis440                  -2.8560e-01  8.0757e-02  -3.5365 0.0004400 ***      
                iis454                  -3.3121e-01  8.0460e-02  -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***      
                iis471                  -2.3466e-01  8.0512e-02  -2.9145 0.0037085 **       
                iis502                   3.7161e-01  8.0578e-02   4.6118 4.979e-06 ***      
                iis516                   2.4231e-01  8.0320e-02   3.0168 0.0026737 **       
                fesisFinland.2005       -7.8354e-02  2.9382e-02  -2.6667 0.0078870 **       
                fesisJapan.2010          1.2814e-01  3.0521e-02   4.1983 3.140e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993    -2.7673e-01  7.2047e-02  -3.8410 0.0001370 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996     2.6099e-01  4.9010e-02   5.3251 1.477e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019      -2.3353e-01  4.8134e-02  -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01  3.5525e-02  -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    2.2203  1 0.136204         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243  1 0.001178 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.07682      
                R-squared          0.99796      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  748.82217      

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:34:22 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  3.8316e-01  5.2252e-01   0.7333 0.4636822          
                lpop                     2.5710e-02  2.0058e-01   0.1282 0.8980504          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.9737e-03  1.0103e-02  -0.1954 0.8451842          
                hdd                      1.8635e-04  2.8679e-05   6.4980 1.782e-10 ***      
                cdd                      2.9071e-04  8.1415e-05   3.5707 0.0003862 ***      
                idAustria               -2.3864e+00  1.5702e-01 -15.1982 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -1.6929e+00  1.1453e-01 -14.7813 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -9.4728e-01  1.2851e-01  -7.3713 6.000e-13 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.4402e+00  2.1883e-01  -6.5816 1.059e-10 ***      
                idFinland               -2.0095e+00  2.3713e-01  -8.4743 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -1.6448e+00  1.9577e-01  -8.4016 3.543e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.4730e-01  2.3215e-01   0.6345 0.5260232          
                idGreece                -1.1625e+00  9.5293e-02 -12.1987 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -2.0252e+00  2.5858e-01  -7.8319 2.372e-14 ***      
                idItaly                 -5.7817e-01  1.8147e-01  -3.1860 0.0015219 **       
                idJapan                  2.7138e-01  2.9279e-01   0.9269 0.3543760          
                idNetherlands           -1.1563e+00  7.5140e-02 -15.3890 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -2.9421e+00  2.5504e-01 -11.5357 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.6605e+00  9.9377e-02 -16.7086 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -8.1602e-01  1.5359e-01  -5.3129 1.552e-07 ***      
                idSweden                -2.9349e+00  1.5369e-01 -19.0959 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -4.3318e+00  1.9705e-01 -21.9826 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -1.2165e-01  1.9684e-01  -0.6180 0.5368090          
                idUnitedStates           1.5255e+00  3.9093e-01   3.9021 0.0001068 ***      
                time1990                 2.1694e+00  8.1484e+00   0.2662 0.7901524          
                time1991                 2.1838e+00  8.1486e+00   0.2680 0.7887960          
                time1992                 2.2095e+00  8.1487e+00   0.2712 0.7863733          
                time1993                 2.1487e+00  8.1490e+00   0.2637 0.7921204          
                time1994                 2.1748e+00  8.1497e+00   0.2668 0.7896820          
                time1995                 2.2014e+00  8.1496e+00   0.2701 0.7871600          
                time1996                 2.2090e+00  8.1486e+00   0.2711 0.7864221          
                time1997                 2.2281e+00  8.1479e+00   0.2735 0.7845981          
                time1998                 2.2573e+00  8.1477e+00   0.2770 0.7818488          
                time1999                 2.2759e+00  8.1471e+00   0.2794 0.7800766          
                time2000                 2.2820e+00  8.1463e+00   0.2801 0.7794792          
                time2001                 2.2923e+00  8.1462e+00   0.2814 0.7785109          
                time2002                 2.3427e+00  8.1465e+00   0.2876 0.7737849          
                time2003                 2.3337e+00  8.1472e+00   0.2864 0.7746467          
                time2004                 2.3568e+00  8.1453e+00   0.2893 0.7724218          
                time2005                 2.3489e+00  8.1455e+00   0.2884 0.7731728          
                time2006                 2.3518e+00  8.1453e+00   0.2887 0.7728920          
                time2007                 2.3578e+00  8.1448e+00   0.2895 0.7723198          
                time2008                 2.2859e+00  8.1450e+00   0.2807 0.7790799          
                time2009                 2.2088e+00  8.1472e+00   0.2711 0.7864052          
                time2010                 2.1712e+00  8.1467e+00   0.2665 0.7899465          
                time2011                 2.1751e+00  8.1475e+00   0.2670 0.7895961          
                time2012                 2.1486e+00  8.1478e+00   0.2637 0.7921085          
                time2013                 2.0917e+00  8.1478e+00   0.2567 0.7974853          
                time2014                 2.0557e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2523 0.8009054          
                time2015                 2.0169e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2475 0.8045914          
                time2016                 2.0072e+00  8.1483e+00   0.2463 0.8055092          
                time2017                 2.0020e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2457 0.8060029          
                time2018                 1.9131e+00  8.1482e+00   0.2348 0.8144584          
                time2019                 1.8407e+00  8.1480e+00   0.2259 0.8213575          
                time2020                 1.7854e+00  8.1511e+00   0.2190 0.8267030          
                time2021                 1.7780e+00  8.1488e+00   0.2182 0.8273578          
                iis590                  -4.0171e-01  1.0596e-01  -3.7910 0.0001661 ***      
                iis591                  -4.3188e-01  1.0593e-01  -4.0772 5.210e-05 ***      
                iis592                  -3.3574e-01  1.0594e-01  -3.1692 0.0016110 **       
                fesisBelgium.2001       -2.7149e-01  3.7420e-02  -7.2553 1.322e-12 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2006    1.0711e-01  3.8828e-02   2.7586 0.0059920 **       
                fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.4196e-01  5.7791e-02   5.9173 5.662e-09 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1999       -3.2142e-01  5.5455e-02  -5.7961 1.126e-08 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2004       -1.5421e-01  5.6578e-02  -2.7256 0.0066162 **       
                fesisDenmark.2012       -3.8209e-01  5.1375e-02  -7.4373 3.812e-13 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.4894e-01  5.0376e-02  -4.9415 1.021e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1137e-01  4.6523e-02 -10.9919 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisIreland.2004       -2.1441e-01  4.6932e-02  -4.5685 6.028e-06 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2014    2.5604e-01  4.0789e-02   6.2771 6.853e-10 ***      
                fesisJapan.2011          4.7526e-01  3.9446e-02  12.0482 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2008      2.2597e-01  4.0164e-02   5.6262 2.896e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1997     4.5726e-01  4.9717e-02   9.1974 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   114.542  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  42.801  1  6.06e-11 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09648      
                R-squared          0.99675      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  624.46953      

AR = 1

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:35:03 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.5175e-01  2.2181e-02  33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  5.6781e-01  3.8509e-01   1.4745 0.1409309          
                lpop                    -1.6130e+00  1.3830e+00  -1.1663 0.2439960          
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.9816e-02  1.7928e-02   1.1053 0.2695106          
                hdd                     -1.1705e-04  9.7752e-05  -1.1974 0.2316729          
                cdd                     -5.5597e-04  1.3877e-04  -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -6.3176e-01  5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.4086e-01  5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -1.3804e-01  2.2335e-02  -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -6.2118e-01  5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.8652e-01  5.1442e-02  -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -3.6841e-01  3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.3147e-01  2.4002e-02   5.4772 6.607e-08 ***      
                idGreece                -4.1069e-01  3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -6.6552e-01  6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.0204e-01  2.0919e-02  -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***      
                idJapan                  1.9067e-01  2.8861e-02   6.6066 9.369e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands           -2.9494e-01  3.2397e-02  -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.9872e-01  1.0146e-01  -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***      
                idPortugal              -5.4502e-01  5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -2.0901e-01  2.6474e-02  -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***      
                idSweden                -7.5812e-01  6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.0421e+00  9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.5943e-02  2.0967e-02  -1.2373 0.2165155          
                idUnitedStates           6.0911e-01  5.8970e-02  10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                 6.8053e-01  5.0467e-01   1.3485 0.1780665          
                time1992                 6.1693e-01  5.2970e-01   1.1647 0.2446586          
                time1993                 5.9818e-01  5.0715e-01   1.1795 0.2387159          
                time1994                 5.9524e-01  4.5720e-01   1.3019 0.1934943          
                time1995                 6.0853e-01  4.2992e-01   1.4154 0.1575129          
                time1996                 5.9198e-01  4.4349e-01   1.3348 0.1824910          
                time1997                 4.9259e-01  3.8624e-01   1.2754 0.2027228          
                time1998                 4.4824e-01  3.1015e-01   1.4452 0.1489657          
                time1999                 3.8630e-01  2.6544e-01   1.4553 0.1461543          
                time2000                 2.9566e-01  2.3170e-01   1.2761 0.2024795          
                time2001                 3.2250e-01  2.0532e-01   1.5707 0.1168332          
                time2002                 3.3966e-01  1.8858e-01   1.8012 0.0722278 .        
                time2003                 3.2625e-01  1.8875e-01   1.7285 0.0844677 .        
                time2004                 2.2085e-01  1.5696e-01   1.4070 0.1599946          
                time2005                 2.7055e-01  1.0765e-01   2.5132 0.0122524 *        
                time2006                 1.4223e-01  8.4842e-02   1.6764 0.0942343 .        
                time2007                 1.7231e-01  8.2804e-02   2.0810 0.0379048 *        
                time2008                 1.2249e-01  9.1859e-02   1.3334 0.1829439          
                time2009                 1.4885e-01  1.5000e-01   0.9923 0.3214714          
                time2010                 2.0502e-01  9.9568e-02   2.0591 0.0399593 *        
                time2011                 9.7624e-02  8.0935e-02   1.2062 0.2282598          
                time2012                 1.1967e-01  6.1272e-02   1.9531 0.0513195 .        
                time2013                 4.1818e-02  6.3674e-02   0.6567 0.5116212          
                time2014                -2.5925e-02  5.5002e-02  -0.4713 0.6375812          
                time2015                 5.0250e-02  3.6422e-02   1.3797 0.1682551          
                time2016                 3.1824e-02  3.3353e-02   0.9541 0.3404339          
                iis125                   4.0274e-01  8.0939e-02   4.9758 8.725e-07 ***      
                iis127                   2.6002e-01  8.1090e-02   3.2065 0.0014222 **       
                iis128                   2.8400e-01  8.1358e-02   3.4907 0.0005208 ***      
                iis130                   4.7920e-01  8.1655e-02   5.8687 7.633e-09 ***      
                iis137                   2.3442e-01  8.0628e-02   2.9074 0.0037932 **       
                iis140                   3.6872e-01  8.0775e-02   4.5648 6.184e-06 ***      
                iis149                  -2.6431e-01  8.0931e-02  -3.2659 0.0011596 **       
                iis151                  -2.8779e-01  8.1168e-02  -3.5456 0.0004254 ***      
                iis153                  -3.7375e-01  8.1759e-02  -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***      
                iis170                  -3.2264e-01  8.1644e-02  -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***      
                iis171                   4.2612e-01  8.1615e-02   5.2211 2.534e-07 ***      
                iis194                   2.6611e-01  8.0299e-02   3.3140 0.0009809 ***      
                iis410                   2.6767e-01  8.1176e-02   3.2974 0.0010396 **       
                iis440                  -2.8560e-01  8.0757e-02  -3.5365 0.0004400 ***      
                iis454                  -3.3121e-01  8.0460e-02  -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***      
                iis471                  -2.3466e-01  8.0512e-02  -2.9145 0.0037085 **       
                iis502                   3.7161e-01  8.0578e-02   4.6118 4.979e-06 ***      
                iis516                   2.4231e-01  8.0320e-02   3.0168 0.0026737 **       
                fesisFinland.2005       -7.8354e-02  2.9382e-02  -2.6667 0.0078870 **       
                fesisJapan.2010          1.2814e-01  3.0521e-02   4.1983 3.140e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993    -2.7673e-01  7.2047e-02  -3.8410 0.0001370 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996     2.6099e-01  4.9010e-02   5.3251 1.477e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019      -2.3353e-01  4.8134e-02  -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01  3.5525e-02  -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    2.2203  1 0.136204         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243  1 0.001178 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.07682      
                R-squared          0.99796      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  748.82217      

Model Overview

Note: Countries in which no break was detected are excluded from these overview plots.

by country

w.o ETS

w. ETS

by model

w.o ETS

w. ETS

by outcome variable

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

France

Germany

Ireland

Japan

Netherlands

NewZealand

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Demand Channel: Generation, Demand, Imports, Exports

Elec Demand Twh

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:51:22 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  1.1109e+00  1.5623e-01   7.1104 3.599e-12 ***      
                lpop                     1.3613e-01  5.6546e-02   2.4074 0.0163938 *        
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.5977e-02  2.9881e-03  -5.3471 1.311e-07 ***      
                hdd                      6.0546e-05  8.3096e-06   7.2863 1.107e-12 ***      
                cdd                      1.0597e-04  2.3551e-05   4.4998 8.299e-06 ***      
                idAustria               -9.2906e-01  4.4355e-02 -20.9460 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -6.2539e-01  3.2106e-02 -19.4786 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 7.7315e-01  3.6589e-02  21.1306 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.2113e+00  6.0792e-02 -19.9245 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -5.2533e-01  6.6149e-02  -7.9416 1.125e-14 ***      
                idFrance                 4.6299e-01  5.5109e-02   8.4012 3.756e-16 ***      
                idGermany                5.9139e-01  6.8658e-02   8.6135 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                -1.0465e+00  2.7620e-02 -37.8888 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -1.6095e+00  7.1912e-02 -22.3810 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  8.1112e-02  5.1121e-02   1.5867 0.1131593          
                idJapan                  9.8362e-01  8.2256e-02  11.9580 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNetherlands           -5.7380e-01  2.1654e-02 -26.4988 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -8.2527e-01  6.9731e-02 -11.8351 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.1548e+00  2.9983e-02 -38.5136 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -1.0138e-01  4.3851e-02  -2.3120 0.0211463 *        
                idSweden                -1.2096e-01  4.4380e-02  -2.7255 0.0066250 **       
                idSwitzerland           -1.0532e+00  5.4057e-02 -19.4833 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          2.5973e-01  5.4262e-02   4.7867 2.180e-06 ***      
                idUnitedStates           1.9924e+00  1.1459e-01  17.3865 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1990                -1.5680e+01  2.2869e+00  -6.8562 1.899e-11 ***      
                time1991                -1.5671e+01  2.2870e+00  -6.8522 1.949e-11 ***      
                time1992                -1.5656e+01  2.2869e+00  -6.8461 2.026e-11 ***      
                time1993                -1.5650e+01  2.2869e+00  -6.8430 2.068e-11 ***      
                time1994                -1.5632e+01  2.2872e+00  -6.8343 2.186e-11 ***      
                time1995                -1.5609e+01  2.2872e+00  -6.8247 2.326e-11 ***      
                time1996                -1.5594e+01  2.2868e+00  -6.8191 2.411e-11 ***      
                time1997                -1.5581e+01  2.2866e+00  -6.8141 2.489e-11 ***      
                time1998                -1.5562e+01  2.2866e+00  -6.8055 2.630e-11 ***      
                time1999                -1.5547e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.8005 2.716e-11 ***      
                time2000                -1.5508e+01  2.2859e+00  -6.7844 3.011e-11 ***      
                time2001                -1.5522e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7905 2.896e-11 ***      
                time2002                -1.5497e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7796 3.105e-11 ***      
                time2003                -1.5501e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7806 3.085e-11 ***      
                time2004                -1.5480e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7722 3.256e-11 ***      
                time2005                -1.5470e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7679 3.347e-11 ***      
                time2006                -1.5461e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7642 3.426e-11 ***      
                time2007                -1.5449e+01  2.2855e+00  -6.7595 3.530e-11 ***      
                time2008                -1.5449e+01  2.2856e+00  -6.7594 3.531e-11 ***      
                time2009                -1.5490e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7756 3.185e-11 ***      
                time2010                -1.5483e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7727 3.244e-11 ***      
                time2011                -1.5480e+01  2.2860e+00  -6.7718 3.262e-11 ***      
                time2012                -1.5495e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7778 3.140e-11 ***      
                time2013                -1.5504e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7817 3.063e-11 ***      
                time2014                -1.5504e+01  2.2860e+00  -6.7821 3.055e-11 ***      
                time2015                -1.5513e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7858 2.984e-11 ***      
                time2016                -1.5511e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7849 3.001e-11 ***      
                time2017                -1.5512e+01  2.2860e+00  -6.7855 2.990e-11 ***      
                time2018                -1.5518e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7880 2.942e-11 ***      
                time2019                -1.5530e+01  2.2860e+00  -6.7933 2.844e-11 ***      
                time2020                -1.5532e+01  2.2867e+00  -6.7922 2.864e-11 ***      
                time2021                -1.5529e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7925 2.858e-11 ***      
                iis204                  -1.4098e-01  3.1393e-02  -4.4907 8.647e-06 ***      
                iis205                  -1.4489e-01  3.1362e-02  -4.6198 4.784e-06 ***      
                iis206                  -1.1026e-01  3.1205e-02  -3.5335 0.0004445 ***      
                iis207                  -1.2380e-01  3.1227e-02  -3.9646 8.317e-05 ***      
                iis208                  -1.1644e-01  3.1246e-02  -3.7268 0.0002139 ***      
                iis209                  -8.1200e-02  3.1307e-02  -2.5937 0.0097478 **       
                iis210                  -8.7071e-02  3.1316e-02  -2.7804 0.0056153 **       
                iis436                  -1.0632e-01  3.0138e-02  -3.5277 0.0004541 ***      
                iis437                  -8.6092e-02  3.0023e-02  -2.8675 0.0042957 **       
                iis465                   2.0764e-01  2.9468e-02   7.0463 5.500e-12 ***      
                iis466                   1.8277e-01  2.9386e-02   6.2197 9.841e-10 ***      
                iis467                   1.6889e-01  2.9381e-02   5.7484 1.491e-08 ***      
                iis468                   1.5286e-01  2.9354e-02   5.2075 2.706e-07 ***      
                iis469                   1.0183e-01  2.9402e-02   3.4635 0.0005746 ***      
                iis470                   9.5643e-02  2.9352e-02   3.2585 0.0011888 **       
                fesisCanada.2002        -8.7264e-02  1.0793e-02  -8.0854 3.944e-15 ***      
                fesisAustria.2008        4.8115e-02  1.7508e-02   2.7481 0.0061897 **       
                fesisAustria.2011        8.4565e-02  1.8184e-02   4.6505 4.148e-06 ***      
                fesisGermany.1995       -9.0621e-02  1.4064e-02  -6.4436 2.544e-10 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2000       -1.2105e-01  1.5432e-02  -7.8440 2.272e-14 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2005       -5.8258e-02  1.4307e-02  -4.0721 5.342e-05 ***      
                fesisSpain.2001          1.6542e-01  1.5455e-02  10.7032 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -5.5095e-02  1.3536e-02  -4.0702 5.384e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2008 -1.2114e-01  1.2502e-02  -9.6899 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2001         1.5955e-01  1.3106e-02  12.1733 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2010         3.9929e-02  1.3433e-02   2.9726 0.0030821 **       
                fesisIreland.1997        9.9071e-02  1.6391e-02   6.0441 2.766e-09 ***      
                fesisPortugal.1999       1.5474e-01  1.5249e-02  10.1475 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2006       1.2540e-01  1.3004e-02   9.6428 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisSweden.2006        -1.3818e-01  1.1488e-02 -12.0284 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2009      6.6316e-02  1.1516e-02   5.7584 1.411e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1999    -8.4323e-02  1.2968e-02  -6.5023 1.772e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   233.41  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 159.49  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.02714      
                R-squared           0.99962      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  1444.12531      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:51:39 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                         coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                9.2739e-01  9.2133e-03 100.6576 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb            1.9316e-01  7.2198e-02   2.6755 0.0076843 **       
                lpop              -1.0155e+00  2.6207e-01  -3.8749 0.0001195 ***      
                lgdp_wb_sq         1.6028e-02  3.4094e-03   4.7011 3.273e-06 ***      
                hdd                4.4203e-06  1.8289e-05   0.2417 0.8091072          
                cdd               -1.3747e-04  2.6104e-05  -5.2662 2.000e-07 ***      
                idAustria         -1.0278e-01  1.2795e-02  -8.0331 5.800e-15 ***      
                idBelgium         -7.4178e-02  9.3025e-03  -7.9740 8.920e-15 ***      
                idCanada           5.7156e-02  9.6360e-03   5.9315 5.305e-09 ***      
                idDenmark         -1.2313e-01  1.6594e-02  -7.4202 4.456e-13 ***      
                idFinland         -7.5375e-02  1.0124e-02  -7.4451 3.755e-13 ***      
                idFrance           4.8287e-02  8.2430e-03   5.8580 8.064e-09 ***      
                idGermany          5.5335e-02  9.8191e-03   5.6354 2.790e-08 ***      
                idGreece          -9.3163e-02  1.3580e-02  -6.8602 1.854e-11 ***      
                idIreland         -1.4953e-01  2.1369e-02  -6.9973 7.601e-12 ***      
                idItaly            1.8422e-02  5.1369e-03   3.5863 0.0003652 ***      
                idJapan            9.9465e-02  1.4935e-02   6.6600 6.642e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands     -5.4407e-02  7.3964e-03  -7.3560 6.912e-13 ***      
                idNewZealand      -1.2994e-01  1.5923e-02  -8.1605 2.276e-15 ***      
                idPortugal        -1.0877e-01  1.4794e-02  -7.3523 7.089e-13 ***      
                idSpain           -1.2125e-02  6.8274e-03  -1.7759 0.0762969 .        
                idSweden          -4.6842e-02  5.2900e-03  -8.8548 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland     -1.0063e-01  1.2100e-02  -8.3160 7.155e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom    2.1141e-02  6.1830e-03   3.4192 0.0006744 ***      
                idUnitedStates     2.0707e-01  2.7178e-02   7.6192 1.121e-13 ***      
                time1991           4.1221e-01  9.5730e-02   4.3059 1.968e-05 ***      
                time1992           3.8852e-01  1.0036e-01   3.8714 0.0001212 ***      
                time1993           3.8174e-01  9.6097e-02   3.9724 8.059e-05 ***      
                time1994           3.5623e-01  8.6666e-02   4.1104 4.552e-05 ***      
                time1995           3.5375e-01  8.1499e-02   4.3405 1.692e-05 ***      
                time1996           3.3858e-01  8.3977e-02   4.0318 6.315e-05 ***      
                time1997           2.9847e-01  7.3144e-02   4.0805 5.158e-05 ***      
                time1998           2.9064e-01  5.8857e-02   4.9381 1.048e-06 ***      
                time1999           2.4115e-01  5.0327e-02   4.7917 2.129e-06 ***      
                time2000           1.9304e-01  4.3828e-02   4.4045 1.274e-05 ***      
                time2001           1.8456e-01  3.8902e-02   4.7441 2.672e-06 ***      
                time2002           1.6282e-01  3.5672e-02   4.5644 6.181e-06 ***      
                time2003           1.4892e-01  3.5634e-02   4.1791 3.403e-05 ***      
                time2004           1.2409e-01  2.9589e-02   4.1939 3.195e-05 ***      
                time2005           1.1530e-01  2.0345e-02   5.6671 2.343e-08 ***      
                time2006           8.7844e-02  1.6008e-02   5.4876 6.223e-08 ***      
                time2007           7.3537e-02  1.5566e-02   4.7241 2.937e-06 ***      
                time2008           5.9717e-02  1.7248e-02   3.4622 0.0005773 ***      
                time2009           5.9656e-02  2.8304e-02   2.1077 0.0355113 *        
                time2010           1.2698e-01  1.8853e-02   6.7352 4.126e-11 ***      
                time2011           4.3560e-02  1.5309e-02   2.8455 0.0045995 **       
                time2012           5.8372e-02  1.1618e-02   5.0242 6.844e-07 ***      
                time2013           2.9678e-02  1.2012e-02   2.4707 0.0137859 *        
                time2014          -9.4654e-03  1.0320e-02  -0.9172 0.3594353          
                time2015           2.2485e-02  6.8585e-03   3.2785 0.0011094 **       
                time2016           3.4304e-02  6.3182e-03   5.4294 8.492e-08 ***      
                iis13             -5.4440e-02  1.5369e-02  -3.5422 0.0004304 ***      
                iis19              5.1238e-02  1.5379e-02   3.3317 0.0009211 ***      
                iis114             5.0170e-02  1.5387e-02   3.2605 0.0011807 **       
                iis171             8.6688e-02  1.6897e-02   5.1304 4.012e-07 ***      
                iis187             4.7580e-02  1.5368e-02   3.0960 0.0020614 **       
                iis268            -8.5204e-02  1.5491e-02  -5.5003 5.811e-08 ***      
                iis271            -6.7155e-02  1.5446e-02  -4.3477 1.639e-05 ***      
                iis345             5.0982e-02  1.5375e-02   3.3158 0.0009739 ***      
                iis600            -7.3710e-02  1.5361e-02  -4.7986 2.060e-06 ***      
                fesisAustria.2001  1.8161e-02  5.8640e-03   3.0970 0.0020544 **       
                fesisDenmark.1997 -2.8366e-02  7.1337e-03  -3.9764 7.930e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2020  4.5402e-02  1.1158e-02   4.0690 5.413e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005 -3.4500e-02  8.5762e-03  -4.0228 6.555e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2010  3.5214e-02  8.7366e-03   4.0306 6.346e-05 ***      
                fesisGreece.2017  -3.3286e-02  7.4541e-03  -4.4655 9.694e-06 ***      
                fesisIreland.2009 -3.8285e-02  9.5898e-03  -3.9922 7.432e-05 ***      
                fesisIreland.2012  5.0606e-02  9.9614e-03   5.0802 5.169e-07 ***      
                fesisSpain.1997    2.5144e-02  7.3027e-03   3.4430 0.0006189 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df  p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   10.134  1 0.001455 **       
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 11.730  1 0.000615 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.01473      
                R-squared           0.99988      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  1770.04298      

w. ETS price

AR = 0

                Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 18:09:15 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 340       
                Sample: 1 to 340       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                 -2.1179e-01  3.1347e-01  -0.6756 0.4998339          
                lpop                    -2.4157e-02  7.4237e-02  -0.3254 0.7451179          
                lgdp_wb_sq               8.7461e-03  5.8718e-03   1.4895 0.1374830          
                hdd                      3.4996e-05  6.5992e-06   5.3030 2.321e-07 ***      
                cdd                      4.8718e-05  2.0401e-05   2.3880 0.0176061 *        
                EU_ETS_05                2.3687e-01  8.0035e-02   2.9595 0.0033453 **       
                EU_ETS_08               -4.4516e-02  1.7562e-02  -2.5348 0.0117974 *        
                EU_ETS_13                1.0751e-02  1.5612e-02   0.6886 0.4916327          
                EU_ETS_05:ets_price     -5.6188e-04  5.3187e-04  -1.0564 0.2916858          
                EU_ETS_08:ets_price      2.2629e-03  1.2388e-03   1.8267 0.0688136 .        
                EU_ETS_13:ets_price     -1.3743e-03  1.1327e-03  -1.2133 0.2260384          
                idAustria               -1.1717e+00  1.3954e-01  -8.3964 2.352e-15 ***      
                idBelgium               -9.4879e-01  1.2142e-01  -7.8143 1.133e-13 ***      
                idCanada                 7.7648e-01  4.0750e-02  19.0546 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.8039e+00  1.6670e-01 -10.8218 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -9.1991e-01  1.6788e-01  -5.4798 9.524e-08 ***      
                idFrance                 3.6534e-01  9.3477e-03  39.0834 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                4.2104e-01  2.0508e-02  20.5309 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                -1.1598e+00  1.1749e-01  -9.8714 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -1.9649e+00  1.7918e-01 -10.9664 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  7.1972e-03  1.7534e-02   0.4105 0.6817738          
                idJapan                  1.1668e+00  1.3103e-01   8.9051 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNetherlands           -8.0669e-01  9.4495e-02  -8.5368 9.019e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -1.2075e+00  1.0299e-01 -11.7252 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.2830e+00  1.1760e-01 -10.9098 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -3.3679e-02  3.1090e-02  -1.0833 0.2796264          
                idSweden                -5.2935e-01  1.3379e-01  -3.9566 9.651e-05 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.1961e+00  7.4776e-02 -15.9952 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedStates           2.1189e+00  2.0995e-01  10.0927 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time2005                 4.9660e+00  3.9510e+00   1.2569 0.2098449          
                time2006                 4.9731e+00  3.9507e+00   1.2588 0.2091629          
                time2007                 4.9775e+00  3.9502e+00   1.2601 0.2087039          
                time2008                 4.9879e+00  3.9502e+00   1.2627 0.2077560          
                time2009                 4.9539e+00  3.9505e+00   1.2540 0.2108983          
                time2010                 4.9696e+00  3.9503e+00   1.2580 0.2094330          
                time2011                 4.9665e+00  3.9500e+00   1.2573 0.2096861          
                time2012                 4.9644e+00  3.9497e+00   1.2569 0.2098482          
                time2013                 4.9564e+00  3.9488e+00   1.2552 0.2104709          
                time2014                 4.9458e+00  3.9485e+00   1.2526 0.2114047          
                time2015                 4.9398e+00  3.9483e+00   1.2511 0.2119322          
                time2016                 4.9486e+00  3.9482e+00   1.2534 0.2111240          
                time2017                 4.9477e+00  3.9480e+00   1.2532 0.2111696          
                time2018                 4.9414e+00  3.9478e+00   1.2517 0.2117314          
                time2019                 4.9268e+00  3.9474e+00   1.2481 0.2130340          
                time2020                 4.9218e+00  3.9480e+00   1.2466 0.2135757          
                time2021                 4.9210e+00  3.9469e+00   1.2468 0.2135183          
                iis29                   -6.2739e-02  1.8550e-02  -3.3821 0.0008223 ***      
                iis30                   -5.4859e-02  1.8425e-02  -2.9773 0.0031630 **       
                iis31                   -6.4623e-02  1.8423e-02  -3.5077 0.0005266 ***      
                iis32                   -5.6462e-02  1.8264e-02  -3.0914 0.0021935 **       
                iis141                   7.5477e-02  1.7764e-02   4.2488 2.933e-05 ***      
                iis142                   5.4964e-02  1.7681e-02   3.1086 0.0020739 **       
                fesisAustria.2014        5.7963e-02  9.6832e-03   5.9859 6.596e-09 ***      
                fesisGermany.2018       -4.4637e-02  9.9110e-03  -4.5037 9.824e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -8.7485e-02  9.2817e-03  -9.4255 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2009       4.9693e-02  1.0965e-02   4.5319 8.679e-06 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2015       3.1480e-02  1.0042e-02   3.1347 0.0019036 **       
                fesisSweden.2008        -3.7453e-02  1.0952e-02  -3.4199 0.0007201 ***      
                fesisJapan.2014         -3.7709e-02  1.0539e-02  -3.5779 0.0004082 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2009      3.5894e-02  1.1030e-02   3.2542 0.0012774 **       
                fesisAustralia.2018      3.3266e-02  1.0902e-02   3.0512 0.0024986 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   52.914  1 3.484e-13 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 18.785  1 1.463e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.01614      
                R-squared          0.99987      
                Log-lik.(n=340)  951.04230      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 18:09:20 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 320       
                Sample: 1 to 320       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                         coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                8.0496e-01  3.1243e-02 25.7648 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb           -5.9250e-01  1.1594e-01 -5.1103 6.040e-07 ***      
                lpop               4.6581e-01  2.1856e-01  2.1312 0.0339625 *        
                lgdp_wb_sq         1.0834e-02  1.9786e-03  5.4757 9.857e-08 ***      
                hdd                3.0951e-04  3.3550e-05  9.2251 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                cdd               -6.9270e-04  8.3495e-05 -8.2962 4.918e-15 ***      
                idAustria         -2.3942e-01  3.8423e-02 -6.2310 1.740e-09 ***      
                idBelgium         -2.0343e-01  3.1568e-02 -6.4443 5.208e-10 ***      
                idCanada           1.6006e-01  2.7676e-02  5.7835 1.992e-08 ***      
                idDenmark         -3.8970e-01  6.0423e-02 -6.4496 5.052e-10 ***      
                idFinland         -2.1778e-01  3.2946e-02 -6.6103 1.997e-10 ***      
                idFrance           1.3156e-01  2.3297e-02  5.6470 4.080e-08 ***      
                idGermany          1.5743e-01  2.7910e-02  5.6409 4.212e-08 ***      
                idGreece          -2.6421e-01  4.3499e-02 -6.0741 4.153e-09 ***      
                idIreland         -4.1745e-01  6.7843e-02 -6.1532 2.685e-09 ***      
                idItaly            4.5678e-02  1.0871e-02  4.2018 3.587e-05 ***      
                idJapan            2.6896e-01  4.6278e-02  5.8118 1.714e-08 ***      
                idNetherlands     -1.4965e-01  2.3378e-02 -6.4013 6.657e-10 ***      
                idNewZealand      -3.4632e-01  5.4397e-02 -6.3665 8.115e-10 ***      
                idPortugal        -3.0201e-01  4.7548e-02 -6.3518 8.819e-10 ***      
                idSpain            1.2874e-02  6.7487e-03  1.9077 0.0574798 .        
                idSweden          -1.1936e-01  1.7879e-02 -6.6762 1.358e-10 ***      
                idSwitzerland     -2.6425e-01  4.1473e-02 -6.3716 7.880e-10 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom    5.5590e-02  1.3447e-02  4.1340 4.744e-05 ***      
                idUnitedStates     5.4968e-01  8.9498e-02  6.1417 2.860e-09 ***      
                time2006           1.4052e-01  1.4798e-02  9.4955 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time2007           3.2223e-02  8.1287e-03  3.9641 9.405e-05 ***      
                time2008          -3.3901e-02  1.0792e-02 -3.1414 0.0018657 **       
                time2009          -1.0149e-01  1.9289e-02 -5.2615 2.886e-07 ***      
                time2010           1.3432e-01  1.4328e-02  9.3750 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time2011           1.4378e-02  9.0451e-03  1.5895 0.1130934          
                time2012           1.3387e-01  1.5091e-02  8.8708 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time2013          -3.7247e-02  8.7101e-03 -4.2763 2.627e-05 ***      
                time2014          -1.3243e-01  1.3922e-02 -9.5121 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time2015           9.5894e-03  5.2451e-03  1.8283 0.0685983 .        
                time2016           9.9006e-02  1.0739e-02  9.2189 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis81              5.9854e-02  1.5907e-02  3.7627 0.0002056 ***      
                iis85              4.3281e-02  1.6011e-02  2.7031 0.0072982 **       
                iis133            -7.9003e-02  1.6364e-02 -4.8277 2.298e-06 ***      
                iis136            -7.3293e-02  1.6196e-02 -4.5253 8.997e-06 ***      
                iis149            -5.3470e-02  1.6209e-02 -3.2989 0.0010991 **       
                iis150            -4.3283e-02  1.6126e-02 -2.6841 0.0077149 **       
                iis181             4.7186e-02  1.5951e-02  2.9582 0.0033642 **       
                fesisDenmark.2020  3.9867e-02  1.1630e-02  3.4278 0.0007019 ***      
                fesisGreece.2017  -4.3268e-02  8.6948e-03 -4.9763 1.147e-06 ***      
                fesisIreland.2018  3.2041e-02  9.5331e-03  3.3610 0.0008870 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   14.400  1 0.0001478 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 17.127  1 3.495e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.01497      
                R-squared          0.99988      
                Log-lik.(n=320)  913.39351      

Emissions

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:34:22 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  3.8316e-01  5.2252e-01   0.7333 0.4636822          
                lpop                     2.5710e-02  2.0058e-01   0.1282 0.8980504          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.9737e-03  1.0103e-02  -0.1954 0.8451842          
                hdd                      1.8635e-04  2.8679e-05   6.4980 1.782e-10 ***      
                cdd                      2.9071e-04  8.1415e-05   3.5707 0.0003862 ***      
                idAustria               -2.3864e+00  1.5702e-01 -15.1982 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -1.6929e+00  1.1453e-01 -14.7813 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -9.4728e-01  1.2851e-01  -7.3713 6.000e-13 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.4402e+00  2.1883e-01  -6.5816 1.059e-10 ***      
                idFinland               -2.0095e+00  2.3713e-01  -8.4743 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -1.6448e+00  1.9577e-01  -8.4016 3.543e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.4730e-01  2.3215e-01   0.6345 0.5260232          
                idGreece                -1.1625e+00  9.5293e-02 -12.1987 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -2.0252e+00  2.5858e-01  -7.8319 2.372e-14 ***      
                idItaly                 -5.7817e-01  1.8147e-01  -3.1860 0.0015219 **       
                idJapan                  2.7138e-01  2.9279e-01   0.9269 0.3543760          
                idNetherlands           -1.1563e+00  7.5140e-02 -15.3890 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -2.9421e+00  2.5504e-01 -11.5357 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.6605e+00  9.9377e-02 -16.7086 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -8.1602e-01  1.5359e-01  -5.3129 1.552e-07 ***      
                idSweden                -2.9349e+00  1.5369e-01 -19.0959 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -4.3318e+00  1.9705e-01 -21.9826 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -1.2165e-01  1.9684e-01  -0.6180 0.5368090          
                idUnitedStates           1.5255e+00  3.9093e-01   3.9021 0.0001068 ***      
                time1990                 2.1694e+00  8.1484e+00   0.2662 0.7901524          
                time1991                 2.1838e+00  8.1486e+00   0.2680 0.7887960          
                time1992                 2.2095e+00  8.1487e+00   0.2712 0.7863733          
                time1993                 2.1487e+00  8.1490e+00   0.2637 0.7921204          
                time1994                 2.1748e+00  8.1497e+00   0.2668 0.7896820          
                time1995                 2.2014e+00  8.1496e+00   0.2701 0.7871600          
                time1996                 2.2090e+00  8.1486e+00   0.2711 0.7864221          
                time1997                 2.2281e+00  8.1479e+00   0.2735 0.7845981          
                time1998                 2.2573e+00  8.1477e+00   0.2770 0.7818488          
                time1999                 2.2759e+00  8.1471e+00   0.2794 0.7800766          
                time2000                 2.2820e+00  8.1463e+00   0.2801 0.7794792          
                time2001                 2.2923e+00  8.1462e+00   0.2814 0.7785109          
                time2002                 2.3427e+00  8.1465e+00   0.2876 0.7737849          
                time2003                 2.3337e+00  8.1472e+00   0.2864 0.7746467          
                time2004                 2.3568e+00  8.1453e+00   0.2893 0.7724218          
                time2005                 2.3489e+00  8.1455e+00   0.2884 0.7731728          
                time2006                 2.3518e+00  8.1453e+00   0.2887 0.7728920          
                time2007                 2.3578e+00  8.1448e+00   0.2895 0.7723198          
                time2008                 2.2859e+00  8.1450e+00   0.2807 0.7790799          
                time2009                 2.2088e+00  8.1472e+00   0.2711 0.7864052          
                time2010                 2.1712e+00  8.1467e+00   0.2665 0.7899465          
                time2011                 2.1751e+00  8.1475e+00   0.2670 0.7895961          
                time2012                 2.1486e+00  8.1478e+00   0.2637 0.7921085          
                time2013                 2.0917e+00  8.1478e+00   0.2567 0.7974853          
                time2014                 2.0557e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2523 0.8009054          
                time2015                 2.0169e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2475 0.8045914          
                time2016                 2.0072e+00  8.1483e+00   0.2463 0.8055092          
                time2017                 2.0020e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2457 0.8060029          
                time2018                 1.9131e+00  8.1482e+00   0.2348 0.8144584          
                time2019                 1.8407e+00  8.1480e+00   0.2259 0.8213575          
                time2020                 1.7854e+00  8.1511e+00   0.2190 0.8267030          
                time2021                 1.7780e+00  8.1488e+00   0.2182 0.8273578          
                iis590                  -4.0171e-01  1.0596e-01  -3.7910 0.0001661 ***      
                iis591                  -4.3188e-01  1.0593e-01  -4.0772 5.210e-05 ***      
                iis592                  -3.3574e-01  1.0594e-01  -3.1692 0.0016110 **       
                fesisBelgium.2001       -2.7149e-01  3.7420e-02  -7.2553 1.322e-12 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2006    1.0711e-01  3.8828e-02   2.7586 0.0059920 **       
                fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.4196e-01  5.7791e-02   5.9173 5.662e-09 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1999       -3.2142e-01  5.5455e-02  -5.7961 1.126e-08 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2004       -1.5421e-01  5.6578e-02  -2.7256 0.0066162 **       
                fesisDenmark.2012       -3.8209e-01  5.1375e-02  -7.4373 3.812e-13 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.4894e-01  5.0376e-02  -4.9415 1.021e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1137e-01  4.6523e-02 -10.9919 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisIreland.2004       -2.1441e-01  4.6932e-02  -4.5685 6.028e-06 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2014    2.5604e-01  4.0789e-02   6.2771 6.853e-10 ***      
                fesisJapan.2011          4.7526e-01  3.9446e-02  12.0482 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2008      2.2597e-01  4.0164e-02   5.6262 2.896e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1997     4.5726e-01  4.9717e-02   9.1974 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   114.542  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  42.801  1  6.06e-11 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09648      
                R-squared          0.99675      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  624.46953      
AR = 1

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:35:03 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.5175e-01  2.2181e-02  33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  5.6781e-01  3.8509e-01   1.4745 0.1409309          
                lpop                    -1.6130e+00  1.3830e+00  -1.1663 0.2439960          
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.9816e-02  1.7928e-02   1.1053 0.2695106          
                hdd                     -1.1705e-04  9.7752e-05  -1.1974 0.2316729          
                cdd                     -5.5597e-04  1.3877e-04  -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -6.3176e-01  5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.4086e-01  5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -1.3804e-01  2.2335e-02  -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -6.2118e-01  5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.8652e-01  5.1442e-02  -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -3.6841e-01  3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.3147e-01  2.4002e-02   5.4772 6.607e-08 ***      
                idGreece                -4.1069e-01  3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -6.6552e-01  6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.0204e-01  2.0919e-02  -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***      
                idJapan                  1.9067e-01  2.8861e-02   6.6066 9.369e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands           -2.9494e-01  3.2397e-02  -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.9872e-01  1.0146e-01  -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***      
                idPortugal              -5.4502e-01  5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -2.0901e-01  2.6474e-02  -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***      
                idSweden                -7.5812e-01  6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.0421e+00  9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.5943e-02  2.0967e-02  -1.2373 0.2165155          
                idUnitedStates           6.0911e-01  5.8970e-02  10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                 6.8053e-01  5.0467e-01   1.3485 0.1780665          
                time1992                 6.1693e-01  5.2970e-01   1.1647 0.2446586          
                time1993                 5.9818e-01  5.0715e-01   1.1795 0.2387159          
                time1994                 5.9524e-01  4.5720e-01   1.3019 0.1934943          
                time1995                 6.0853e-01  4.2992e-01   1.4154 0.1575129          
                time1996                 5.9198e-01  4.4349e-01   1.3348 0.1824910          
                time1997                 4.9259e-01  3.8624e-01   1.2754 0.2027228          
                time1998                 4.4824e-01  3.1015e-01   1.4452 0.1489657          
                time1999                 3.8630e-01  2.6544e-01   1.4553 0.1461543          
                time2000                 2.9566e-01  2.3170e-01   1.2761 0.2024795          
                time2001                 3.2250e-01  2.0532e-01   1.5707 0.1168332          
                time2002                 3.3966e-01  1.8858e-01   1.8012 0.0722278 .        
                time2003                 3.2625e-01  1.8875e-01   1.7285 0.0844677 .        
                time2004                 2.2085e-01  1.5696e-01   1.4070 0.1599946          
                time2005                 2.7055e-01  1.0765e-01   2.5132 0.0122524 *        
                time2006                 1.4223e-01  8.4842e-02   1.6764 0.0942343 .        
                time2007                 1.7231e-01  8.2804e-02   2.0810 0.0379048 *        
                time2008                 1.2249e-01  9.1859e-02   1.3334 0.1829439          
                time2009                 1.4885e-01  1.5000e-01   0.9923 0.3214714          
                time2010                 2.0502e-01  9.9568e-02   2.0591 0.0399593 *        
                time2011                 9.7624e-02  8.0935e-02   1.2062 0.2282598          
                time2012                 1.1967e-01  6.1272e-02   1.9531 0.0513195 .        
                time2013                 4.1818e-02  6.3674e-02   0.6567 0.5116212          
                time2014                -2.5925e-02  5.5002e-02  -0.4713 0.6375812          
                time2015                 5.0250e-02  3.6422e-02   1.3797 0.1682551          
                time2016                 3.1824e-02  3.3353e-02   0.9541 0.3404339          
                iis125                   4.0274e-01  8.0939e-02   4.9758 8.725e-07 ***      
                iis127                   2.6002e-01  8.1090e-02   3.2065 0.0014222 **       
                iis128                   2.8400e-01  8.1358e-02   3.4907 0.0005208 ***      
                iis130                   4.7920e-01  8.1655e-02   5.8687 7.633e-09 ***      
                iis137                   2.3442e-01  8.0628e-02   2.9074 0.0037932 **       
                iis140                   3.6872e-01  8.0775e-02   4.5648 6.184e-06 ***      
                iis149                  -2.6431e-01  8.0931e-02  -3.2659 0.0011596 **       
                iis151                  -2.8779e-01  8.1168e-02  -3.5456 0.0004254 ***      
                iis153                  -3.7375e-01  8.1759e-02  -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***      
                iis170                  -3.2264e-01  8.1644e-02  -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***      
                iis171                   4.2612e-01  8.1615e-02   5.2211 2.534e-07 ***      
                iis194                   2.6611e-01  8.0299e-02   3.3140 0.0009809 ***      
                iis410                   2.6767e-01  8.1176e-02   3.2974 0.0010396 **       
                iis440                  -2.8560e-01  8.0757e-02  -3.5365 0.0004400 ***      
                iis454                  -3.3121e-01  8.0460e-02  -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***      
                iis471                  -2.3466e-01  8.0512e-02  -2.9145 0.0037085 **       
                iis502                   3.7161e-01  8.0578e-02   4.6118 4.979e-06 ***      
                iis516                   2.4231e-01  8.0320e-02   3.0168 0.0026737 **       
                fesisFinland.2005       -7.8354e-02  2.9382e-02  -2.6667 0.0078870 **       
                fesisJapan.2010          1.2814e-01  3.0521e-02   4.1983 3.140e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993    -2.7673e-01  7.2047e-02  -3.8410 0.0001370 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996     2.6099e-01  4.9010e-02   5.3251 1.477e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019      -2.3353e-01  4.8134e-02  -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01  3.5525e-02  -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    2.2203  1 0.136204         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243  1 0.001178 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.07682      
                R-squared          0.99796      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  748.82217      

w. ETS price

AR = 0

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Dec  5 20:07:09 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  3.5033e-01  7.0175e-01   0.4992 0.6178237          
                lpop                    -4.2696e-01  2.3726e-01  -1.7995 0.0724822 .        
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.9617e-03  1.3801e-02  -0.1421 0.8870196          
                hdd                      2.0172e-04  2.6888e-05   7.5023 2.517e-13 ***      
                cdd                      3.2009e-04  7.6438e-05   4.1876 3.280e-05 ***      
                EU_ETS_05               -8.2756e-02  4.8718e-02  -1.6987 0.0899413 .        
                EU_ETS_08               -1.9898e-01  9.5520e-02  -2.0832 0.0376956 *        
                EU_ETS_13                6.1017e-02  8.3801e-02   0.7281 0.4668493          
                EU_ETS_05:ets_price     -1.3391e-03  2.8507e-03  -0.4697 0.6387286          
                EU_ETS_08:ets_price      7.8598e-03  6.7708e-03   1.1608 0.2462055          
                EU_ETS_13:ets_price     -1.0512e-02  6.2329e-03  -1.6865 0.0922606 .        
                idAustria               -2.7991e+00  1.6730e-01 -16.7304 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -1.9446e+00  1.1842e-01 -16.4208 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -6.6822e-01  1.3698e-01  -4.8782 1.402e-06 ***      
                idDenmark               -2.0097e+00  2.4305e-01  -8.2687 1.013e-15 ***      
                idFinland               -2.5865e+00  2.5368e-01 -10.1959 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -1.0865e+00  2.3434e-01  -4.6367 4.423e-06 ***      
                idGermany                8.8589e-01  2.8509e-01   3.1074 0.0019845 **       
                idGreece                -1.3908e+00  8.8390e-02 -15.7350 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -2.7983e+00  2.7952e-01 -10.0109 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  3.0947e-02  2.2314e-01   0.1387 0.8897479          
                idJapan                  1.2084e+00  3.5788e-01   3.3765 0.0007858 ***      
                idNetherlands           -1.2733e+00  8.0256e-02 -15.8657 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -3.6836e+00  2.8249e-01 -13.0397 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.8917e+00  9.3326e-02 -20.2703 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -4.7540e-01  1.8387e-01  -2.5855 0.0099779 **       
                idSweden                -3.2643e+00  1.6111e-01 -20.2612 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -4.7517e+00  2.1695e-01 -21.9022 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          4.7415e-01  2.3079e-01   2.0544 0.0404021 *        
                idUnitedStates           2.8980e+00  4.8759e-01   5.9435 4.943e-09 ***      
                time1990                 1.0536e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0344 0.3014219          
                time1991                 1.0551e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0358 0.3007475          
                time1992                 1.0582e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0389 0.2993097          
                time1993                 1.0523e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0331 0.3020276          
                time1994                 1.0553e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0360 0.3006455          
                time1995                 1.0575e+01  1.0186e+01   1.0382 0.2996463          
                time1996                 1.0583e+01  1.0185e+01   1.0391 0.2992224          
                time1997                 1.0609e+01  1.0183e+01   1.0418 0.2979724          
                time1998                 1.0641e+01  1.0182e+01   1.0451 0.2964396          
                time1999                 1.0650e+01  1.0181e+01   1.0460 0.2960010          
                time2000                 1.0661e+01  1.0179e+01   1.0473 0.2954038          
                time2001                 1.0668e+01  1.0179e+01   1.0481 0.2950356          
                time2002                 1.0717e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0530 0.2928174          
                time2003                 1.0708e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0521 0.2932279          
                time2004                 1.0719e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0533 0.2926797          
                time2005                 1.0801e+01  1.0179e+01   1.0611 0.2891125          
                time2006                 1.0810e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0622 0.2886277          
                time2007                 1.0808e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0620 0.2886924          
                time2008                 1.0804e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0616 0.2888618          
                time2009                 1.0762e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0573 0.2908349          
                time2010                 1.0717e+01  1.0178e+01   1.0530 0.2927967          
                time2011                 1.0778e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0590 0.2900394          
                time2012                 1.0738e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0551 0.2918609          
                time2013                 1.0687e+01  1.0176e+01   1.0501 0.2941172          
                time2014                 1.0661e+01  1.0176e+01   1.0476 0.2952758          
                time2015                 1.0628e+01  1.0175e+01   1.0445 0.2967150          
                time2016                 1.0600e+01  1.0175e+01   1.0417 0.2979935          
                time2017                 1.0613e+01  1.0174e+01   1.0432 0.2973346          
                time2018                 1.0533e+01  1.0173e+01   1.0354 0.3009537          
                time2019                 1.0491e+01  1.0173e+01   1.0312 0.3028786          
                time2020                 1.0439e+01  1.0177e+01   1.0258 0.3054566          
                time2021                 1.0511e+01  1.0174e+01   1.0331 0.3020008          
                iis202                  -2.7240e-01  9.7134e-02  -2.8044 0.0052180 **       
                iis590                  -4.2087e-01  9.7352e-02  -4.3232 1.824e-05 ***      
                iis591                  -4.5225e-01  9.7277e-02  -4.6491 4.174e-06 ***      
                iis592                  -3.2237e-01  9.8087e-02  -3.2865 0.0010787 **       
                fesisCanada.2005        -1.7280e-01  3.8816e-02  -4.4518 1.031e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2005  -1.8291e-01  4.9683e-02  -3.6815 0.0002546 ***      
                fesisAustria.2008        9.4961e-02  3.6722e-02   2.5859 0.0099664 **       
                fesisAustria.2018        2.3333e-01  5.4792e-02   4.2585 2.418e-05 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2001       -2.0553e-01  3.4637e-02  -5.9338 5.224e-09 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2018    2.7474e-01  5.3627e-02   5.1231 4.159e-07 ***      
                fesisGermany.2012        1.0894e-01  4.1379e-02   2.6329 0.0087038 **       
                fesisDenmark.1999       -3.6458e-01  4.0774e-02  -8.9415 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2011       -3.6052e-01  4.3748e-02  -8.2408 1.247e-15 ***      
                fesisSpain.1999          1.6962e-01  3.8862e-02   4.3648 1.519e-05 ***      
                fesisFrance.2005         1.7933e-01  3.5125e-02   5.1054 4.547e-07 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.0796e-01  4.8284e-02  -4.3071 1.958e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.3120e-01  4.4787e-02  -9.6278 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.1995    1.2740e-01  4.6171e-02   2.7594 0.0059833 **       
                fesisNetherlands.2014    3.0050e-01  3.9408e-02   7.6253 1.068e-13 ***      
                fesisSweden.2016         2.1876e-01  4.3013e-02   5.0860 5.016e-07 ***      
                fesisJapan.2012          2.7668e-01  4.6651e-02   5.9309 5.313e-09 ***      
                fesisAustralia.1999      1.5738e-01  4.2462e-02   3.7064 0.0002313 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1997     4.5795e-01  5.5082e-02   8.3141 7.210e-16 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.2002     1.5045e-01  5.5415e-02   2.7149 0.0068372 **       
                fesisNewZealand.2009    -3.0121e-01  4.7277e-02  -6.3711 3.954e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   61.772  1 3.886e-15 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 30.803  1 2.857e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08838      
                R-squared          0.99734      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  688.08592      
AR = 1

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Dec  5 20:07:04 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.5175e-01  2.2181e-02  33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  5.6781e-01  3.8509e-01   1.4745 0.1409309          
                lpop                    -1.6130e+00  1.3830e+00  -1.1663 0.2439960          
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.9816e-02  1.7928e-02   1.1053 0.2695106          
                hdd                     -1.1705e-04  9.7752e-05  -1.1974 0.2316729          
                cdd                     -5.5597e-04  1.3877e-04  -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -6.3176e-01  5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.4086e-01  5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -1.3804e-01  2.2335e-02  -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -6.2118e-01  5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.8652e-01  5.1442e-02  -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -3.6841e-01  3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.3147e-01  2.4002e-02   5.4772 6.607e-08 ***      
                idGreece                -4.1069e-01  3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -6.6552e-01  6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.0204e-01  2.0919e-02  -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***      
                idJapan                  1.9067e-01  2.8861e-02   6.6066 9.369e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands           -2.9494e-01  3.2397e-02  -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.9872e-01  1.0146e-01  -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***      
                idPortugal              -5.4502e-01  5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -2.0901e-01  2.6474e-02  -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***      
                idSweden                -7.5812e-01  6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.0421e+00  9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.5943e-02  2.0967e-02  -1.2373 0.2165155          
                idUnitedStates           6.0911e-01  5.8970e-02  10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                 6.8053e-01  5.0467e-01   1.3485 0.1780665          
                time1992                 6.1693e-01  5.2970e-01   1.1647 0.2446586          
                time1993                 5.9818e-01  5.0715e-01   1.1795 0.2387159          
                time1994                 5.9524e-01  4.5720e-01   1.3019 0.1934943          
                time1995                 6.0853e-01  4.2992e-01   1.4154 0.1575129          
                time1996                 5.9198e-01  4.4349e-01   1.3348 0.1824910          
                time1997                 4.9259e-01  3.8624e-01   1.2754 0.2027228          
                time1998                 4.4824e-01  3.1015e-01   1.4452 0.1489657          
                time1999                 3.8630e-01  2.6544e-01   1.4553 0.1461543          
                time2000                 2.9566e-01  2.3170e-01   1.2761 0.2024795          
                time2001                 3.2250e-01  2.0532e-01   1.5707 0.1168332          
                time2002                 3.3966e-01  1.8858e-01   1.8012 0.0722278 .        
                time2003                 3.2625e-01  1.8875e-01   1.7285 0.0844677 .        
                time2004                 2.2085e-01  1.5696e-01   1.4070 0.1599946          
                time2005                 2.7055e-01  1.0765e-01   2.5132 0.0122524 *        
                time2006                 1.4223e-01  8.4842e-02   1.6764 0.0942343 .        
                time2007                 1.7231e-01  8.2804e-02   2.0810 0.0379048 *        
                time2008                 1.2249e-01  9.1859e-02   1.3334 0.1829439          
                time2009                 1.4885e-01  1.5000e-01   0.9923 0.3214714          
                time2010                 2.0502e-01  9.9568e-02   2.0591 0.0399593 *        
                time2011                 9.7624e-02  8.0935e-02   1.2062 0.2282598          
                time2012                 1.1967e-01  6.1272e-02   1.9531 0.0513195 .        
                time2013                 4.1818e-02  6.3674e-02   0.6567 0.5116212          
                time2014                -2.5925e-02  5.5002e-02  -0.4713 0.6375812          
                time2015                 5.0250e-02  3.6422e-02   1.3797 0.1682551          
                time2016                 3.1824e-02  3.3353e-02   0.9541 0.3404339          
                iis125                   4.0274e-01  8.0939e-02   4.9758 8.725e-07 ***      
                iis127                   2.6002e-01  8.1090e-02   3.2065 0.0014222 **       
                iis128                   2.8400e-01  8.1358e-02   3.4907 0.0005208 ***      
                iis130                   4.7920e-01  8.1655e-02   5.8687 7.633e-09 ***      
                iis137                   2.3442e-01  8.0628e-02   2.9074 0.0037932 **       
                iis140                   3.6872e-01  8.0775e-02   4.5648 6.184e-06 ***      
                iis149                  -2.6431e-01  8.0931e-02  -3.2659 0.0011596 **       
                iis151                  -2.8779e-01  8.1168e-02  -3.5456 0.0004254 ***      
                iis153                  -3.7375e-01  8.1759e-02  -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***      
                iis170                  -3.2264e-01  8.1644e-02  -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***      
                iis171                   4.2612e-01  8.1615e-02   5.2211 2.534e-07 ***      
                iis194                   2.6611e-01  8.0299e-02   3.3140 0.0009809 ***      
                iis410                   2.6767e-01  8.1176e-02   3.2974 0.0010396 **       
                iis440                  -2.8560e-01  8.0757e-02  -3.5365 0.0004400 ***      
                iis454                  -3.3121e-01  8.0460e-02  -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***      
                iis471                  -2.3466e-01  8.0512e-02  -2.9145 0.0037085 **       
                iis502                   3.7161e-01  8.0578e-02   4.6118 4.979e-06 ***      
                iis516                   2.4231e-01  8.0320e-02   3.0168 0.0026737 **       
                fesisFinland.2005       -7.8354e-02  2.9382e-02  -2.6667 0.0078870 **       
                fesisJapan.2010          1.2814e-01  3.0521e-02   4.1983 3.140e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993    -2.7673e-01  7.2047e-02  -3.8410 0.0001370 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996     2.6099e-01  4.9010e-02   5.3251 1.477e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019      -2.3353e-01  4.8134e-02  -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01  3.5525e-02  -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    2.2203  1 0.136204         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243  1 0.001178 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.07682      
                R-squared          0.99796      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  748.82217      

Exports Elec Twh

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Tue Dec 20 11:40:20 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                 -2.7807e+00  1.1757e+00 -2.3652 0.0183610 *        
                lpop                    -2.8534e+00  3.8202e-01 -7.4694 3.139e-13 ***      
                lgdp_wb_sq               6.8305e-02  2.3074e-02  2.9603 0.0032048 **       
                hdd                      5.2232e-06  6.0573e-05  0.0862 0.9313146          
                cdd                      1.3610e-04  1.7117e-04  0.7951 0.4268949          
                idAustria                1.0196e+00  3.0305e-01  3.3644 0.0008199 ***      
                idBelgium                1.0959e+00  2.2279e-01  4.9190 1.147e-06 ***      
                idCanada                 4.7995e+00  2.6999e-01 17.7767 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -3.8305e-01  4.0819e-01 -0.9384 0.3484341          
                idFinland               -1.8144e+00  4.4766e-01 -4.0532 5.772e-05 ***      
                idFrance                 6.6902e+00  3.8458e-01 17.3960 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                6.6282e+00  4.6209e-01 14.3438 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                 3.7920e-01  1.8642e-01  2.0341 0.0424173 *        
                idIreland               -2.8836e+00  4.6401e-01 -6.2145 1.010e-09 ***      
                idItaly                  2.9395e+00  3.5609e-01  8.2550 1.110e-15 ***      
                idJapan                  3.7326e+00  5.8101e-01  6.4244 2.847e-10 ***      
                idNetherlands            1.4354e+00  1.6383e-01  8.7611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -2.9765e+00  4.3585e-01 -6.8291 2.246e-11 ***      
                idPortugal               8.2375e-01  1.9785e-01  4.1635 3.632e-05 ***      
                idSpain                  3.9134e+00  2.9397e-01 13.3122 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSweden                 1.2812e+00  3.0237e-01  4.2372 2.649e-05 ***      
                idSwitzerland            9.9469e-01  3.6654e-01  2.7138 0.0068585 **       
                idUnitedKingdom          2.4609e+00  3.8056e-01  6.4665 2.199e-10 ***      
                idUnitedStates           7.0932e+00  8.1110e-01  8.7452 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1990                 7.2520e+01  1.6467e+01  4.4040 1.275e-05 ***      
                time1991                 7.2473e+01  1.6466e+01  4.4013 1.291e-05 ***      
                time1992                 7.2510e+01  1.6465e+01  4.4038 1.276e-05 ***      
                time1993                 7.2533e+01  1.6466e+01  4.4051 1.269e-05 ***      
                time1994                 7.2529e+01  1.6466e+01  4.4047 1.271e-05 ***      
                time1995                 7.2533e+01  1.6464e+01  4.4056 1.266e-05 ***      
                time1996                 7.2648e+01  1.6461e+01  4.4134 1.223e-05 ***      
                time1997                 7.2646e+01  1.6460e+01  4.4134 1.223e-05 ***      
                time1998                 7.2636e+01  1.6459e+01  4.4131 1.224e-05 ***      
                time1999                 7.2669e+01  1.6457e+01  4.4157 1.210e-05 ***      
                time2000                 7.2661e+01  1.6454e+01  4.4162 1.208e-05 ***      
                time2001                 7.2698e+01  1.6453e+01  4.4186 1.195e-05 ***      
                time2002                 7.2734e+01  1.6452e+01  4.4209 1.183e-05 ***      
                time2003                 7.2751e+01  1.6455e+01  4.4212 1.181e-05 ***      
                time2004                 7.2717e+01  1.6452e+01  4.4199 1.188e-05 ***      
                time2005                 7.2788e+01  1.6452e+01  4.4243 1.165e-05 ***      
                time2006                 7.2831e+01  1.6451e+01  4.4272 1.150e-05 ***      
                time2007                 7.2873e+01  1.6449e+01  4.4303 1.134e-05 ***      
                time2008                 7.2881e+01  1.6449e+01  4.4307 1.132e-05 ***      
                time2009                 7.2926e+01  1.6455e+01  4.4320 1.125e-05 ***      
                time2010                 7.2967e+01  1.6453e+01  4.4349 1.111e-05 ***      
                time2011                 7.2966e+01  1.6453e+01  4.4349 1.110e-05 ***      
                time2012                 7.2976e+01  1.6456e+01  4.4347 1.112e-05 ***      
                time2013                 7.3007e+01  1.6455e+01  4.4367 1.101e-05 ***      
                time2014                 7.3056e+01  1.6453e+01  4.4402 1.084e-05 ***      
                time2015                 7.3079e+01  1.6452e+01  4.4419 1.076e-05 ***      
                time2016                 7.3084e+01  1.6451e+01  4.4425 1.073e-05 ***      
                time2017                 7.3092e+01  1.6450e+01  4.4434 1.069e-05 ***      
                time2018                 7.3032e+01  1.6449e+01  4.4398 1.086e-05 ***      
                time2019                 7.3120e+01  1.6448e+01  4.4455 1.059e-05 ***      
                time2020                 7.3239e+01  1.6455e+01  4.4510 1.033e-05 ***      
                time2021                 7.3199e+01  1.6449e+01  4.4501 1.037e-05 ***      
                iis56                   -6.3222e-01  2.1699e-01 -2.9135 0.0037173 **       
                iis181                   8.6572e-01  2.1071e-01  4.1087 4.578e-05 ***      
                iis246                   8.9540e-01  2.1268e-01  4.2100 2.978e-05 ***      
                iis247                   8.8689e-01  2.1221e-01  4.1793 3.396e-05 ***      
                iis407                  -1.0452e+00  2.1593e-01 -4.8405 1.680e-06 ***      
                iis408                  -9.0031e-01  2.1610e-01 -4.1663 3.589e-05 ***      
                iis409                  -1.2095e+00  2.1603e-01 -5.5987 3.396e-08 ***      
                iis410                  -1.1836e+00  2.1584e-01 -5.4835 6.338e-08 ***      
                iis411                  -1.1859e+00  2.1585e-01 -5.4940 5.988e-08 ***      
                iis412                  -9.9759e-01  2.1616e-01 -4.6150 4.885e-06 ***      
                iis413                  -1.0547e+00  2.1763e-01 -4.8461 1.635e-06 ***      
                iis414                  -1.2240e+00  2.1628e-01 -5.6596 2.433e-08 ***      
                iis415                  -1.2653e+00  2.1585e-01 -5.8620 7.847e-09 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2012  -5.9240e-01  9.9931e-02 -5.9281 5.383e-09 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2014       -9.6086e-01  1.5205e-01 -6.3194 5.389e-10 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2016        9.2630e-01  1.6795e-01  5.5152 5.344e-08 ***      
                fesisSpain.2004          5.8672e-01  7.6708e-02  7.6486 8.998e-14 ***      
                fesisFinland.2003        4.2331e-01  8.0992e-02  5.2266 2.447e-07 ***      
                fesisFrance.2007        -4.6561e-01  7.6125e-02 -6.1164 1.805e-09 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2003  7.4514e-01  7.9739e-02  9.3448 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2014        -3.6024e-01  9.3129e-02 -3.8682 0.0001226 ***      
                fesisItaly.2007          3.0693e-01  9.4984e-02  3.2313 0.0013050 **       
                fesisItaly.2014          4.5120e-01  1.0844e-01  4.1610 3.671e-05 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2009    8.0160e-01  8.7804e-02  9.1294 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisSweden.2006        -3.3060e-01  1.0001e-01 -3.3058 0.0010081 **       
                fesisSweden.2012         6.8786e-01  1.0711e-01  6.4221 2.887e-10 ***      
                fesisJapan.2005         -5.1515e-01  7.8843e-02 -6.5340 1.449e-10 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2003     -2.7889e-01  8.3720e-02 -3.3312 0.0009222 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   107.834  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  32.353  1 1.286e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.20041      
                R-squared          0.98226      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  162.59742      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Tue Dec 20 11:40:15 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.2420e-01  2.5856e-02 28.0092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                 -1.1315e-01  8.0950e-01 -0.1398 0.8888847          
                lpop                     2.8915e+00  2.9355e+00  0.9850 0.3250669          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -5.7883e-02  3.8116e-02 -1.5186 0.1294433          
                hdd                     -3.3956e-04  2.0601e-04 -1.6483 0.0998697 .        
                cdd                      1.8851e-05  2.9258e-04  0.0644 0.9486511          
                idAustria                7.7847e-01  8.1257e-02  9.5803 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium                6.0673e-01  7.2453e-02  8.3741 4.760e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 1.1000e+00  1.0759e-01 10.2239 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark                6.4188e-01  7.3356e-02  8.7503 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland                8.5422e-02  6.7363e-02  1.2681 0.2053127          
                idFrance                 1.1663e+00  1.1587e-01 10.0656 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.1189e+00  1.1023e-01 10.1504 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                 3.1314e-01  4.8078e-02  6.5132 1.679e-10 ***      
                idIreland                9.6816e-02  4.1318e-02  2.3432 0.0194795 *        
                idItaly                  3.0313e-01  4.8107e-02  6.3012 6.112e-10 ***      
                idJapan                  5.7103e-14  4.0687e-02  0.0000 1.0000000          
                idNetherlands            1.8268e-01  6.6745e-02  2.7370 0.0064034 **       
                idNewZealand             5.7133e-14  4.0687e-02  0.0000 1.0000000          
                idPortugal               4.2878e-01  5.5595e-02  7.7126 5.928e-14 ***      
                idSpain                  6.8094e-01  7.2339e-02  9.4133 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSweden                 8.5328e-01  8.4708e-02 10.0732 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland            9.5868e-01  9.8015e-02  9.7809 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          1.0204e-01  5.7525e-02  1.7739 0.0766474 .        
                idUnitedStates           7.2704e-01  8.0348e-02  9.0487 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                -1.5712e+00  1.0711e+00 -1.4668 0.1430042          
                time1992                -1.4598e+00  1.1236e+00 -1.2992 0.1944145          
                time1993                -1.3763e+00  1.0762e+00 -1.2789 0.2014896          
                time1994                -1.2870e+00  9.7027e-01 -1.3265 0.1852446          
                time1995                -1.2318e+00  9.1246e-01 -1.3499 0.1775979          
                time1996                -1.0778e+00  9.4101e-01 -1.1453 0.2525789          
                time1997                -1.0926e+00  8.1893e-01 -1.3341 0.1827186          
                time1998                -1.1593e+00  6.5734e-01 -1.7637 0.0783497 .        
                time1999                -8.8781e-01  5.6255e-01 -1.5782 0.1151093          
                time2000                -7.0409e-01  4.9048e-01 -1.4355 0.1517146          
                time2001                -7.2836e-01  4.3458e-01 -1.6760 0.0943132 .        
                time2002                -5.9995e-01  3.9927e-01 -1.5026 0.1335242          
                time2003                -5.0041e-01  3.9928e-01 -1.2533 0.2106456          
                time2004                -4.8116e-01  3.3107e-01 -1.4534 0.1466980          
                time2005                -3.8386e-01  2.2744e-01 -1.6878 0.0920309 .        
                time2006                -4.0031e-01  1.7806e-01 -2.2481 0.0249672 *        
                time2007                -2.7527e-01  1.7387e-01 -1.5832 0.1139670          
                time2008                -2.6864e-01  1.9296e-01 -1.3922 0.1644443          
                time2009                -3.8272e-01  3.1681e-01 -1.2080 0.2275604          
                time2010                -4.0295e-01  2.0995e-01 -1.9192 0.0554792 .        
                time2011                -3.1240e-01  1.7051e-01 -1.8322 0.0674745 .        
                time2012                -3.2359e-01  1.2939e-01 -2.5010 0.0126788 *        
                time2013                -1.7896e-01  1.3393e-01 -1.3363 0.1820256          
                time2014                 1.3853e-02  1.1601e-01  0.1194 0.9049905          
                time2015                -1.0059e-01  7.5854e-02 -1.3261 0.1853563          
                time2016                -1.9677e-01  6.9926e-02 -2.8140 0.0050706 **       
                iis88                    1.1222e+00  1.8495e-01  6.0674 2.440e-09 ***      
                iis91                    8.2186e-01  2.3414e-01  3.5101 0.0004851 ***      
                iis93                    6.0355e-01  2.3261e-01  2.5947 0.0097231 **       
                iis130                   1.1242e+00  1.6756e-01  6.7095 4.920e-11 ***      
                iis161                   8.7889e-01  1.7482e-01  5.0274 6.764e-07 ***      
                iis168                   9.2846e-01  1.7084e-01  5.4346 8.305e-08 ***      
                iis170                  -1.3775e+00  1.7233e-01 -7.9932 7.949e-15 ***      
                iis177                  -7.0547e-01  1.7079e-01 -4.1306 4.188e-05 ***      
                iis272                  -1.0619e+00  1.6789e-01 -6.3251 5.291e-10 ***      
                iis277                  -5.1544e-01  1.6758e-01 -3.0758 0.0022053 **       
                iis279                   7.9124e-01  1.6837e-01  4.6995 3.310e-06 ***      
                iis381                   8.4010e-01  1.7733e-01  4.7373 2.768e-06 ***      
                iis512                  -6.4931e-01  1.6736e-01 -3.8797 0.0001174 ***      
                iis515                  -5.5228e-01  1.6749e-01 -3.2975 0.0010394 **       
                iis571                   6.0341e-01  1.8069e-01  3.3396 0.0008967 ***      
                iis577                   6.2135e-01  1.7167e-01  3.6194 0.0003229 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2014       -4.6975e-01  8.9664e-02 -5.2389 2.314e-07 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2019        4.8215e-01  1.8444e-01  2.6141 0.0091944 **       
                fesisFinland.2000        4.0938e-01  7.4677e-02  5.4820 6.449e-08 ***      
                fesisFinland.2016       -5.2631e-01  1.2514e-01 -4.2057 3.044e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2018        6.4392e-01  1.4259e-01  4.5160 7.735e-06 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.1999    3.2494e-01  8.7140e-02  3.7289 0.0002125 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2008    2.8969e-01  7.6008e-02  3.8113 0.0001541 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2002  2.7272e-01  9.1117e-02  2.9931 0.0028871 **       
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2008 -6.3298e-01  1.8030e-01 -3.5107 0.0004840 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2009  5.8593e-01  1.7124e-01  3.4217 0.0006692 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                    Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    0.90247  1    0.3421          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 18.82309  1 1.434e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.16018      
                R-squared          0.98858      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  294.24627      

w. ETS price

AR = 0

                Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Tue Dec 20 11:42:39 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 340       
                Sample: 1 to 340       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                              coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                 1.1825e+01  3.9226e+00  3.0146 0.0028155 **       
                lpop                   -2.7171e-01  6.2576e-01 -0.4342 0.6644822          
                lgdp_wb_sq             -2.1386e-01  7.4316e-02 -2.8777 0.0043222 **       
                hdd                    -4.9137e-06  7.2067e-05 -0.0682 0.9456901          
                cdd                     2.9864e-04  2.2734e-04  1.3136 0.1900739          
                EU_ETS_05               1.9064e+00  6.3997e-01  2.9789 0.0031529 **       
                EU_ETS_08               2.9947e-01  1.9489e-01  1.5366 0.1255382          
                EU_ETS_13              -9.6629e-02  1.7028e-01 -0.5675 0.5708503          
                EU_ETS_05:ets_price    -1.0310e-03  5.7619e-03 -0.1789 0.8581174          
                EU_ETS_08:ets_price    -1.7542e-02  1.3821e-02 -1.2693 0.2054287          
                EU_ETS_13:ets_price     2.2349e-02  1.2662e-02  1.7650 0.0786784 .        
                idAustria               1.0160e+00  1.1787e+00  0.8620 0.3894583          
                idBelgium               4.5679e-01  1.0336e+00  0.4419 0.6588804          
                idCanada                4.1476e+00  3.3148e-01 12.5123 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               7.6707e-01  1.4021e+00  0.5471 0.5847587          
                idFinland              -3.6709e-01  1.4353e+00 -0.2558 0.7983311          
                idFrance                2.7111e+00  1.0133e-01 26.7554 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany               2.9802e+00  1.6531e-01 18.0274 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece               -4.5999e-01  1.0010e+00 -0.4595 0.6462318          
                idIreland              -1.3871e+00  1.5018e+00 -0.9236 0.3564958          
                idItaly                -4.6093e-01  1.9400e-01 -2.3760 0.0181917 *        
                idJapan                 9.2248e-01  1.0332e+00  0.8928 0.3727358          
                idNetherlands           8.6141e-01  8.0380e-01  1.0717 0.2848143          
                idNewZealand            4.2393e-01  9.1678e-01  0.4624 0.6441594          
                idPortugal             -1.5823e-01  1.0146e+00 -0.1560 0.8761860          
                idSpain                 8.9783e-01  3.2658e-01  2.7492 0.0063722 **       
                idSweden                9.6785e-01  1.1360e+00  0.8520 0.3949680          
                idSwitzerland           3.4561e+00  6.7854e-01  5.0935 6.566e-07 ***      
                idUnitedStates          5.3607e+00  1.7897e+00  2.9953 0.0029936 **       
                time2005               -1.5907e+02  5.2090e+01 -3.0537 0.0024832 **       
                time2006               -1.5905e+02  5.2086e+01 -3.0535 0.0024852 **       
                time2007               -1.5901e+02  5.2081e+01 -3.0531 0.0024885 **       
                time2008               -1.5901e+02  5.2080e+01 -3.0532 0.0024873 **       
                time2009               -1.5904e+02  5.2088e+01 -3.0532 0.0024875 **       
                time2010               -1.5900e+02  5.2084e+01 -3.0527 0.0024914 **       
                time2011               -1.5898e+02  5.2083e+01 -3.0524 0.0024940 **       
                time2012               -1.5908e+02  5.2084e+01 -3.0544 0.0024782 **       
                time2013               -1.5911e+02  5.2078e+01 -3.0553 0.0024711 **       
                time2014               -1.5905e+02  5.2076e+01 -3.0541 0.0024802 **       
                time2015               -1.5903e+02  5.2072e+01 -3.0541 0.0024807 **       
                time2016               -1.5905e+02  5.2071e+01 -3.0545 0.0024773 **       
                time2017               -1.5901e+02  5.2066e+01 -3.0540 0.0024814 **       
                time2018               -1.5909e+02  5.2066e+01 -3.0555 0.0024691 **       
                time2019               -1.5907e+02  5.2064e+01 -3.0553 0.0024710 **       
                time2020               -1.5902e+02  5.2074e+01 -3.0537 0.0024838 **       
                time2021               -1.5911e+02  5.2067e+01 -3.0559 0.0024661 **       
                iis26                  -5.0189e-01  1.9799e-01 -2.5350 0.0118039 *        
                iis52                  -5.5363e-01  2.2199e-01 -2.4940 0.0132250 *        
                iis53                  -9.2020e-01  2.2132e-01 -4.1577 4.308e-05 ***      
                iis56                  -5.8035e-01  2.2191e-01 -2.6153 0.0094108 **       
                iis197                 -7.3840e-01  1.8936e-01 -3.8995 0.0001214 ***      
                iis198                 -7.2265e-01  1.8892e-01 -3.8252 0.0001620 ***      
                iis199                 -8.1130e-01  1.8997e-01 -4.2707 2.692e-05 ***      
                iis214                 -4.7825e-01  1.9542e-01 -2.4473 0.0150220 *        
                iis222                  4.4641e-01  1.9245e-01  2.3196 0.0211003 *        
                iis229                 -5.0879e-01  1.9549e-01 -2.6026 0.0097580 **       
                iis289                  4.2985e-01  2.2262e-01  1.9309 0.0545318 .        
                fesisCanada.2012        3.6706e-01  9.7996e-02  3.7456 0.0002195 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2011 -4.2739e-01  1.1792e-01 -3.6244 0.0003455 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2018  4.1184e-01  1.3486e-01  3.0537 0.0024835 **       
                fesisBelgium.2014      -2.5792e-01  1.4321e-01 -1.8010 0.0728084 .        
                fesisBelgium.2019       4.1629e-01  1.8172e-01  2.2909 0.0227326 *        
                fesisDenmark.2011      -3.1929e-01  9.4696e-02 -3.3718 0.0008548 ***      
                fesisGreece.2014       -4.7622e-01  1.0653e-01 -4.4705 1.145e-05 ***      
                fesisItaly.2015         4.3100e-01  9.7629e-02  4.4146 1.459e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2013      3.7509e-01  1.0426e-01  3.5977 0.0003811 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012        4.1064e-01  9.7859e-02  4.1962 3.674e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   17.151  1 3.452e-05 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 17.726  1 2.552e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.17600      
                R-squared          0.98683      
                Log-lik.(n=340)  141.72376      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Tue Dec 20 11:42:41 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 320       
                Sample: 1 to 320       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                              coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                     5.6683e-01  3.7975e-02 14.9265 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                -1.4905e-01  1.2429e+00 -0.1199 0.9046373          
                lpop                    1.9688e+00  2.3423e+00  0.8406 0.4013452          
                lgdp_wb_sq             -3.6129e-02  2.0612e-02 -1.7528 0.0807770 .        
                hdd                    -4.0233e-04  3.6271e-04 -1.1092 0.2683188          
                cdd                     3.6389e-04  9.0729e-04  0.4011 0.6886890          
                idAustria               1.2890e+00  1.2627e-01 10.2086 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               1.0582e+00  1.0784e-01  9.8125 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                1.7765e+00  1.6415e-01 10.8229 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               1.0877e+00  1.0988e-01  9.8988 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               7.7799e-01  8.5333e-02  9.1171 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                1.8073e+00  1.6831e-01 10.7380 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany               1.8413e+00  1.7050e-01 10.7994 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                6.1400e-01  7.6375e-02  8.0392 2.879e-14 ***      
                idIreland               2.5110e-01  5.9949e-02  4.1886 3.808e-05 ***      
                idItaly                 6.5849e-01  7.7998e-02  8.4424 1.954e-15 ***      
                idJapan                -1.1110e-14  5.6987e-02  0.0000 1.0000000          
                idNetherlands           1.2233e+00  1.1559e-01 10.5829 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand           -1.1264e-14  5.6987e-02  0.0000 1.0000000          
                idPortugal              4.5337e-01  1.1734e-01  3.8638 0.0001400 ***      
                idSpain                 1.2057e+00  1.1848e-01 10.1764 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSweden                1.4686e+00  1.3297e-01 11.0444 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           1.5217e+00  1.4552e-01 10.4565 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         6.3310e-01  7.6532e-02  8.2723 6.134e-15 ***      
                idUnitedStates          1.4628e+00  1.6131e-01  9.0684 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time2006               -3.4173e-01  1.5980e-01 -2.1385 0.0333743 *        
                time2007               -2.0518e-01  8.7739e-02 -2.3385 0.0200926 *        
                time2008               -1.6134e-01  1.1646e-01 -1.3854 0.1670798          
                time2009               -1.8507e-01  2.0737e-01 -0.8924 0.3729556          
                time2010               -3.1989e-01  1.5157e-01 -2.1105 0.0357351 *        
                time2011               -2.2938e-01  9.7365e-02 -2.3559 0.0191976 *        
                time2012               -2.8844e-01  1.6345e-01 -1.7647 0.0787501 .        
                time2013               -1.0773e-01  9.3236e-02 -1.1555 0.2489219          
                time2014                9.6092e-02  1.5115e-01  0.6357 0.5254847          
                time2015               -5.3189e-02  5.5907e-02 -0.9514 0.3422619          
                time2016               -1.5492e-01  1.1547e-01 -1.3417 0.1808127          
                iis41                  -6.8171e-01  1.7375e-01 -3.9235 0.0001109 ***      
                iis42                  -7.1409e-01  1.7520e-01 -4.0759 6.040e-05 ***      
                iis45                  -6.3125e-01  1.7365e-01 -3.6352 0.0003328 ***      
                iis87                  -6.8171e-01  1.7460e-01 -3.9044 0.0001195 ***      
                iis137                 -1.0690e+00  1.7315e-01 -6.1739 2.446e-09 ***      
                iis144                  1.1241e+00  2.0314e-01  5.5336 7.441e-08 ***      
                iis257                 -6.8091e-01  1.7151e-01 -3.9701 9.225e-05 ***      
                iis260                 -7.0197e-01  1.7157e-01 -4.0914 5.671e-05 ***      
                iis291                 -5.9010e-01  1.7133e-01 -3.4442 0.0006641 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2019       4.2579e-01  1.0920e-01  3.8992 0.0001219 ***      
                fesisFinland.2016      -5.1232e-01  1.2958e-01 -3.9537 9.843e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2018       5.9889e-01  1.4369e-01  4.1679 4.148e-05 ***      
                fesisGreece.2019       -5.2577e-01  1.2720e-01 -4.1333 4.782e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2009      3.6582e-01  1.0670e-01  3.4284 0.0007023 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2009 -3.5711e-01  1.0881e-01 -3.2819 0.0011676 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   0.21771  1 0.640794         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 7.16287  1 0.007443 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.16118      
                R-squared          0.98838      
                Log-lik.(n=320)  155.50489      

Generation

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:43:57 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  1.3915e+00  2.0082e-01   6.9289 1.176e-11 ***      
                lpop                    -1.0622e-01  7.8012e-02  -1.3616 0.1738701          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.8123e-02  3.9373e-03  -4.6029 5.165e-06 ***      
                hdd                      4.2891e-05  1.2547e-05   3.4186 0.0006756 ***      
                cdd                      1.4015e-04  3.5116e-05   3.9909 7.461e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -9.2927e-01  6.4961e-02 -14.3050 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -6.4383e-01  4.7549e-02 -13.5403 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 9.1152e-01  5.2096e-02  17.4969 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.3447e+00  8.6298e-02 -15.5825 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -6.1820e-01  9.5401e-02  -6.4800 2.021e-10 ***      
                idFrance                 7.6243e-01  7.4105e-02  10.2886 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                7.4873e-01  8.8892e-02   8.4229 3.131e-16 ***      
                idGreece                -9.9595e-01  3.7837e-02 -26.3224 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -1.6100e+00  9.7499e-02 -16.5127 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  3.8619e-02  6.8617e-02   0.5628 0.5737807          
                idJapan                  1.2309e+00  1.1301e-01  10.8925 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNetherlands           -6.8023e-01  3.2910e-02 -20.6696 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -9.3047e-01  9.0847e-02 -10.2421 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.1208e+00  3.8958e-02 -28.7700 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -4.0867e-02  5.7703e-02  -0.7082 0.4790947          
                idSweden                 8.1825e-02  6.5454e-02   1.2501 0.2117800          
                idSwitzerland           -1.0609e+00  8.0129e-02 -13.2396 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          3.5199e-01  7.2734e-02   4.8394 1.688e-06 ***      
                idUnitedStates           2.1930e+00  1.5521e-01  14.1290 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1990                -1.7690e+01  2.8926e+00  -6.1155 1.812e-09 ***      
                time1991                -1.7667e+01  2.8926e+00  -6.1076 1.899e-09 ***      
                time1992                -1.7649e+01  2.8923e+00  -6.1021 1.962e-09 ***      
                time1993                -1.7634e+01  2.8924e+00  -6.0966 2.025e-09 ***      
                time1994                -1.7618e+01  2.8927e+00  -6.0904 2.100e-09 ***      
                time1995                -1.7600e+01  2.8922e+00  -6.0855 2.161e-09 ***      
                time1996                -1.7597e+01  2.8916e+00  -6.0858 2.158e-09 ***      
                time1997                -1.7580e+01  2.8916e+00  -6.0796 2.238e-09 ***      
                time1998                -1.7571e+01  2.8913e+00  -6.0770 2.271e-09 ***      
                time1999                -1.7555e+01  2.8909e+00  -6.0723 2.335e-09 ***      
                time2000                -1.7576e+01  2.8903e+00  -6.0811 2.219e-09 ***      
                time2001                -1.7568e+01  2.8903e+00  -6.0782 2.256e-09 ***      
                time2002                -1.7555e+01  2.8902e+00  -6.0739 2.314e-09 ***      
                time2003                -1.7559e+01  2.8904e+00  -6.0747 2.302e-09 ***      
                time2004                -1.7547e+01  2.8896e+00  -6.0724 2.333e-09 ***      
                time2005                -1.7566e+01  2.8896e+00  -6.0791 2.245e-09 ***      
                time2006                -1.7562e+01  2.8894e+00  -6.0782 2.256e-09 ***      
                time2007                -1.7539e+01  2.8888e+00  -6.0713 2.349e-09 ***      
                time2008                -1.7547e+01  2.8889e+00  -6.0740 2.312e-09 ***      
                time2009                -1.7559e+01  2.8899e+00  -6.0761 2.283e-09 ***      
                time2010                -1.7544e+01  2.8897e+00  -6.0712 2.350e-09 ***      
                time2011                -1.7551e+01  2.8896e+00  -6.0739 2.314e-09 ***      
                time2012                -1.7561e+01  2.8899e+00  -6.0768 2.274e-09 ***      
                time2013                -1.7566e+01  2.8898e+00  -6.0785 2.252e-09 ***      
                time2014                -1.7590e+01  2.8897e+00  -6.0871 2.141e-09 ***      
                time2015                -1.7594e+01  2.8896e+00  -6.0888 2.121e-09 ***      
                time2016                -1.7589e+01  2.8895e+00  -6.0872 2.140e-09 ***      
                time2017                -1.7598e+01  2.8893e+00  -6.0907 2.097e-09 ***      
                time2018                -1.7617e+01  2.8894e+00  -6.0970 2.021e-09 ***      
                time2019                -1.7614e+01  2.8891e+00  -6.0968 2.024e-09 ***      
                time2020                -1.7606e+01  2.8904e+00  -6.0911 2.092e-09 ***      
                time2021                -1.7610e+01  2.8890e+00  -6.0955 2.039e-09 ***      
                iis113                  -2.2754e-01  4.2701e-02  -5.3286 1.439e-07 ***      
                iis176                   1.7279e-01  4.4058e-02   3.9220 9.879e-05 ***      
                iis179                   1.9470e-01  4.4048e-02   4.4202 1.186e-05 ***      
                iis181                   4.1232e-01  4.4191e-02   9.3306 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis182                   1.9872e-01  4.4143e-02   4.5018 8.209e-06 ***      
                iis183                   1.2137e-01  4.4074e-02   2.7538 0.0060826 **       
                iis188                   1.8379e-01  4.4072e-02   4.1702 3.529e-05 ***      
                iis191                   1.4185e-01  4.4112e-02   3.2156 0.0013771 **       
                fesisSwitzerland.2003   -1.1172e-01  1.5746e-02  -7.0950 3.948e-12 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2007       -6.2595e-02  2.3318e-02  -2.6844 0.0074831 **       
                fesisDenmark.2012       -1.6642e-01  2.3103e-02  -7.2032 1.919e-12 ***      
                fesisSpain.2000          1.8775e-01  2.4990e-02   7.5129 2.318e-13 ***      
                fesisSpain.2004          1.2923e-01  2.3529e-02   5.4925 6.033e-08 ***      
                fesisFinland.2009       -1.0562e-01  1.5941e-02  -6.6256 8.169e-11 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2012 -1.5825e-01  1.6516e-02  -9.5816 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2000         1.6604e-01  1.7340e-02   9.5756 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisItaly.2004          1.1718e-01  1.6299e-02   7.1893 2.105e-12 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2009    1.0435e-01  1.8027e-02   5.7884 1.187e-08 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2017    9.0862e-02  2.3958e-02   3.7925 0.0001655 ***      
                fesisPortugal.1998       1.7808e-01  2.1342e-02   8.3442 5.671e-16 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2006       6.9948e-02  2.1304e-02   3.2833 0.0010905 **       
                fesisPortugal.2014       1.3613e-01  2.1491e-02   6.3344 4.914e-10 ***      
                fesisSweden.1994        -1.1363e-01  2.5936e-02  -4.3812 1.411e-05 ***      
                fesisSweden.2002        -1.4900e-01  2.0268e-02  -7.3517 7.025e-13 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012         7.9527e-02  1.8981e-02   4.1899 3.245e-05 ***      
                fesisJapan.2000         -5.5173e-02  1.7286e-02  -3.1918 0.0014935 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   95.255  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.359  1 0.0002572 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.04088      
                R-squared           0.99914      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  1177.19304      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:43:50 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                         coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                8.3058e-01  1.9367e-02  42.8869 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb            2.3893e-01  1.7771e-01   1.3445 0.1793428          
                lpop              -8.5305e-01  6.4497e-01  -1.3226 0.1865160          
                lgdp_wb_sq         1.1551e-02  8.3928e-03   1.3763 0.1693028          
                hdd               -1.3463e-05  4.5145e-05  -0.2982 0.7656597          
                cdd               -5.8989e-05  6.5530e-05  -0.9002 0.3684189          
                idAustria         -2.1749e-01  2.5883e-02  -8.4028 3.793e-16 ***      
                idBelgium         -1.7195e-01  2.0790e-02  -8.2708 1.021e-15 ***      
                idCanada           1.6723e-01  2.1837e-02   7.6581 8.636e-14 ***      
                idDenmark         -3.9336e-01  3.3414e-02 -11.7722 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland         -1.7223e-01  2.3570e-02  -7.3070 9.750e-13 ***      
                idFrance           1.5089e-01  2.0107e-02   7.5042 2.526e-13 ***      
                idGermany          1.6038e-01  2.1836e-02   7.3449 7.539e-13 ***      
                idGreece          -2.4236e-01  2.9134e-02  -8.3188 7.133e-16 ***      
                idIreland         -3.6004e-01  4.3261e-02  -8.3226 6.933e-16 ***      
                idItaly            3.6048e-02  1.0257e-02   3.5144 0.0004774 ***      
                idJapan            2.5356e-01  3.1673e-02   8.0057 7.189e-15 ***      
                idNetherlands     -1.2945e-01  1.7542e-02  -7.3792 5.964e-13 ***      
                idNewZealand      -2.8712e-01  3.3645e-02  -8.5338 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal        -2.6939e-01  3.1960e-02  -8.4292 3.108e-16 ***      
                idSpain           -2.3750e-02  1.6401e-02  -1.4481 0.1481714          
                idSweden          -6.2055e-02  1.1169e-02  -5.5560 4.320e-08 ***      
                idSwitzerland     -2.1433e-01  2.5010e-02  -8.5698 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom    7.1324e-02  1.3507e-02   5.2807 1.861e-07 ***      
                idUnitedStates     4.8547e-01  5.6998e-02   8.5173 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991           3.0568e-01  2.3561e-01   1.2974 0.1950538          
                time1992           2.8842e-01  2.4707e-01   1.1674 0.2435700          
                time1993           2.8943e-01  2.3653e-01   1.2236 0.2216137          
                time1994           2.7579e-01  2.1332e-01   1.2929 0.1966022          
                time1995           2.6372e-01  2.0057e-01   1.3149 0.1891007          
                time1996           2.5807e-01  2.0671e-01   1.2485 0.2123961          
                time1997           2.3100e-01  1.8004e-01   1.2831 0.2000157          
                time1998           2.1740e-01  1.4490e-01   1.5004 0.1341018          
                time1999           1.8178e-01  1.2388e-01   1.4674 0.1428383          
                time2000           1.2876e-01  1.0792e-01   1.1931 0.2333326          
                time2001           1.3865e-01  9.5771e-02   1.4477 0.1482731          
                time2002           1.1075e-01  8.7790e-02   1.2615 0.2076584          
                time2003           1.1321e-01  8.7700e-02   1.2909 0.1972819          
                time2004           1.0052e-01  7.2864e-02   1.3795 0.1682946          
                time2005           7.4931e-02  5.0077e-02   1.4963 0.1351533          
                time2006           6.4030e-02  3.9525e-02   1.6200 0.1058087          
                time2007           6.5107e-02  3.8264e-02   1.7015 0.0894127 .        
                time2008           4.6913e-02  4.2430e-02   1.1056 0.2693656          
                time2009           6.5399e-02  6.9640e-02   0.9391 0.3480917          
                time2010           1.0457e-01  4.6358e-02   2.2557 0.0244820 *        
                time2011           3.0436e-02  3.7594e-02   0.8096 0.4185196          
                time2012           3.0727e-02  2.8624e-02   1.0734 0.2835436          
                time2013           1.8332e-02  2.9562e-02   0.6201 0.5354437          
                time2014          -8.5128e-03  2.5488e-02  -0.3340 0.7385171          
                time2015           1.8016e-02  1.6858e-02   1.0687 0.2856896          
                time2016           2.0759e-02  1.5713e-02   1.3212 0.1869924          
                iis88              1.3207e-01  4.2647e-02   3.0968 0.0020564 **       
                iis90             -1.8227e-01  4.2358e-02  -4.3029 1.998e-05 ***      
                iis91              1.7349e-01  4.2513e-02   4.0808 5.158e-05 ***      
                iis125             3.8417e-01  4.0211e-02   9.5539 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis127             1.7784e-01  3.9859e-02   4.4617 9.879e-06 ***      
                iis128             2.5579e-01  3.9710e-02   6.4415 2.597e-10 ***      
                iis130             4.6840e-01  3.9679e-02  11.8048 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis137             1.2576e-01  4.4916e-02   2.7999 0.0052922 **       
                iis140             2.8789e-01  3.9021e-02   7.3779 6.020e-13 ***      
                iis170            -3.0770e-01  5.2084e-02  -5.9078 6.105e-09 ***      
                iis459             1.4723e-01  3.7393e-02   3.9373 9.306e-05 ***      
                iis511            -1.1590e-01  3.7383e-02  -3.1003 0.0020330 **       
                fesisBelgium.2014 -1.0261e-01  2.7187e-02  -3.7741 0.0001781 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2016  1.3490e-01  3.3589e-02   4.0161 6.745e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2001  1.2329e-01  3.0279e-02   4.0719 5.354e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2004 -1.1531e-01  2.8994e-02  -3.9769 7.921e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2013  1.7387e-01  3.9214e-02   4.4340 1.119e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2014 -1.5601e-01  3.9207e-02  -3.9791 7.850e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2021  1.5168e-01  3.9282e-02   3.8614 0.0001263 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005  1.1101e-01  3.8108e-02   2.9130 0.0037267 **       
                fesisFinland.2007 -1.4737e-01  3.7981e-02  -3.8801 0.0001171 ***      
                fesisSpain.1997    5.6347e-02  1.7555e-02   3.2097 0.0014066 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    0.7741  1     0.379          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 28.7203  1 8.362e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.03574      
                R-squared           0.99933      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  1220.41038      

w. ETS price

AR = 0

                Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:59:46 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 339       
                Sample: 1 to 339       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                 -5.0239e-01  7.1316e-01 -0.7045 0.4817275          
                lpop                     3.5256e-01  1.3809e-01  2.5531 0.0112044 *        
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.5204e-02  1.3414e-02  1.1334 0.2580037          
                hdd                      1.9214e-05  1.5556e-05  1.2352 0.2178007          
                cdd                      1.2010e-04  4.8798e-05  2.4611 0.0144485 *        
                EU_ETS_05               -1.4226e-01  1.3852e-01 -1.0270 0.3052850          
                EU_ETS_08               -1.7847e-02  4.1312e-02 -0.4320 0.6660631          
                EU_ETS_13                2.1561e-02  3.6797e-02  0.5859 0.5583845          
                EU_ETS_05:ets_price      6.6540e-04  1.2528e-03  0.5311 0.5957572          
                EU_ETS_08:ets_price      1.2414e-03  2.9479e-03  0.4211 0.6740002          
                EU_ETS_13:ets_price     -1.7439e-03  2.7057e-03 -0.6446 0.5197422          
                idAustria               -3.8595e-01  2.5021e-01 -1.5425 0.1240683          
                idBelgium               -2.4971e-01  2.1862e-01 -1.1422 0.2543203          
                idCanada                 7.5964e-01  7.3440e-02 10.3436 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -7.2523e-01  3.0086e-01 -2.4106 0.0165680 *        
                idFinland               -1.0164e-03  3.0534e-01 -0.0033 0.9973464          
                idFrance                 4.4038e-01  2.1962e-02 20.0517 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                3.3625e-01  3.9246e-02  8.5680 7.006e-16 ***      
                idGreece                -5.1344e-01  2.1127e-01 -2.4303 0.0157105 *        
                idIreland               -8.5725e-01  3.2234e-01 -2.6595 0.0082744 **       
                idItaly                 -1.3039e-01  3.9993e-02 -3.2603 0.0012493 **       
                idJapan                  3.9619e-01  2.2431e-01  1.7662 0.0784384 .        
                idNetherlands           -3.4739e-01  1.6979e-01 -2.0460 0.0416855 *        
                idNewZealand            -4.3301e-01  1.9417e-01 -2.2301 0.0265305 *        
                idPortugal              -5.8840e-01  2.1124e-01 -2.7854 0.0057078 **       
                idSpain                  8.7224e-02  6.2344e-02  1.3991 0.1628864          
                idSweden                 3.1740e-01  2.4192e-01  1.3120 0.1905972          
                idSwitzerland           -6.9796e-01  1.4676e-01 -4.7559 3.157e-06 ***      
                idUnitedStates           8.7121e-01  3.7644e-01  2.3143 0.0213685 *        
                time2005                 1.6132e+00  9.3753e+00  0.1721 0.8635092          
                time2006                 1.6175e+00  9.3748e+00  0.1725 0.8631360          
                time2007                 1.6440e+00  9.3738e+00  0.1754 0.8609062          
                time2008                 1.6238e+00  9.3737e+00  0.1732 0.8625976          
                time2009                 1.6139e+00  9.3744e+00  0.1722 0.8634370          
                time2010                 1.6331e+00  9.3740e+00  0.1742 0.8618175          
                time2011                 1.6204e+00  9.3733e+00  0.1729 0.8628768          
                time2012                 1.6022e+00  9.3727e+00  0.1709 0.8643924          
                time2013                 1.5906e+00  9.3712e+00  0.1697 0.8653397          
                time2014                 1.5702e+00  9.3709e+00  0.1676 0.8670482          
                time2015                 1.5577e+00  9.3705e+00  0.1662 0.8680943          
                time2016                 1.5636e+00  9.3703e+00  0.1669 0.8675926          
                time2017                 1.5583e+00  9.3697e+00  0.1663 0.8680296          
                time2018                 1.5451e+00  9.3688e+00  0.1649 0.8691279          
                time2019                 1.5317e+00  9.3680e+00  0.1635 0.8702407          
                time2020                 1.5301e+00  9.3696e+00  0.1633 0.8703957          
                time2021                 1.5286e+00  9.3662e+00  0.1632 0.8704771          
                iis52                   -1.5872e-01  4.1689e-02 -3.8073 0.0001724 ***      
                iis53                   -2.0415e-01  4.1633e-02 -4.9037 1.591e-06 ***      
                iis56                   -1.4711e-01  4.1726e-02 -3.5255 0.0004930 ***      
                iis86                    1.9518e-01  4.3608e-02  4.4758 1.106e-05 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2019        1.0471e-01  2.6426e-02  3.9623 9.409e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2011       -9.7030e-02  2.6825e-02 -3.6171 0.0003529 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2015       -8.4317e-02  2.5189e-02 -3.3473 0.0009268 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2014 -1.4065e-01  2.0816e-02 -6.7566 8.082e-11 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2015    1.1267e-01  1.9980e-02  5.6390 4.153e-08 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2014       1.7507e-01  2.1077e-02  8.3063 4.183e-15 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012         8.9534e-02  2.0727e-02  4.3196 2.168e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   35.671  1 2.337e-09 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 18.110  1 2.085e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.03866      
                R-squared          0.99925      
                Log-lik.(n=339)  650.25049      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 18:00:05 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 319       
                Sample: 1 to 319       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                         coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                6.4486e-01  3.7554e-02 17.1715 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb           -3.5988e-01  3.0021e-01 -1.1988 0.2316559          
                lpop               4.0384e-01  5.6646e-01  0.7129 0.4764957          
                lgdp_wb_sq         5.3796e-03  4.9740e-03  1.0816 0.2803995          
                hdd                2.2345e-04  8.6885e-05  2.5718 0.0106441 *        
                cdd               -4.5284e-04  2.1649e-04 -2.0917 0.0373853 *        
                idAustria         -4.6392e-01  5.0215e-02 -9.2387 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium         -3.7394e-01  4.1827e-02 -8.9401 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada           3.3670e-01  3.8802e-02  8.6774 3.668e-16 ***      
                idDenmark         -7.3029e-01  7.4400e-02 -9.8157 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland         -4.3809e-01  4.6702e-02 -9.3805 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance           2.9695e-01  3.5310e-02  8.4097 2.286e-15 ***      
                idGermany          3.2984e-01  3.8706e-02  8.5217 1.068e-15 ***      
                idGreece          -5.2353e-01  5.5641e-02 -9.4091 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland         -7.4955e-01  8.0740e-02 -9.2835 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly            6.4836e-02  1.5844e-02  4.0922 5.625e-05 ***      
                idJapan            5.0869e-01  5.6856e-02  8.9469 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNetherlands     -2.6873e-01  3.1861e-02 -8.4343 1.935e-15 ***      
                idNewZealand      -6.1041e-01  6.5746e-02 -9.2843 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal        -5.5808e-01  5.9263e-02 -9.4171 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain            5.2964e-02  1.5291e-02  3.4638 0.0006179 ***      
                idSweden          -2.1234e-01  2.8022e-02 -7.5776 5.445e-13 ***      
                idSwitzerland     -4.6351e-01  5.0875e-02 -9.1109 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom    1.2019e-01  2.0514e-02  5.8591 1.332e-08 ***      
                idUnitedStates     1.0049e+00  1.0783e-01  9.3195 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time2006           9.4167e-02  3.8279e-02  2.4600 0.0145121 *        
                time2007           3.3895e-02  2.1111e-02  1.6056 0.1095192          
                time2008          -2.1610e-02  2.7985e-02 -0.7722 0.4406510          
                time2009          -6.0965e-02  5.0050e-02 -1.2181 0.2242461          
                time2010           1.0554e-01  3.6336e-02  2.9046 0.0039770 **       
                time2011           4.8698e-03  2.3412e-02  0.2080 0.8353796          
                time2012           8.3862e-02  3.8958e-02  2.1526 0.0322228 *        
                time2013          -3.4936e-02  2.2528e-02 -1.5508 0.1220996          
                time2014          -1.0260e-01  3.6085e-02 -2.8432 0.0048025 **       
                time2015           3.9863e-03  1.3338e-02  0.2989 0.7652718          
                time2016           6.9339e-02  2.7734e-02  2.5001 0.0130005 *        
                iis45             -2.1042e-01  4.4305e-02 -4.7494 3.294e-06 ***      
                iis46              1.1803e-01  4.4582e-02  2.6475 0.0085787 **       
                iis65              2.8222e-01  4.1219e-02  6.8468 4.951e-11 ***      
                iis72              1.3122e-01  4.1173e-02  3.1870 0.0016041 **       
                iis81              1.4947e-01  4.0993e-02  3.6463 0.0003183 ***      
                iis234             1.4432e-01  4.0955e-02  3.5239 0.0004982 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2014 -1.1588e-01  3.1543e-02 -3.6737 0.0002875 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2016  1.7993e-01  3.4440e-02  5.2244 3.464e-07 ***      
                fesisSweden.2010   7.8974e-02  2.3003e-02  3.4332 0.0006886 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df p-value        
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   0.10962  1 0.74058        
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 3.70890  1 0.05412 .      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.03862      
                R-squared          0.99922      
                Log-lik.(n=319)  607.91842      

Imports Elec Twh

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Tue Dec 20 11:39:03 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  9.0171e+00  1.2440e+00  7.2483 1.416e-12 ***      
                lpop                    -1.0183e+00  3.7967e-01 -2.6821 0.0075335 **       
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.6410e-01  2.4503e-02 -6.6973 5.201e-11 ***      
                hdd                     -4.6650e-05  5.0057e-05 -0.9319 0.3517689          
                cdd                     -2.2199e-04  1.4574e-04 -1.5232 0.1282700          
                idAustria                1.7479e+00  2.7706e-01  6.3089 5.732e-10 ***      
                idBelgium                1.7608e+00  1.9819e-01  8.8845 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 3.4633e+00  2.8836e-01 12.0103 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark                1.1595e+00  3.9379e-01  2.9446 0.0033690 **       
                idFinland                1.4675e+00  4.1757e-01  3.5143 0.0004767 ***      
                idFrance                 2.9126e+00  3.7556e-01  7.7554 4.219e-14 ***      
                idGermany                5.2590e+00  4.5660e-01 11.5177 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                 8.8820e-01  1.6124e-01  5.5086 5.533e-08 ***      
                idIreland               -9.1886e-01  4.4926e-01 -2.0453 0.0412959 *        
                idItaly                  4.9271e+00  3.5246e-01 13.9793 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idJapan                  2.3526e+00  5.6839e-01  4.1390 4.029e-05 ***      
                idNetherlands            2.4866e+00  1.3309e-01 18.6839 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -1.0219e+00  4.4430e-01 -2.3000 0.0218173 *        
                idPortugal               1.2510e+00  1.7068e-01  7.3296 8.164e-13 ***      
                idSpain                  2.5702e+00  2.9634e-01  8.6731 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSweden                 1.7603e+00  2.7193e-01  6.4733 2.106e-10 ***      
                idSwitzerland            2.1164e+00  3.4641e-01  6.1095 1.878e-09 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          4.0320e+00  3.6741e-01 10.9743 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedStates           7.6027e+00  7.7786e-01  9.7739 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1990                -1.0673e+02  1.7951e+01 -5.9457 4.861e-09 ***      
                time1991                -1.0683e+02  1.7953e+01 -5.9505 4.730e-09 ***      
                time1992                -1.0675e+02  1.7953e+01 -5.9460 4.852e-09 ***      
                time1993                -1.0674e+02  1.7953e+01 -5.9455 4.868e-09 ***      
                time1994                -1.0674e+02  1.7953e+01 -5.9456 4.864e-09 ***      
                time1995                -1.0667e+02  1.7951e+01 -5.9422 4.960e-09 ***      
                time1996                -1.0660e+02  1.7948e+01 -5.9395 5.037e-09 ***      
                time1997                -1.0659e+02  1.7947e+01 -5.9390 5.053e-09 ***      
                time1998                -1.0664e+02  1.7946e+01 -5.9420 4.965e-09 ***      
                time1999                -1.0655e+02  1.7944e+01 -5.9379 5.085e-09 ***      
                time2000                -1.0647e+02  1.7941e+01 -5.9344 5.188e-09 ***      
                time2001                -1.0645e+02  1.7941e+01 -5.9334 5.217e-09 ***      
                time2002                -1.0631e+02  1.7939e+01 -5.9261 5.438e-09 ***      
                time2003                -1.0621e+02  1.7939e+01 -5.9206 5.612e-09 ***      
                time2004                -1.0622e+02  1.7937e+01 -5.9217 5.579e-09 ***      
                time2005                -1.0608e+02  1.7936e+01 -5.9143 5.819e-09 ***      
                time2006                -1.0611e+02  1.7934e+01 -5.9165 5.748e-09 ***      
                time2007                -1.0615e+02  1.7935e+01 -5.9185 5.680e-09 ***      
                time2008                -1.0618e+02  1.7936e+01 -5.9197 5.641e-09 ***      
                time2009                -1.0629e+02  1.7941e+01 -5.9241 5.500e-09 ***      
                time2010                -1.0627e+02  1.7940e+01 -5.9236 5.518e-09 ***      
                time2011                -1.0619e+02  1.7939e+01 -5.9196 5.644e-09 ***      
                time2012                -1.0605e+02  1.7942e+01 -5.9109 5.932e-09 ***      
                time2013                -1.0606e+02  1.7942e+01 -5.9111 5.926e-09 ***      
                time2014                -1.0601e+02  1.7941e+01 -5.9085 6.014e-09 ***      
                time2015                -1.0602e+02  1.7940e+01 -5.9097 5.975e-09 ***      
                time2016                -1.0609e+02  1.7939e+01 -5.9136 5.842e-09 ***      
                time2017                -1.0608e+02  1.7938e+01 -5.9137 5.839e-09 ***      
                time2018                -1.0603e+02  1.7937e+01 -5.9111 5.927e-09 ***      
                time2019                -1.0603e+02  1.7936e+01 -5.9118 5.902e-09 ***      
                time2020                -1.0605e+02  1.7943e+01 -5.9105 5.946e-09 ***      
                time2021                -1.0598e+02  1.7937e+01 -5.9087 6.007e-09 ***      
                iis30                   -6.6224e-01  1.8213e-01 -3.6360 0.0003026 ***      
                iis281                   7.2560e-01  1.8336e-01  3.9573 8.562e-05 ***      
                iis282                   7.7958e-01  1.8334e-01  4.2522 2.482e-05 ***      
                iis304                  -5.9304e-01  1.7918e-01 -3.3096 0.0009946 ***      
                fesisCanada.1991        -8.1517e-01  1.8363e-01 -4.4393 1.089e-05 ***      
                fesisCanada.1998         6.0593e-01  8.2494e-02  7.3451 7.347e-13 ***      
                fesisCanada.2012        -5.7238e-01  7.4145e-02 -7.7197 5.433e-14 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2007   4.6110e-01  8.6953e-02  5.3029 1.646e-07 ***      
                fesisAustria.2009        2.8507e-01  6.3685e-02  4.4763 9.216e-06 ***      
                fesisGermany.2012       -3.8638e-01  7.6058e-02 -5.0800 5.157e-07 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1994       -7.1194e-01  1.1110e-01 -6.4082 3.138e-10 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2000        3.4846e-01  9.3684e-02  3.7195 0.0002198 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2008        3.0137e-01  7.7085e-02  3.9095 0.0001039 ***      
                fesisSpain.1998          5.5722e-01  9.8588e-02  5.6520 2.534e-08 ***      
                fesisSpain.2003         -4.5989e-01  9.3764e-02 -4.9048 1.229e-06 ***      
                fesisSpain.2015          7.3372e-01  8.2242e-02  8.9215 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisFrance.2007         3.6202e-01  8.0341e-02  4.5061 8.051e-06 ***      
                fesisFrance.2016         5.7032e-01  9.6121e-02  5.9334 5.216e-09 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2001 -7.4506e-01  7.7734e-02 -9.5847 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2013  7.2154e-01  7.8768e-02  9.1603 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2001         2.7839e-01  8.4485e-02  3.2952 0.0010462 **       
                fesisGreece.2008         3.8239e-01  8.4210e-02  4.5408 6.872e-06 ***      
                fesisItaly.2004         -3.0810e-01  6.6368e-02 -4.6423 4.302e-06 ***      
                fesisSweden.2011        -4.3127e-01  6.5891e-02 -6.5452 1.350e-10 ***      
                fesisJapan.2002         -4.3391e-01  6.7890e-02 -6.3913 3.479e-10 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2000     -2.8205e-01  7.6714e-02 -3.6767 0.0002592 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.2002    -6.2090e-01  7.5398e-02 -8.2350 1.284e-15 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   62.833  1 2.220e-15 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 44.504  1 2.538e-11 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.16694      
                R-squared          0.98448      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  279.07377      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Tue Dec 20 11:38:46 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                        coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1               7.3710e-01  2.3282e-02 31.6593 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb          -1.1072e-03  7.1813e-01 -0.0015 0.9987704          
                lpop             -1.1533e+00  2.6201e+00 -0.4402 0.6599729          
                lgdp_wb_sq        2.4781e-02  3.4150e-02  0.7256 0.4683685          
                hdd               1.5262e-04  1.8242e-04  0.8367 0.4031488          
                cdd              -1.3211e-04  2.6108e-04 -0.5060 0.6130550          
                idAustria         7.8944e-01  7.6260e-02 10.3519 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium         7.1420e-01  7.1082e-02 10.0476 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada          6.7124e-01  7.1863e-02  9.3405 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark         6.7974e-01  6.5531e-02 10.3728 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland         7.4595e-01  7.3168e-02 10.1950 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance          4.4393e-01  6.7769e-02  6.5506 1.320e-10 ***      
                idGermany         9.9135e-01  9.4259e-02 10.5172 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece          3.2160e-01  6.1876e-02  5.1976 2.852e-07 ***      
                idIreland         1.6170e-01  4.0074e-02  4.0350 6.234e-05 ***      
                idItaly           1.0078e+00  9.6165e-02 10.4799 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idJapan          -5.8202e-15  3.7623e-02  0.0000 1.0000000          
                idNetherlands     8.0737e-01  7.8986e-02 10.2216 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand     -5.7888e-15  3.7623e-02  0.0000 1.0000000          
                idPortugal        5.2895e-01  5.7126e-02  9.2595 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain           6.5318e-01  6.5509e-02  9.9709 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSweden          5.1600e-01  8.3881e-02  6.1516 1.479e-09 ***      
                idSwitzerland     8.8933e-01  8.6247e-02 10.3114 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom   7.7361e-01  7.3826e-02 10.4789 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedStates    1.0465e+00  9.7813e-02 10.6984 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991          3.8986e-01  9.5805e-01  0.4069 0.6842174          
                time1992          4.0460e-01  1.0040e+00  0.4030 0.6871259          
                time1993          3.4627e-01  9.6135e-01  0.3602 0.7188462          
                time1994          3.2015e-01  8.6710e-01  0.3692 0.7121110          
                time1995          3.7053e-01  8.1550e-01  0.4544 0.6497527          
                time1996          3.0162e-01  8.3999e-01  0.3591 0.7196720          
                time1997          2.8401e-01  7.3180e-01  0.3881 0.6980944          
                time1998          3.0193e-01  5.8965e-01  0.5120 0.6088288          
                time1999          3.2299e-01  5.0400e-01  0.6409 0.5218778          
                time2000          1.9624e-01  4.3862e-01  0.4474 0.6547594          
                time2001          1.6736e-01  3.8954e-01  0.4296 0.6676419          
                time2002          1.8752e-01  3.5709e-01  0.5251 0.5996952          
                time2003          9.0590e-02  3.5654e-01  0.2541 0.7995261          
                time2004          1.0135e-01  2.9602e-01  0.3424 0.7322065          
                time2005          2.2425e-01  2.0383e-01  1.1002 0.2717373          
                time2006          1.2394e-01  1.6064e-01  0.7715 0.4407160          
                time2007          6.1958e-02  1.5570e-01  0.3979 0.6908395          
                time2008          3.6548e-02  1.7234e-01  0.2121 0.8321326          
                time2009          1.2103e-02  2.8300e-01  0.0428 0.9659024          
                time2010          9.7669e-02  1.8882e-01  0.5173 0.6051742          
                time2011          9.7411e-02  1.5322e-01  0.6358 0.5251855          
                time2012          1.5164e-01  1.1672e-01  1.2992 0.1944285          
                time2013          7.6228e-03  1.2017e-01  0.0634 0.9494439          
                time2014          3.0075e-02  1.0298e-01  0.2920 0.7703712          
                time2015          3.9214e-02  6.8721e-02  0.5706 0.5684899          
                time2016         -1.0652e-02  6.3901e-02 -0.1667 0.8676643          
                iis94            -7.5268e-01  1.5577e-01 -4.8320 1.757e-06 ***      
                iis101            5.8820e-01  1.5471e-01  3.8019 0.0001597 ***      
                iis106            5.0110e-01  1.5510e-01  3.2308 0.0013083 **       
                iis125           -1.0429e+00  1.5581e-01 -6.6933 5.399e-11 ***      
                iis126            6.1354e-01  1.5518e-01  3.9537 8.702e-05 ***      
                iis128           -1.0285e+00  1.5482e-01 -6.6433 7.400e-11 ***      
                iis140           -5.8374e-01  1.5485e-01 -3.7697 0.0001811 ***      
                iis161           -5.1545e-01  1.5477e-01 -3.3303 0.0009257 ***      
                iis205            5.2471e-01  1.5686e-01  3.3450 0.0008790 ***      
                iis207           -6.1447e-01  1.5738e-01 -3.9043 0.0001063 ***      
                iis212            6.1638e-01  1.5673e-01  3.9328 9.474e-05 ***      
                iis302            6.9161e-01  1.5454e-01  4.4753 9.280e-06 ***      
                iis502            7.5303e-01  1.6048e-01  4.6924 3.414e-06 ***      
                iis506            7.7418e-01  1.6036e-01  4.8279 1.792e-06 ***      
                iis571           -6.4770e-01  1.5517e-01 -4.1741 3.478e-05 ***      
                iis577           -5.8959e-01  1.5493e-01 -3.8054 0.0001575 ***      
                fesisFrance.2003  2.4847e-01  5.9018e-02  4.2101 2.983e-05 ***      
                fesisGreece.2001  2.4160e-01  6.0517e-02  3.9924 7.431e-05 ***      
                fesisSweden.2002  5.7678e-01  1.1908e-01  4.8437 1.660e-06 ***      
                fesisSweden.2004 -4.7686e-01  1.1366e-01 -4.1955 3.175e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                    Chi-sq df p-value        
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   0.058148  1 0.80945        
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 6.527252  1 0.01062 *      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.14812      
                R-squared          0.98758      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  339.78790      

w. ETS price

AR = 0

                Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Tue Dec 20 11:40:56 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 340       
                Sample: 1 to 340       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  2.0054e+00  3.4892e+00  0.5747 0.5659286          
                lpop                    -7.8933e-01  5.4192e-01 -1.4565 0.1463502          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -3.4027e-02  6.6045e-02 -0.5152 0.6068086          
                hdd                      3.0098e-05  5.9492e-05  0.5059 0.6133119          
                cdd                     -1.8183e-04  1.8682e-04 -0.9733 0.3312533          
                EU_ETS_05                2.9362e+00  5.3826e-01  5.4550 1.069e-07 ***      
                EU_ETS_08                2.1491e-01  1.6172e-01  1.3289 0.1849510          
                EU_ETS_13               -9.3959e-02  1.4202e-01 -0.6616 0.5087634          
                EU_ETS_05:ets_price      2.7179e-03  4.7789e-03  0.5687 0.5699851          
                EU_ETS_08:ets_price     -2.3893e-02  1.1478e-02 -2.0816 0.0382782 *        
                EU_ETS_13:ets_price      2.2195e-02  1.0516e-02  2.1106 0.0356802 *        
                idAustria               -5.5632e-01  9.7095e-01 -0.5730 0.5671263          
                idBelgium               -7.7643e-01  8.4805e-01 -0.9155 0.3606889          
                idCanada                 3.1632e+00  2.8618e-01 11.0529 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.3725e+00  1.1630e+00 -1.1801 0.2389573          
                idFinland               -1.0985e+00  1.1799e+00 -0.9310 0.3526290          
                idFrance                 2.7331e-02  1.1323e-01  0.2414 0.8094362          
                idGermany                1.7210e+00  1.6233e-01 10.6020 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                -1.0757e+00  8.2412e-01 -1.3053 0.1928438          
                idIreland               -3.2839e+00  1.2482e+00 -2.6309 0.0089832 **       
                idItaly                  1.5111e+00  1.6247e-01  9.3010 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idJapan                  1.2231e+00  8.7740e-01  1.3940 0.1644092          
                idNetherlands           -1.3570e-01  6.6127e-01 -0.2052 0.8375592          
                idNewZealand            -1.0592e+00  7.4577e-01 -1.4202 0.1566391          
                idPortugal              -1.0746e+00  8.2393e-01 -1.3043 0.1931998          
                idSpain                 -2.0781e-01  2.6235e-01 -0.7921 0.4289529          
                idSweden                -9.2285e-01  9.3798e-01 -0.9839 0.3260213          
                idSwitzerland            2.5706e+00  5.6313e-01  4.5649 7.460e-06 ***      
                idUnitedStates           5.8932e+00  1.5114e+00  3.8993 0.0001206 ***      
                time2005                -1.6002e+01  4.6432e+01 -0.3446 0.7306197          
                time2006                -1.5994e+01  4.6429e+01 -0.3445 0.7307365          
                time2007                -1.5990e+01  4.6424e+01 -0.3444 0.7307685          
                time2008                -1.5882e+01  4.6422e+01 -0.3421 0.7325151          
                time2009                -1.6048e+01  4.6430e+01 -0.3456 0.7298769          
                time2010                -1.6036e+01  4.6426e+01 -0.3454 0.7300448          
                time2011                -1.5950e+01  4.6425e+01 -0.3436 0.7314230          
                time2012                -1.5952e+01  4.6430e+01 -0.3436 0.7314150          
                time2013                -1.5985e+01  4.6424e+01 -0.3443 0.7308506          
                time2014                -1.5913e+01  4.6421e+01 -0.3428 0.7320054          
                time2015                -1.5917e+01  4.6419e+01 -0.3429 0.7319268          
                time2016                -1.5987e+01  4.6417e+01 -0.3444 0.7307876          
                time2017                -1.5983e+01  4.6414e+01 -0.3443 0.7308420          
                time2018                -1.5941e+01  4.6410e+01 -0.3435 0.7314918          
                time2019                -1.5955e+01  4.6407e+01 -0.3438 0.7312520          
                time2020                -1.5948e+01  4.6415e+01 -0.3436 0.7314129          
                time2021                -1.5924e+01  4.6404e+01 -0.3432 0.7317397          
                iis86                   -6.1865e-01  1.5707e-01 -3.9388 0.0001032 ***      
                fesisCanada.2011        -5.2262e-01  8.4218e-02 -6.2055 1.932e-09 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2012   2.9598e-01  1.0117e-01  2.9255 0.0037181 **       
                fesisGermany.2013       -3.9119e-01  8.5140e-02 -4.5947 6.533e-06 ***      
                fesisSpain.2015          6.7444e-01  7.6891e-02  8.7714 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisFrance.2009         7.9458e-01  1.3169e-01  6.0339 5.000e-09 ***      
                fesisFrance.2011        -8.1825e-01  1.2808e-01 -6.3885 6.862e-10 ***      
                fesisFrance.2016         5.4607e-01  9.3700e-02  5.8279 1.526e-08 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2013  6.2441e-01  8.2612e-02  7.5583 5.704e-13 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2015      -3.5991e-01  8.1959e-02 -4.3914 1.593e-05 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012        -3.8564e-01  7.9029e-02 -4.8797 1.777e-06 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   16.882  1 3.977e-05 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 20.653  1 5.505e-06 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.14745      
                R-squared          0.98826      
                Log-lik.(n=340)  196.91353      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13 + EU_ETS_05:ets_price + EU_ETS_08:ets_price + EU_ETS_13:ets_price      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Tue Dec 20 11:40:50 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 320       
                Sample: 1 to 320       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      5.9835e-01  4.1093e-02 14.5610 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  4.6633e-02  1.0188e+00  0.0458 0.9635255          
                lpop                    -1.3652e+00  1.9130e+00 -0.7136 0.4760667          
                lgdp_wb_sq               2.6930e-02  1.6472e-02  1.6349 0.1032356          
                hdd                      3.1884e-04  2.9505e-04  1.0807 0.2808131          
                cdd                     -2.8898e-04  7.3633e-04 -0.3925 0.6950307          
                idAustria                1.3071e+00  1.4020e-01  9.3231 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium                1.1644e+00  1.2487e-01  9.3254 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 1.2594e+00  1.4497e-01  8.6869 3.584e-16 ***      
                idDenmark                1.1252e+00  1.1844e-01  9.5002 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland                1.2178e+00  1.3135e-01  9.2714 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                 1.1658e+00  1.1856e-01  9.8328 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.4954e+00  1.6058e-01  9.3121 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                 8.9464e-01  1.0136e-01  8.8260 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland                3.2059e-01  6.0371e-02  5.3103 2.283e-07 ***      
                idItaly                  1.5400e+00  1.6485e-01  9.3421 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idJapan                 -1.3588e-14  4.6887e-02  0.0000 1.0000000          
                idNetherlands            1.2851e+00  1.4031e-01  9.1586 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -1.3528e-14  4.6887e-02  0.0000 1.0000000          
                idPortugal               8.9149e-01  1.0052e-01  8.8691 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                  8.4465e-01  1.0874e-01  7.7677 1.655e-13 ***      
                idSweden                 1.0248e+00  1.1784e-01  8.6960 3.367e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland            1.3972e+00  1.5160e-01  9.2165 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          9.8967e-01  1.2206e-01  8.1081 1.788e-14 ***      
                idUnitedStates           1.6452e+00  1.7366e-01  9.4737 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time2006                 1.7852e-01  1.2851e-01  1.3891 0.1659372          
                time2007                 5.2431e-02  7.1364e-02  0.7347 0.4631569          
                time2008                 9.6440e-03  9.5266e-02  0.1012 0.9194405          
                time2009                 7.3606e-03  1.7043e-01  0.0432 0.9655828          
                time2010                 1.2985e-01  1.2191e-01  1.0651 0.2877572          
                time2011                 9.4861e-02  7.9523e-02  1.1929 0.2339663          
                time2012                 2.0119e-01  1.3148e-01  1.5303 0.1271158          
                time2013                -2.0325e-02  7.6733e-02 -0.2649 0.7913080          
                time2014                -4.0104e-03  1.2309e-01 -0.0326 0.9740328          
                time2015                 4.1511e-02  4.4991e-02  0.9226 0.3570148          
                time2016                 5.9731e-02  9.3792e-02  0.6368 0.5247621          
                iis36                   -4.7919e-01  1.4110e-01 -3.3962 0.0007856 ***      
                iis65                   -6.3978e-01  1.4063e-01 -4.5495 8.122e-06 ***      
                iis100                   4.0121e-01  1.4262e-01  2.8132 0.0052648 **       
                iis102                  -6.2843e-01  1.4395e-01 -4.3655 1.806e-05 ***      
                iis105                  -5.7958e-01  1.4216e-01 -4.0770 6.001e-05 ***      
                iis107                   4.7705e-01  1.4282e-01  3.3402 0.0009549 ***      
                iis109                  -3.9533e-01  1.4362e-01 -2.7526 0.0063125 **       
                iis152                   6.5656e-01  1.4113e-01  4.6521 5.144e-06 ***      
                iis235                  -4.5006e-01  1.4076e-01 -3.1974 0.0015510 **       
                iis292                  -4.3858e-01  1.5298e-01 -2.8670 0.0044692 **       
                fesisCanada.2011        -2.8451e-01  7.7312e-02 -3.6800 0.0002814 ***      
                fesisSpain.2013          3.5647e-01  7.2874e-02  4.8915 1.718e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2011  2.7527e-01  8.2727e-02  3.3275 0.0009977 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df p-value      
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   2.0231  1  0.1549      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 2.2389  1  0.1346      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.13262      
                R-squared          0.99036      
                Log-lik.(n=320)  216.93145      

Model Overview

Note: Countries in which no break was detected are excluded from these overview plots.

by country

Elec Demand Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Emissions
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Exports Elec Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Generation
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Imports Elec Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

by model

Elec Demand Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Emissions
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Exports Elec Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Generation
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Imports Elec Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

by outcome variable

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Netherlands

NewZealand

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Emissions: Growth Rates

Note: As Moritz mentioned, when looking at growth rates what we understand as “breaks” are represented by the grey impulse lines. I have therefore excluded the plots analogous to the right-hand ones above.

Pop w. Temp

AR = 0

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:21:08 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lpop               -0.90533863  0.95376417 -0.9492 0.3429075          
                g.cdd                 0.00028133  0.00017097  1.6455 0.1004169          
                g.hdd                 0.12252549  0.04116742  2.9763 0.0030415 **       
                idAustria            -0.01073367  0.02302561 -0.4662 0.6412774          
                idBelgium            -0.02998070  0.02310896 -1.2974 0.1950314          
                idCanada             -0.02086813  0.02180256 -0.9571 0.3389017          
                idDenmark            -0.09020868  0.02385207 -3.7820 0.0001720 ***      
                idFinland            -0.02855049  0.02407204 -1.1860 0.2360991          
                idFrance             -0.03896398  0.02329040 -1.6730 0.0948833 .        
                idGermany            -0.03627101  0.02430831 -1.4921 0.1362199          
                idGreece             -0.03471279  0.02428933 -1.4291 0.1535126          
                idIreland            -0.01299665  0.02173241 -0.5980 0.5500569          
                idItaly              -0.02645550  0.02448240 -1.0806 0.2803353          
                idJapan              -0.00702265  0.02477142 -0.2835 0.7768981          
                idNetherlands        -0.01544810  0.02298083 -0.6722 0.5017180          
                idNewZealand          0.10243995  0.05415550  1.8916 0.0590525 .        
                idPortugal            0.01099978  0.02586395  0.4253 0.6707830          
                idSpain              -0.02495528  0.02268003 -1.1003 0.2716574          
                idSweden             -0.02601557  0.02324620 -1.1191 0.2635552          
                idSwitzerland        -0.00154799  0.02233260 -0.0693 0.9447631          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.04981095  0.02299384 -2.1663 0.0307040 *        
                idUnitedStates       -0.01528634  0.02217785 -0.6893 0.4909390          
                time1990              0.05368508  0.02823090  1.9016 0.0577218 .        
                time1991              0.05812765  0.02966127  1.9597 0.0505159 .        
                time1992              0.02773355  0.02789401  0.9942 0.3205243          
                time1993             -0.01039867  0.02777209 -0.3744 0.7082245          
                time1994              0.07172515  0.02773034  2.5865 0.0099417 **       
                time1995              0.05686362  0.02744656  2.0718 0.0387338 *        
                time1996              0.02846453  0.02887134  0.9859 0.3245957          
                time1997              0.05096840  0.02825980  1.8036 0.0718273 .        
                time1998              0.04774865  0.02740134  1.7426 0.0819487 .        
                time1999              0.02928285  0.02713899  1.0790 0.2810461          
                time2000              0.02974041  0.02730987  1.0890 0.2766146          
                time2001              0.05773830  0.02768966  2.0852 0.0374961 *        
                time2002              0.06630316  0.02815264  2.3551 0.0188542 *        
                time2003              0.06157562  0.02818913  2.1844 0.0293415 *        
                time2004              0.02016106  0.02796311  0.7210 0.4712125          
                time2005              0.05233823  0.02836012  1.8455 0.0654852 .        
                time2006              0.00222078  0.02899065  0.0766 0.9389661          
                time2007              0.01749210  0.02822660  0.6197 0.5357011          
                time2008             -0.02130615  0.02844680 -0.7490 0.4541768          
                time2009             -0.04044691  0.02795370 -1.4469 0.1484677          
                time2010              0.05920640  0.02823350  2.0970 0.0364312 *        
                time2011             -0.00916574  0.02744043 -0.3340 0.7384850          
                time2012              0.00921377  0.02721380  0.3386 0.7350584          
                time2013             -0.02587488  0.02715143 -0.9530 0.3410019          
                time2014             -0.03780266  0.02798362 -1.3509 0.1772682          
                time2015              0.01736922  0.02768958  0.6273 0.5307244          
                time2016              0.00658984  0.02790066  0.2362 0.8133706          
                time2017              0.03076168  0.02771050  1.1101 0.2674201          
                time2018             -0.02781225  0.02809929 -0.9898 0.3226992          
                time2019             -0.05575433  0.02737757 -2.0365 0.0421622 *        
                time2020             -0.06392990  0.02759089 -2.3171 0.0208536 *        
                time2021              0.06761726  0.02654022  2.5477 0.0111041 *        
                iis116                1.12093686  0.09043222 12.3953 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis175                0.31433259  0.09047467  3.4743 0.0005512 ***      
                iis180                0.38643078  0.09070834  4.2601 2.390e-05 ***      
                iis190                0.39993832  0.09048860  4.4198 1.183e-05 ***      
                iis247               -0.41879794  0.09032776 -4.6364 4.399e-06 ***      
                iis248                0.42778968  0.09046177  4.7290 2.848e-06 ***      
                iis269                0.31659524  0.09027979  3.5068 0.0004892 ***      
                iis441               -0.32787487  0.09188391 -3.5684 0.0003895 ***      
                iis455               -0.36331274  0.09050490 -4.0143 6.759e-05 ***      
                iis470                0.36502163  0.09079147  4.0204 6.590e-05 ***      
                iis471               -0.31302604  0.09050539 -3.4586 0.0005834 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2018   -0.20759469  0.04772430 -4.3499 1.614e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.26438331  0.07328255 -3.6077 0.0003360 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.44859967  0.08133895  5.5152 5.290e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29360888  0.06560856 -4.4752 9.222e-06 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   20.761  1 5.202e-06 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.777  1 1.361e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08656      
                R-squared          0.50863      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  691.38859      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:21:12 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                       coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lpop          -0.79574897  1.04217838 -0.7635  0.445449          
                g.cdd            0.00027994  0.00018983  1.4747  0.140831          
                g.hdd            0.11236440  0.04518756  2.4866  0.013176 *        
                idAustria       -0.00988618  0.02554960 -0.3869  0.698942          
                idBelgium       -0.02907573  0.02563995 -1.1340  0.257262          
                idCanada        -0.02071310  0.02423490 -0.8547  0.393080          
                idDenmark       -0.05483462  0.02591237 -2.1162  0.034756 *        
                idFinland       -0.02679293  0.02670161 -1.0034  0.316076          
                idFrance        -0.02815616  0.02565060 -1.0977  0.272799          
                idGermany       -0.03503732  0.02693098 -1.3010  0.193773          
                idGreece        -0.03350629  0.02690981 -1.2451  0.213585          
                idIreland       -0.01285978  0.02416010 -0.5323  0.594740          
                idItaly         -0.02519850  0.02711791 -0.9292  0.353161          
                idJapan         -0.00577374  0.02742694 -0.2105  0.833341          
                idNetherlands   -0.01457726  0.02550234 -0.5716  0.567811          
                idNewZealand    -0.00487182  0.02427266 -0.2007  0.840994          
                idPortugal      -0.03512806  0.02731987 -1.2858  0.199023          
                idSpain         -0.02417859  0.02517901 -0.9603  0.337320          
                idSweden        -0.02364141  0.02547406 -0.9281  0.353763          
                idSwitzerland   -0.00086497  0.02480814 -0.0349  0.972198          
                idUnitedKingdom -0.04898199  0.02551580 -1.9197  0.055389 .        
                idUnitedStates  -0.01476077  0.02464169 -0.5990  0.549395          
                time1990         0.05847220  0.03134188  1.8656  0.062598 .        
                time1991         0.07891120  0.03242927  2.4333  0.015261 *        
                time1992         0.03131562  0.03097529  1.0110  0.312443          
                time1993        -0.01934517  0.03061643 -0.6319  0.527730          
                time1994         0.06181496  0.03063024  2.0181  0.044040 *        
                time1995         0.04788610  0.03027046  1.5819  0.114207          
                time1996         0.06415710  0.03065572  2.0928  0.036798 *        
                time1997         0.02832226  0.03110236  0.9106  0.362876          
                time1998         0.06215034  0.02995482  2.0748  0.038444 *        
                time1999         0.02785867  0.03005264  0.9270  0.354314          
                time2000         0.02819983  0.03023738  0.9326  0.351406          
                time2001         0.05677427  0.03062275  1.8540  0.064247 .        
                time2002         0.06415472  0.03116097  2.0588  0.039957 *        
                time2003         0.06074447  0.03115252  1.9499  0.051668 .        
                time2004         0.01853889  0.03093729  0.5992  0.549246          
                time2005         0.05067045  0.03137838  1.6148  0.106893          
                time2006         0.02141177  0.03159715  0.6776  0.498264          
                time2007         0.01540518  0.03123740  0.4932  0.622083          
                time2008        -0.02248098  0.03143730 -0.7151  0.474831          
                time2009        -0.04182360  0.03091821 -1.3527  0.176672          
                time2010         0.04069978  0.03082599  1.3203  0.187252          
                time2011        -0.01178114  0.03042156 -0.3873  0.698703          
                time2012         0.00870264  0.03010540  0.2891  0.772629          
                time2013        -0.02720381  0.03006093 -0.9050  0.365864          
                time2014        -0.04055708  0.03100840 -1.3079  0.191411          
                time2015         0.01648937  0.03062116  0.5385  0.590441          
                time2016         0.00512089  0.03086477  0.1659  0.868283          
                time2017         0.02918155  0.03066610  0.9516  0.341701          
                time2018        -0.03967912  0.03101491 -1.2794  0.201282          
                time2019        -0.06772037  0.03024204 -2.2393  0.025515 *        
                time2020        -0.07666352  0.03050240 -2.5134  0.012228 *        
                time2021         0.05715190  0.02930564  1.9502  0.051633 .        
                iis116           1.11473349  0.10048661 11.0934 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis247          -0.41975264  0.10042955 -4.1796  3.37e-05 ***      
                iis248           0.40659964  0.10043880  4.0482  5.86e-05 ***      
                iis558           0.38083043  0.10055063  3.7874  0.000168 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   33.289  1 7.942e-09 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 41.299  1 1.307e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09624      
                R-squared          0.38079      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  618.11273      

AR = 1

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:22:08 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -0.23621708  0.03515868 -6.7186 4.644e-11 ***      
                d.lpop                4.03340052 12.39122625  0.3255 0.7449246          
                g.cdd                -0.01316226  0.01837737 -0.7162 0.4741627          
                g.hdd                -0.02633506  0.19391564 -0.1358 0.8920244          
                idAustria            -0.01406382  0.02061201 -0.6823 0.4953327          
                idBelgium            -0.03107005  0.02062907 -1.5061 0.1326155          
                idCanada             -0.02154026  0.02062450 -1.0444 0.2967645          
                idDenmark            -0.09894298  0.02125946 -4.6541 4.095e-06 ***      
                idFinland             0.04412463  0.02715150  1.6251 0.1047158          
                idFrance              0.12080459  0.08510454  1.4195 0.1563316          
                idGermany            -0.03258682  0.02064173 -1.5787 0.1149904          
                idGreece             -0.03263377  0.02063423 -1.5815 0.1143379          
                idIreland            -0.01652562  0.02062006 -0.8014 0.4232307          
                idItaly              -0.02249646  0.02062306 -1.0908 0.2758270          
                idJapan              -0.00054004  0.02061049 -0.0262 0.9791057          
                idNetherlands        -0.00847153  0.02061521 -0.4109 0.6812816          
                idNewZealand          0.15059540  0.06079614  2.4771 0.0135505 *        
                idPortugal            0.00557653  0.02188646  0.2548 0.7989790          
                idSpain              -0.02419887  0.02062727 -1.1731 0.2412502          
                idSweden              0.00826880  0.03996648  0.2069 0.8361708          
                idSwitzerland        -0.00270336  0.02079270 -0.1300 0.8966027          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.05547015  0.02067672 -2.6827 0.0075248 **       
                idUnitedStates       -0.01735897  0.02080675 -0.8343 0.4044816          
                time1991              0.00385184  0.15610530  0.0247 0.9803236          
                time1992             -0.01979670  0.14930517 -0.1326 0.8945650          
                time1993             -0.02879737  0.14227322 -0.2024 0.8396729          
                time1994              0.01425099  0.13790875  0.1033 0.9177341          
                time1995              0.02033136  0.13090739  0.1553 0.8766338          
                time1996             -0.00904750  0.13207880 -0.0685 0.9454122          
                time1997             -0.00902635  0.12596331 -0.0717 0.9429000          
                time1998              0.03905303  0.10951313  0.3566 0.7215254          
                time1999             -0.00409152  0.10393533 -0.0394 0.9686130          
                time2000             -0.01393291  0.11760777 -0.1185 0.9057396          
                time2001              0.01751475  0.13616395  0.1286 0.8976982          
                time2002              0.01837946  0.13725057  0.1339 0.8935220          
                time2003              0.02899244  0.11529659  0.2515 0.8015539          
                time2004             -0.02361759  0.11803319 -0.2001 0.8414829          
                time2005              0.02053936  0.12136656  0.1692 0.8656755          
                time2006             -0.04591554  0.12754133 -0.3600 0.7189832          
                time2007             -0.02925005  0.12365926 -0.2365 0.8131048          
                time2008             -0.07168681  0.13552008 -0.5290 0.5970386          
                time2009             -0.10206402  0.14302459 -0.7136 0.4757739          
                time2010             -0.00063807  0.14116975 -0.0045 0.9963954          
                time2011             -0.06193900  0.12437863 -0.4980 0.6186945          
                time2012             -0.03821173  0.13633415 -0.2803 0.7793695          
                time2013             -0.07589334  0.13386364 -0.5669 0.5709857          
                time2014             -0.11250070  0.12728197 -0.8839 0.3771576          
                time2015             -0.02683806  0.09768316 -0.2747 0.7836159          
                time2016             -0.04048271  0.14011279 -0.2889 0.7727456          
                time2017             -0.03200931  0.15008634 -0.2133 0.8311944          
                time2018             -0.07961406  0.17634980 -0.4515 0.6518417          
                time2019             -0.12470690  0.16809179 -0.7419 0.4584701          
                time2020             -0.15775597  0.17327348 -0.9104 0.3629919          
                time2021              0.00442094  0.16616044  0.0266 0.9787834          
                iis125                0.36854723  0.08529472  4.3209 1.849e-05 ***      
                iis130                0.37189307  0.08514324  4.3679 1.503e-05 ***      
                iis140                0.37416436  0.08501332  4.4012 1.296e-05 ***      
                iis163               -0.34513266  0.08671725 -3.9800 7.829e-05 ***      
                iis170               -0.41475716  0.08607046 -4.8188 1.877e-06 ***      
                iis171                0.36142180  0.08743402  4.1337 4.135e-05 ***      
                iis194                0.25491265  0.08512270  2.9946 0.0028729 **       
                iis440               -0.24554962  0.08535277 -2.8769 0.0041742 **       
                iis443                0.23301764  0.08506781  2.7392 0.0063613 **       
                iis454               -0.30597752  0.08516505 -3.5928 0.0003569 ***      
                iis502                0.49804052  0.09341212  5.3316 1.430e-07 ***      
                iis516                0.27255668  0.08551494  3.1872 0.0015190 **       
                iis528                0.40001845  0.09380787  4.2642 2.366e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005    -0.10009693  0.03167789 -3.1598 0.0016665 **       
                fesisFrance.1992     -0.35420167  0.09653464 -3.6692 0.0002673 ***      
                fesisFrance.1995      0.21733407  0.05107321  4.2553 2.459e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.33978525  0.07622777 -4.4575 1.008e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.49121483  0.07623883  6.4431 2.583e-10 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.30919525  0.06144111 -5.0324 6.597e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -0.25705289  0.05119614 -5.0209 6.984e-07 ***      
                fesisSweden.1996     -0.18191294  0.05601047 -3.2478 0.0012347 **       
                fesisSweden.2001      0.15492715  0.04566958  3.3923 0.0007435 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    1.0435  1 0.3069974          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.1912  1 0.0002813 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08114      
                R-squared          0.49875      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  714.31742      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:22:12 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -0.17943222  0.03539532 -5.0694 5.441e-07 ***      
                d.lpop                4.11794035 13.92322421  0.2958 0.7675232          
                g.cdd                -0.01383311  0.02065403 -0.6698 0.5032924          
                g.hdd                -0.02240746  0.21785727 -0.1029 0.9181160          
                idAustria            -0.01365869  0.02316839 -0.5895 0.5557383          
                idBelgium            -0.02965612  0.02318377 -1.2792 0.2013678          
                idCanada             -0.02031230  0.02317966 -0.8763 0.3812455          
                idDenmark             0.05860890  0.04144181  1.4142 0.1578484          
                idFinland            -0.01952512  0.02358433 -0.8279 0.4080900          
                idFrance             -0.02296149  0.02318577 -0.9903 0.3224444          
                idGermany            -0.03075312  0.02319519 -1.3258 0.1854361          
                idGreece             -0.03103530  0.02318843 -1.3384 0.1813134          
                idIreland            -0.01551103  0.02317564 -0.6693 0.5035932          
                idItaly              -0.02133335  0.02317836 -0.9204 0.3577625          
                idJapan              -0.00056129  0.02316702 -0.0242 0.9806794          
                idNetherlands        -0.00775848  0.02317128 -0.3348 0.7378781          
                idNewZealand          0.13431409  0.06813308  1.9713 0.0491785 *        
                idPortugal           -0.00570595  0.02381221 -0.2396 0.8107107          
                idSpain              -0.02285513  0.02318215 -0.9859 0.3246135          
                idSweden             -0.01372563  0.02317197 -0.5923 0.5538648          
                idSwitzerland         0.00814381  0.02320246  0.3510 0.7257293          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.05279923  0.02322676 -2.2732 0.0233936 *        
                idUnitedStates       -0.01497216  0.02338217 -0.6403 0.5222255          
                time1991              0.04213611  0.17511439  0.2406 0.8099378          
                time1992             -0.03920821  0.16771436 -0.2338 0.8152419          
                time1993             -0.04432113  0.15981849 -0.2773 0.7816360          
                time1994              0.00034764  0.15490703  0.0022 0.9982102          
                time1995              0.01330070  0.14709142  0.0904 0.9279822          
                time1996              0.00685686  0.14819873  0.0463 0.9631132          
                time1997             -0.01700298  0.14151366 -0.1202 0.9044070          
                time1998              0.02937775  0.12275693  0.2393 0.8109483          
                time1999             -0.00035327  0.11665228 -0.0030 0.9975848          
                time2000             -0.02057803  0.13210916 -0.1558 0.8762744          
                time2001              0.01993180  0.15300879  0.1303 0.8964032          
                time2002              0.01810310  0.15422505  0.1174 0.9066004          
                time2003              0.02898543  0.12955567  0.2237 0.8230498          
                time2004             -0.02409642  0.13263744 -0.1817 0.8559067          
                time2005              0.02058905  0.13639127  0.1510 0.8800653          
                time2006             -0.04915601  0.14333559 -0.3429 0.7317703          
                time2007             -0.03330369  0.13896210 -0.2397 0.8106818          
                time2008             -0.07408469  0.15228996 -0.4865 0.6268244          
                time2009             -0.10286740  0.16071829 -0.6400 0.5224047          
                time2010             -0.00082591  0.15846277 -0.0052 0.9958433          
                time2011             -0.06672608  0.13977605 -0.4774 0.6332799          
                time2012             -0.03800418  0.15320627 -0.2481 0.8041803          
                time2013             -0.07913078  0.15042385 -0.5261 0.5990614          
                time2014             -0.11292042  0.14302214 -0.7895 0.4301377          
                time2015             -0.02458914  0.10976736 -0.2240 0.8228306          
                time2016             -0.04306940  0.15746008 -0.2735 0.7845504          
                time2017             -0.03438104  0.16865599 -0.2039 0.8385428          
                time2018             -0.08286908  0.19817112 -0.4182 0.6759845          
                time2019             -0.12614702  0.18887865 -0.6679 0.5044911          
                time2020             -0.15716228  0.19469187 -0.8072 0.4198751          
                time2021              0.00619614  0.18669043  0.0332 0.9735354          
                iis140                0.38976079  0.09576476  4.0700 5.382e-05 ***      
                iis170               -0.44482176  0.09529288 -4.6679 3.816e-06 ***      
                iis171                0.35035473  0.09664635  3.6251 0.0003153 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1997    -0.16250268  0.04284960 -3.7924 0.0001655 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.30925750  0.08549381 -3.6173 0.0003247 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.46711199  0.08549627  5.4635 7.047e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29926106  0.06889159 -4.3439 1.663e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -0.23363640  0.05718102 -4.0859 5.036e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.6135  1   0.01012 *        
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.4352  1 8.538e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09121      
                R-squared          0.35036      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  634.93804      

Standard Controls

AR = 0

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 00:44:53 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                           coef  std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lgdp_wb            -3.1350927  3.1396766 -0.9985 0.3184398          
                d.lpop               -1.1408070  0.9726524 -1.1729 0.2413311          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          0.0645870  0.0586931  1.1004 0.2716130          
                idAustria            -0.0060396  0.0236281 -0.2556 0.7983440          
                idBelgium            -0.0254081  0.0236590 -1.0739 0.2833060          
                idCanada             -0.0203857  0.0221860 -0.9189 0.3585585          
                idDenmark            -0.0733300  0.0243241 -3.0147 0.0026863 **       
                idFinland            -0.0182887  0.0246111 -0.7431 0.4577209          
                idFrance             -0.0368334  0.0237444 -1.5512 0.1213960          
                idGermany            -0.0354497  0.0247690 -1.4312 0.1529148          
                idGreece             -0.0275650  0.0250552 -1.1002 0.2717210          
                idIreland            -0.0143867  0.0241394 -0.5960 0.5514227          
                idItaly              -0.0208881  0.0251263 -0.8313 0.4061380          
                idJapan              -0.0048048  0.0253135 -0.1898 0.8495245          
                idNetherlands        -0.0127448  0.0234055 -0.5445 0.5862940          
                idNewZealand          0.1216560  0.0553040  2.1998 0.0282227 *        
                idPortugal            0.0173402  0.0265890  0.6522 0.5145622          
                idSpain              -0.0219192  0.0231029 -0.9488 0.3431399          
                idSweden             -0.0161690  0.0234192 -0.6904 0.4902129          
                idSwitzerland         0.0029271  0.0228581  0.1281 0.8981489          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.0491708  0.0234260 -2.0990 0.0362563 *        
                idUnitedStates       -0.0241518  0.0234237 -1.0311 0.3029358          
                time1990              0.0425208  0.0291076  1.4608 0.1446158          
                time1991              0.0845328  0.0293890  2.8763 0.0041731 **       
                time1992              0.0169578  0.0284944  0.5951 0.5519942          
                time1993             -0.0105121  0.0282665 -0.3719 0.7101099          
                time1994              0.0538802  0.0288582  1.8671 0.0624037 .        
                time1995              0.0472093  0.0287474  1.6422 0.1010958          
                time1996              0.0299856  0.0297592  1.0076 0.3140679          
                time1997              0.0207459  0.0294949  0.7034 0.4821095          
                time1998              0.0321039  0.0289362  1.1095 0.2676942          
                time1999              0.0167225  0.0288419  0.5798 0.5622791          
                time2000              0.0103152  0.0293847  0.3510 0.7256882          
                time2001              0.0555726  0.0285484  1.9466 0.0520710 .        
                time2002              0.0512634  0.0288533  1.7767 0.0761500 .        
                time2003              0.0625884  0.0288395  2.1702 0.0304000 *        
                time2004              0.0057064  0.0293699  0.1943 0.8460141          
                time2005              0.0396693  0.0294477  1.3471 0.1784772          
                time2006             -0.0143028  0.0303788 -0.4708 0.6379523          
                time2007             -0.0016852  0.0294913 -0.0571 0.9544530          
                time2008             -0.0180232  0.0289028 -0.6236 0.5331535          
                time2009             -0.0249259  0.0292690 -0.8516 0.3947848          
                time2010              0.0612127  0.0289991  2.1108 0.0352189 *        
                time2011             -0.0329909  0.0276554 -1.1929 0.2333924          
                time2012              0.0158960  0.0275601  0.5768 0.5643178          
                time2013             -0.0308761  0.0277539 -1.1125 0.2663919          
                time2014             -0.0634707  0.0283756 -2.2368 0.0256833 *        
                time2015              0.0118713  0.0288982  0.4108 0.6813753          
                time2016             -0.0020533  0.0288227 -0.0712 0.9432333          
                time2017              0.0169671  0.0289767  0.5855 0.5584129          
                time2018             -0.0305213  0.0286821 -1.0641 0.2877208          
                time2019             -0.0674908  0.0282638 -2.3879 0.0172691 *        
                time2020             -0.0563348  0.0294840 -1.9107 0.0565437 .        
                time2021              0.0556418  0.0295972  1.8800 0.0606201 .        
                iis117                1.1227572  0.0917480 12.2374 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis181                0.3801155  0.0920884  4.1277 4.209e-05 ***      
                iis191                0.3895118  0.0919096  4.2380 2.629e-05 ***      
                iis248               -0.4277926  0.0917430 -4.6629 3.884e-06 ***      
                iis249                0.4274931  0.0919168  4.6509 4.109e-06 ***      
                iis270                0.3203600  0.0917539  3.4915 0.0005174 ***      
                iis442               -0.2886445  0.0924110 -3.1235 0.0018776 **       
                iis456               -0.3596849  0.0919539 -3.9116 0.0001027 ***      
                iis471                0.3615785  0.0921818  3.9224 9.830e-05 ***      
                iis472               -0.3103655  0.0919342 -3.3760 0.0007855 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2018   -0.2107832  0.0484906 -4.3469 1.634e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.2867605  0.0752853 -3.8090 0.0001546 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.4674166  0.0829637  5.6340 2.765e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.3031375  0.0667202 -4.5434 6.756e-06 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   18.214  1 1.974e-05 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 29.859  1 4.647e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08793      
                R-squared          0.49115      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  681.84175      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 00:44:54 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                       coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lgdp_wb       -4.45842311  3.41696412 -1.3048  0.192480          
                d.lpop          -0.82532134  1.04997102 -0.7860  0.432163          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq     0.08785803  0.06393628  1.3741  0.169924          
                idAustria       -0.00292956  0.02590901 -0.1131  0.910013          
                idBelgium       -0.02240117  0.02594188 -0.8635  0.388211          
                idCanada        -0.02005955  0.02437193 -0.8231  0.410811          
                idDenmark       -0.04580018  0.02628220 -1.7426  0.081926 .        
                idFinland       -0.01391416  0.02697386 -0.5158  0.606163          
                idFrance        -0.02518428  0.02585252 -0.9742  0.330386          
                idGermany       -0.03305475  0.02713569 -1.2181  0.223669          
                idGreece        -0.02415476  0.02744780 -0.8800  0.379209          
                idIreland       -0.00831513  0.02643688 -0.3145  0.753233          
                idItaly         -0.01813347  0.02752724 -0.6587  0.510319          
                idJapan         -0.00215262  0.02772417 -0.0776  0.938138          
                idNetherlands   -0.01009702  0.02566871 -0.3934  0.694198          
                idNewZealand     0.00388948  0.02534449  0.1535  0.878085          
                idPortugal      -0.02489983  0.02776519 -0.8968  0.370196          
                idSpain         -0.02008571  0.02535120 -0.7923  0.428510          
                idSweden        -0.01190028  0.02538861 -0.4687  0.639442          
                idSwitzerland    0.00457649  0.02509627  0.1824  0.855366          
                idUnitedKingdom -0.04776157  0.02569927 -1.8585  0.063606 .        
                idUnitedStates  -0.02598626  0.02571277 -1.0106  0.312610          
                time1990         0.04688732  0.03191212  1.4693  0.142302          
                time1991         0.08637252  0.03224275  2.6788  0.007597 **       
                time1992         0.01942172  0.03126243  0.6212  0.534680          
                time1993        -0.02226433  0.03082031 -0.7224  0.470344          
                time1994         0.04414984  0.03154644  1.3995  0.162190          
                time1995         0.03778719  0.03143336  1.2021  0.229799          
                time1996         0.06606512  0.03116222  2.1200  0.034425 *        
                time1997        -0.00066214  0.03206769 -0.0206  0.983533          
                time1998         0.04703582  0.03136833  1.4995  0.134294          
                time1999         0.01588070  0.03160749  0.5024  0.615552          
                time2000         0.00919167  0.03219977  0.2855  0.775395          
                time2001         0.05312581  0.03125395  1.6998  0.089701 .        
                time2002         0.04844407  0.03157298  1.5344  0.125486          
                time2003         0.05942974  0.03155434  1.8834  0.060143 .        
                time2004         0.00346755  0.03215638  0.1078  0.914165          
                time2005         0.03677587  0.03222985  1.1410  0.254318          
                time2006         0.00368889  0.03281136  0.1124  0.910523          
                time2007        -0.00422817  0.03228234 -0.1310  0.895841          
                time2008        -0.02245629  0.03158924 -0.7109  0.477441          
                time2009        -0.03078621  0.03194887 -0.9636  0.335642          
                time2010         0.04003731  0.03135970  1.2767  0.202213          
                time2011        -0.03626525  0.03028027 -1.1977  0.231540          
                time2012         0.01180419  0.03015387  0.3915  0.695597          
                time2013        -0.03438628  0.03037539 -1.1320  0.258082          
                time2014        -0.06622142  0.03106622 -2.1316  0.033456 *        
                time2015         0.00983466  0.03164700  0.3108  0.756093          
                time2016        -0.00519091  0.03154206 -0.1646  0.869339          
                time2017         0.01440682  0.03172648  0.4541  0.649930          
                time2018        -0.04364990  0.03133948 -1.3928  0.164209          
                time2019        -0.08077136  0.03087893 -2.6157  0.009134 **       
                time2020        -0.07211777  0.03213128 -2.2445  0.025177 *        
                time2021         0.04472027  0.03240383  1.3801  0.168088          
                iis117           1.11614197  0.10075670 11.0776 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis248          -0.42739820  0.10079301 -4.2404 2.595e-05 ***      
                iis249           0.40811010  0.10083472  4.0473 5.881e-05 ***      
                iis559           0.40290351  0.10088178  3.9938 7.335e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   29.529  1 5.509e-08 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 41.871  1 9.751e-11 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09661      
                R-squared          0.37500      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  616.59638      

AR = 1

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 00:45:38 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -2.3566e-01  3.5000e-02 -6.7333 4.205e-11 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb            -4.6646e+03  1.3275e+03 -3.5137 0.0004785 ***      
                d.lpop               -7.3213e+00  1.7007e+00 -4.3049 1.980e-05 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          7.7998e+01  2.2179e+01  3.5167 0.0004732 ***      
                idAustria            -1.4060e-02  2.0549e-02 -0.6842 0.4941398          
                idBelgium            -3.1056e-02  2.0566e-02 -1.5100 0.1316082          
                idCanada             -2.1528e-02  2.0562e-02 -1.0470 0.2955615          
                idDenmark            -9.9014e-02  2.1194e-02 -4.6718 3.763e-06 ***      
                idFinland             4.4178e-02  2.7067e-02  1.6322 0.1032203          
                idFrance              1.2180e-01  8.4692e-02  1.4381 0.1509754          
                idGermany            -3.2569e-02  2.0579e-02 -1.5826 0.1140835          
                idGreece             -3.2618e-02  2.0571e-02 -1.5856 0.1134082          
                idIreland            -1.6516e-02  2.0557e-02 -0.8034 0.4220958          
                idItaly              -2.2485e-02  2.0560e-02 -1.0936 0.2746065          
                idJapan              -5.4025e-04  2.0548e-02 -0.0263 0.9790339          
                idNetherlands        -8.4645e-03  2.0553e-02 -0.4118 0.6806117          
                idNewZealand          1.5126e-01  6.0556e-02  2.4979 0.0127874 *        
                idPortugal            5.5842e-03  2.1820e-02  0.2559 0.7981055          
                idSpain              -2.4186e-02  2.0565e-02 -1.1761 0.2400716          
                idSweden              8.3105e-03  3.9832e-02  0.2086 0.8348098          
                idSwitzerland        -2.7337e-03  2.0729e-02 -0.1319 0.8951292          
                idUnitedKingdom      -5.5444e-02  2.0614e-02 -2.6897 0.0073707 **       
                idUnitedStates       -1.7907e-02  2.0557e-02 -0.8711 0.3841027          
                time1991             -7.7901e+00  2.2830e+00 -3.4122 0.0006922 ***      
                time1992              3.5024e+00  9.6804e-01  3.6180 0.0003244 ***      
                time1993              9.9064e+00  2.8224e+00  3.5099 0.0004853 ***      
                time1994              1.6357e+01  4.6590e+00  3.5108 0.0004836 ***      
                time1995              9.7936e+00  2.7742e+00  3.5302 0.0004502 ***      
                time1996              5.8967e+00  1.6598e+00  3.5526 0.0004144 ***      
                time1997              1.5005e+01  4.2820e+00  3.5043 0.0004954 ***      
                time1998              1.3480e+01  3.8373e+00  3.5130 0.0004798 ***      
                time1999              1.7325e+01  4.9560e+00  3.4957 0.0005112 ***      
                time2000              1.6984e+01  4.8568e+00  3.4970 0.0005088 ***      
                time2001              5.9757e+00  1.6779e+00  3.5613 0.0004011 ***      
                time2002              9.8161e+00  2.7829e+00  3.5273 0.0004551 ***      
                time2003              5.8791e+00  1.6513e+00  3.5604 0.0004025 ***      
                time2004              9.7565e+00  2.7812e+00  3.5080 0.0004885 ***      
                time2005              9.9904e+00  2.8420e+00  3.5153 0.0004757 ***      
                time2006              8.0994e+00  2.3092e+00  3.5075 0.0004895 ***      
                time2007              6.3360e+00  1.7994e+00  3.5212 0.0004655 ***      
                time2008              3.0789e+00  8.6853e-01  3.5449 0.0004263 ***      
                time2009             -9.0059e+00  2.6067e+00 -3.4550 0.0005931 ***      
                time2010              9.3746e+00  2.6639e+00  3.5191 0.0004691 ***      
                time2011              9.3240e+00  2.6695e+00  3.4928 0.0005166 ***      
                time2012              5.2434e+00  1.4843e+00  3.5326 0.0004462 ***      
                time2013              6.7803e+00  1.9379e+00  3.4987 0.0005056 ***      
                time2014              8.1657e+00  2.3504e+00  3.4742 0.0005529 ***      
                time2015              1.9326e+00  5.3908e-01  3.5851 0.0003671 ***      
                time2016              2.9187e+00  8.1422e-01  3.5847 0.0003677 ***      
                time2017              8.5328e+00  2.4266e+00  3.5164 0.0004737 ***      
                time2018              6.7224e+00  1.9154e+00  3.5096 0.0004857 ***      
                iis125                3.6951e-01  8.4876e-02  4.3535 1.600e-05 ***      
                iis130                3.7260e-01  8.4877e-02  4.3899 1.362e-05 ***      
                iis140                3.7566e-01  8.4734e-02  4.4334 1.122e-05 ***      
                iis163               -3.4578e-01  8.6445e-02 -4.0000 7.205e-05 ***      
                iis170               -4.1584e-01  8.5795e-02 -4.8469 1.636e-06 ***      
                iis171                3.6301e-01  8.7147e-02  4.1654 3.611e-05 ***      
                iis194                2.5433e-01  8.4854e-02  2.9972 0.0028483 **       
                iis440               -2.4507e-01  8.5089e-02 -2.8802 0.0041305 **       
                iis443                2.3312e-01  8.4790e-02  2.7494 0.0061687 **       
                iis454               -3.0676e-01  8.4896e-02 -3.6133 0.0003302 ***      
                iis502                4.9873e-01  9.3122e-02  5.3557 1.257e-07 ***      
                iis516                2.7177e-01  8.5245e-02  3.1881 0.0015138 **       
                iis528                4.0033e-01  9.3370e-02  4.2876 2.135e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005    -1.0017e-01  3.1577e-02 -3.1722 0.0015978 **       
                fesisFrance.1992     -3.5519e-01  9.6105e-02 -3.6959 0.0002412 ***      
                fesisFrance.1995      2.1734e-01  5.0917e-02  4.2685 2.320e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.4079e-01  7.5948e-02 -4.4872 8.801e-06 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  4.9163e-01  7.6005e-02  6.4685 2.199e-10 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -3.0929e-01  6.1253e-02 -5.0494 6.045e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -2.5694e-01  5.1039e-02 -5.0342 6.525e-07 ***      
                fesisSweden.1996     -1.8204e-01  5.5829e-02 -3.2606 0.0011810 **       
                fesisSweden.2001      1.5503e-01  4.5530e-02  3.4051 0.0007099 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    1.0742  1 0.2999913          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.1815  1 0.0002827 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08090      
                R-squared          0.49816      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  715.79645      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 00:45:40 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -1.7837e-01  3.5240e-02 -5.0616 5.645e-07 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb            -4.8120e+03  1.4921e+03 -3.2250 0.0013330 **       
                d.lpop               -7.1644e+00  1.9083e+00 -3.7544 0.0001919 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          8.0461e+01  2.4928e+01  3.2277 0.0013207 **       
                idAustria            -1.3651e-02  2.3105e-02 -0.5908 0.5548729          
                idBelgium            -2.9630e-02  2.3120e-02 -1.2815 0.2005321          
                idCanada             -2.0289e-02  2.3116e-02 -0.8777 0.3804766          
                idDenmark             5.9021e-02  4.1321e-02  1.4283 0.1537533          
                idFinland            -1.9525e-02  2.3520e-02 -0.8301 0.4068149          
                idFrance             -2.2934e-02  2.3122e-02 -0.9918 0.3217050          
                idGermany            -3.0719e-02  2.3132e-02 -1.3280 0.1847182          
                idGreece             -3.1005e-02  2.3125e-02 -1.3408 0.1805349          
                idIreland            -1.5492e-02  2.3112e-02 -0.6703 0.5029441          
                idItaly              -2.1312e-02  2.3115e-02 -0.9220 0.3569329          
                idJapan              -5.6169e-04  2.3104e-02 -0.0243 0.9806126          
                idNetherlands        -7.7451e-03  2.3108e-02 -0.3352 0.7376197          
                idNewZealand          1.3600e-01  6.7903e-02  2.0028 0.0456778 *        
                idPortugal           -5.6950e-03  2.3747e-02 -0.2398 0.8105581          
                idSpain              -2.2830e-02  2.3119e-02 -0.9875 0.3238170          
                idSweden             -1.3711e-02  2.3109e-02 -0.5933 0.5531924          
                idSwitzerland         8.1053e-03  2.3139e-02  0.3503 0.7262517          
                idUnitedKingdom      -5.2749e-02  2.3163e-02 -2.2773 0.0231435 *        
                idUnitedStates       -1.6885e-02  2.3112e-02 -0.7306 0.4653558          
                time1991             -8.0077e+00  2.5661e+00 -3.1206 0.0018976 **       
                time1992              3.5905e+00  1.0881e+00  3.2998 0.0010288 **       
                time1993              1.0203e+01  3.1723e+00  3.2161 0.0013741 **       
                time1994              1.6859e+01  5.2364e+00  3.2196 0.0013579 **       
                time1995              1.0094e+01  3.1181e+00  3.2371 0.0012787 **       
                time1996              6.0969e+00  1.8656e+00  3.2681 0.0011488 **       
                time1997              1.5472e+01  4.8127e+00  3.2147 0.0013808 **       
                time1998              1.3895e+01  4.3129e+00  3.2217 0.0013481 **       
                time1999              1.7878e+01  5.5703e+00  3.2095 0.0014054 **       
                time2000              1.7516e+01  5.4587e+00  3.2089 0.0014088 **       
                time2001              6.1633e+00  1.8859e+00  3.2680 0.0011492 **       
                time2002              1.0124e+01  3.1278e+00  3.2368 0.0012802 **       
                time2003              6.0623e+00  1.8559e+00  3.2664 0.0011557 **       
                time2004              1.0064e+01  3.1259e+00  3.2196 0.0013578 **       
                time2005              1.0304e+01  3.1943e+00  3.2259 0.0013290 **       
                time2006              8.3518e+00  2.5954e+00  3.2179 0.0013657 **       
                time2007              6.5315e+00  2.0225e+00  3.2295 0.0013126 **       
                time2008              3.1727e+00  9.7621e-01  3.2500 0.0012231 **       
                time2009             -9.2960e+00  2.9297e+00 -3.1730 0.0015914 **       
                time2010              9.6685e+00  2.9941e+00  3.2292 0.0013139 **       
                time2011              9.6152e+00  3.0004e+00  3.2047 0.0014290 **       
                time2012              5.4074e+00  1.6683e+00  3.2414 0.0012601 **       
                time2013              6.9921e+00  2.1782e+00  3.2101 0.0014027 **       
                time2014              8.4259e+00  2.6417e+00  3.1896 0.0015041 **       
                time2015              1.9940e+00  6.0589e-01  3.2910 0.0010609 **       
                time2016              3.0056e+00  9.1517e-01  3.2842 0.0010864 **       
                time2017              8.7994e+00  2.7273e+00  3.2264 0.0013267 **       
                time2018              6.9308e+00  2.1529e+00  3.2193 0.0013592 **       
                iis140                3.9135e-01  9.5480e-02  4.0988 4.767e-05 ***      
                iis170               -4.4600e-01  9.5015e-02 -4.6940 3.370e-06 ***      
                iis171                3.5213e-01  9.6358e-02  3.6544 0.0002820 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1997    -1.6300e-01  4.2722e-02 -3.8154 0.0001511 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.1133e-01  8.5221e-02 -3.6532 0.0002833 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  4.6745e-01  8.5260e-02  5.4826 6.344e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9930e-01  6.8701e-02 -4.3566 1.571e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -2.3351e-01  5.7024e-02 -4.0949 4.845e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.8468  1  0.00888 **       
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.5185  1 8.17e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09096      
                R-squared          0.34932      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  636.11219      

Standard Controls w. Temp

AR = 0

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:19:18 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lgdp_wb            -2.98274353  3.09053623 -0.9651 0.3348946          
                d.lpop               -1.10437998  0.95844186 -1.1523 0.2496965          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          0.06159057  0.05777955  1.0660 0.2868955          
                g.cdd                 0.00028884  0.00017082  1.6909 0.0914127 .        
                g.hdd                 0.12148326  0.04113144  2.9535 0.0032716 **       
                idAustria            -0.00537193  0.02323127 -0.2312 0.8172140          
                idBelgium            -0.02506704  0.02326290 -1.0776 0.2816901          
                idCanada             -0.01865244  0.02181651 -0.8550 0.3929288          
                idDenmark            -0.08447756  0.02407491 -3.5089 0.0004855 ***      
                idFinland            -0.02228241  0.02434267 -0.9154 0.3603887          
                idFrance             -0.03611585  0.02334615 -1.5470 0.1224269          
                idGermany            -0.03469285  0.02435760 -1.4243 0.1549050          
                idGreece             -0.02675075  0.02463666 -1.0858 0.2780234          
                idIreland            -0.01340612  0.02373233 -0.5649 0.5723727          
                idItaly              -0.02001450  0.02470701 -0.8101 0.4182372          
                idJapan              -0.00288882  0.02489176 -0.1161 0.9076496          
                idNetherlands        -0.01250095  0.02301396 -0.5432 0.5872123          
                idNewZealand          0.11508736  0.05450777  2.1114 0.0351747 *        
                idPortugal            0.01779339  0.02614816  0.6805 0.4964757          
                idSpain              -0.02176098  0.02271555 -0.9580 0.3384819          
                idSweden             -0.02217730  0.02334975 -0.9498 0.3426242          
                idSwitzerland         0.00355039  0.02247267  0.1580 0.8745233          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.04874390  0.02303753 -2.1158 0.0347923 *        
                idUnitedStates       -0.02196256  0.02324705 -0.9447 0.3451903          
                time1990              0.04149716  0.02899914  1.4310 0.1529861          
                time1991              0.05265803  0.02976672  1.7690 0.0774265 .        
                time1992              0.02122204  0.02807377  0.7559 0.4499996          
                time1993             -0.01442496  0.02782223 -0.5185 0.6043330          
                time1994              0.05892884  0.02858601  2.0615 0.0397139 *        
                time1995              0.04473051  0.02827578  1.5819 0.1142205          
                time1996              0.01699300  0.02953957  0.5753 0.5653419          
                time1997              0.03581433  0.02949245  1.2144 0.2251165          
                time1998              0.03392812  0.02845829  1.1922 0.2336786          
                time1999              0.01396276  0.02844281  0.4909 0.6236823          
                time2000              0.01239875  0.02890099  0.4290 0.6680802          
                time2001              0.04834068  0.02813405  1.7182 0.0863002 .        
                time2002              0.05803582  0.02848251  2.0376 0.0420533 *        
                time2003              0.05338281  0.02849782  1.8732 0.0615507 .        
                time2004              0.00668073  0.02888296  0.2313 0.8171622          
                time2005              0.04105322  0.02896348  1.4174 0.1569104          
                time2006             -0.01164423  0.02990350 -0.3894 0.6971312          
                time2007              0.00431801  0.02908127  0.1485 0.8820160          
                time2008             -0.02460719  0.02847385 -0.8642 0.3878412          
                time2009             -0.02781738  0.02880416 -0.9657 0.3345844          
                time2010              0.04796099  0.02883159  1.6635 0.0967664 .        
                time2011             -0.01702111  0.02774715 -0.6134 0.5398335          
                time2012              0.00609570  0.02728378  0.2234 0.8232902          
                time2013             -0.03142094  0.02729045 -1.1514 0.2500716          
                time2014             -0.04766817  0.02844115 -1.6760 0.0942830 .        
                time2015              0.00483751  0.02850062  0.1697 0.8652802          
                time2016             -0.00308325  0.02834095 -0.1088 0.9134065          
                time2017              0.01812253  0.02849703  0.6359 0.5250688          
                time2018             -0.03947290  0.02875133 -1.3729 0.1703231          
                time2019             -0.06520486  0.02780617 -2.3450 0.0193715 *        
                time2020             -0.04559936  0.02927847 -1.5574 0.1199239          
                time2021              0.04420816  0.02935463  1.5060 0.1326223          
                iis116                1.11834350  0.09033129 12.3805 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis175                0.31164598  0.09036989  3.4486 0.0006054 ***      
                iis180                0.38659990  0.09059715  4.2672 2.319e-05 ***      
                iis190                0.39844913  0.09041353  4.4070 1.254e-05 ***      
                iis247               -0.41958434  0.09023391 -4.6500 4.133e-06 ***      
                iis248                0.42675151  0.09041570  4.7199 2.975e-06 ***      
                iis269                0.31080882  0.09024756  3.4440 0.0006155 ***      
                iis441               -0.32874343  0.09183052 -3.5799 0.0003732 ***      
                iis455               -0.36253565  0.09040165 -4.0103 6.875e-05 ***      
                iis470                0.36875788  0.09070090  4.0656 5.466e-05 ***      
                iis471               -0.31023412  0.09039930 -3.4318 0.0006432 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2018   -0.20865647  0.04768933 -4.3753 1.443e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.27175856  0.07428704 -3.6582 0.0002776 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.45551415  0.08164705  5.5791 3.746e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29948845  0.06560163 -4.5653 6.120e-06 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   21.708  1 3.174e-06 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.628  1 1.470e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08644      
                R-squared          0.51164      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  693.22970      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:19:20 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                       coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lgdp_wb       -4.30109024  3.40646912 -1.2626  0.207233          
                d.lpop          -0.97799600  1.04700759 -0.9341  0.350648          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq     0.08500802  0.06374447  1.3336  0.182868          
                g.cdd            0.00028888  0.00018977  1.5223  0.128474          
                g.hdd            0.11064888  0.04517963  2.4491  0.014617 *        
                idAustria       -0.00373560  0.02579203 -0.1448  0.884891          
                idBelgium       -0.02354815  0.02582666 -0.9118  0.362266          
                idCanada        -0.01889609  0.02426545 -0.7787  0.436461          
                idDenmark       -0.04834584  0.02618258 -1.8465  0.065331 .        
                idFinland       -0.01964097  0.02701777 -0.7270  0.467541          
                idFrance        -0.02622474  0.02573705 -1.0189  0.308653          
                idGermany       -0.03435853  0.02701628 -1.2718  0.203965          
                idGreece        -0.02531710  0.02732573 -0.9265  0.354576          
                idIreland       -0.00815809  0.02631637 -0.3100  0.756672          
                idItaly         -0.01930485  0.02740461 -0.7044  0.481443          
                idJapan         -0.00252207  0.02759823 -0.0914  0.927218          
                idNetherlands   -0.01129572  0.02555484 -0.4420  0.658641          
                idNewZealand     0.00455463  0.02523081  0.1805  0.856808          
                idPortugal      -0.02759581  0.02765896 -0.9977  0.318833          
                idSpain         -0.02113422  0.02523823 -0.8374  0.402719          
                idSweden        -0.01892073  0.02561242 -0.7387  0.460369          
                idSwitzerland    0.00435228  0.02498173  0.1742  0.861755          
                idUnitedKingdom -0.04880508  0.02558795 -1.9073  0.056970 .        
                idUnitedStates  -0.02443777  0.02583649 -0.9459  0.344613          
                time1990         0.04768365  0.03218263  1.4817  0.138975          
                time1991         0.07360748  0.03257271  2.2598  0.024205 *        
                time1992         0.02501749  0.03118641  0.8022  0.422771          
                time1993        -0.02349596  0.03069973 -0.7653  0.444377          
                time1994         0.05034728  0.03167455  1.5895  0.112489          
                time1995         0.03740442  0.03129693  1.1951  0.232519          
                time1996         0.05441419  0.03144418  1.7305  0.084074 .        
                time1997         0.01501924  0.03254427  0.4615  0.644612          
                time1998         0.04959450  0.03123730  1.5877  0.112907          
                time1999         0.01428423  0.03156252  0.4526  0.651028          
                time2000         0.01246054  0.03207241  0.3885  0.697780          
                time2001         0.04818286  0.03116753  1.5459  0.122667          
                time2002         0.05656097  0.03157527  1.7913  0.073766 .        
                time2003         0.05299176  0.03154218  1.6800  0.093491 .        
                time2004         0.00612553  0.03202272  0.1913  0.848368          
                time2005         0.03986573  0.03210207  1.2418  0.214797          
                time2006         0.00833630  0.03270905  0.2549  0.798920          
                time2007         0.00310299  0.03224852  0.0962  0.923378          
                time2008        -0.02622882  0.03148934 -0.8329  0.405221          
                time2009        -0.03084864  0.03182248 -0.9694  0.332752          
                time2010         0.02954675  0.03154034  0.9368  0.349256          
                time2011        -0.02015522  0.03079241 -0.6546  0.513016          
                time2012         0.00464269  0.03019454  0.1538  0.877853          
                time2013        -0.03317173  0.03024117 -1.0969  0.273138          
                time2014        -0.05013821  0.03156071 -1.5886  0.112690          
                time2015         0.00506010  0.03158275  0.1602  0.872766          
                time2016        -0.00425752  0.03140117 -0.1356  0.892197          
                time2017         0.01717553  0.03159606  0.5436  0.586928          
                time2018        -0.05093476  0.03179704 -1.6019  0.109730          
                time2019        -0.07694378  0.03076766 -2.5008  0.012666 *        
                time2020        -0.05983853  0.03233065 -1.8508  0.064703 .        
                time2021         0.03508876  0.03251236  1.0792  0.280928          
                iis116           1.11265165  0.10043663 11.0781 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis247          -0.41938569  0.10037702 -4.1781 3.393e-05 ***      
                iis248           0.40753060  0.10043219  4.0578 5.634e-05 ***      
                iis558           0.38676660  0.10064040  3.8431  0.000135 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   33.518  1 7.060e-09 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 40.480  1 1.986e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09617      
                R-squared          0.38389      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  619.61417      

AR = 1

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:20:49 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -2.4582e-01  3.5287e-02 -6.9663 9.483e-12 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb            -2.4432e+01  3.2099e+01 -0.7611 0.4469036          
                d.lpop                2.5197e+00  1.2568e+01  0.2005 0.8411724          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          4.2633e-01  5.7152e-01  0.7460 0.4560159          
                g.cdd                -1.2599e-02  1.8451e-02 -0.6828 0.4950098          
                g.hdd                 5.4486e-03  1.9547e-01  0.0279 0.9777723          
                idAustria            -1.4132e-02  2.0631e-02 -0.6850 0.4936371          
                idBelgium            -3.1309e-02  2.0648e-02 -1.5163 0.1300261          
                idCanada             -2.1748e-02  2.0644e-02 -1.0535 0.2925876          
                idDenmark            -9.8776e-02  2.1279e-02 -4.6419 4.337e-06 ***      
                idFinland             4.3999e-02  2.7177e-02  1.6190 0.1060312          
                idFrance              1.1946e-01  8.5184e-02  1.4023 0.1613908          
                idGermany            -3.2897e-02  2.0661e-02 -1.5922 0.1119198          
                idGreece             -3.2904e-02  2.0653e-02 -1.5931 0.1117111          
                idIreland            -1.6697e-02  2.0639e-02 -0.8090 0.4188695          
                idItaly              -2.2693e-02  2.0642e-02 -1.0994 0.2721027          
                idJapan              -5.3645e-04  2.0630e-02 -0.0260 0.9792640          
                idNetherlands        -8.5921e-03  2.0634e-02 -0.4164 0.6772840          
                idNewZealand          1.5174e-01  6.0858e-02  2.4934 0.0129520 *        
                idPortugal            6.0391e-03  2.1907e-02  0.2757 0.7829047          
                idSpain              -2.4426e-02  2.0646e-02 -1.1831 0.2373040          
                idSweden              8.9175e-03  4.0007e-02  0.2229 0.8236994          
                idSwitzerland        -2.7058e-03  2.0812e-02 -0.1300 0.8966059          
                idUnitedKingdom      -5.5922e-02  2.0696e-02 -2.7020 0.0071082 **       
                idUnitedStates       -1.7188e-02  2.0910e-02 -0.8220 0.4114421          
                time1991              1.8655e-03  1.5702e-01  0.0119 0.9905249          
                time1992              5.0708e-03  1.5242e-01  0.0333 0.9734728          
                time1993              1.1432e-02  1.4854e-01  0.0770 0.9386783          
                time1994              7.2153e-02  1.5068e-01  0.4789 0.6322335          
                time1995              6.1787e-02  1.3800e-01  0.4477 0.6545138          
                time1996              3.8442e-02  1.3624e-01  0.2822 0.7779245          
                time1997              3.7300e-02  1.3709e-01  0.2721 0.7856692          
                time1998              8.8011e-02  1.2022e-01  0.7321 0.4644174          
                time1999              4.6721e-02  1.1688e-01  0.3997 0.6895134          
                time2000              3.6440e-02  1.2942e-01  0.2816 0.7783833          
                time2001              4.9322e-02  1.4043e-01  0.3512 0.7255501          
                time2002              5.3926e-02  1.4255e-01  0.3783 0.7053512          
                time2003              5.4548e-02  1.1875e-01  0.4594 0.6461580          
                time2004              1.1783e-02  1.2383e-01  0.0952 0.9242241          
                time2005              5.5509e-02  1.2683e-01  0.4377 0.6618049          
                time2006             -1.2428e-02  1.3241e-01 -0.0939 0.9252534          
                time2007             -4.7266e-03  1.2679e-01 -0.0373 0.9702757          
                time2008             -5.0137e-02  1.3802e-01 -0.3633 0.7165491          
                time2009             -1.0228e-01  1.4537e-01 -0.7035 0.4820169          
                time2010              3.3466e-02  1.4591e-01  0.2294 0.8186763          
                time2011             -3.0504e-02  1.2910e-01 -0.2363 0.8133048          
                time2012             -1.0937e-02  1.3967e-01 -0.0783 0.9376142          
                time2013             -5.0579e-02  1.3705e-01 -0.3691 0.7122347          
                time2014             -8.5058e-02  1.3116e-01 -0.6485 0.5169373          
                time2015             -1.0790e-02  9.9479e-02 -0.1085 0.9136665          
                time2016             -1.7911e-02  1.4252e-01 -0.1257 0.9000383          
                time2017             -1.3708e-03  1.5407e-01 -0.0089 0.9929048          
                time2018             -4.9902e-02  1.7958e-01 -0.2779 0.7812054          
                time2019             -1.0536e-01  1.7056e-01 -0.6177 0.5370330          
                time2020             -1.7458e-01  1.8082e-01 -0.9655 0.3347325          
                time2021             -9.6151e-03  1.7154e-01 -0.0561 0.9553211          
                iis125                3.6881e-01  8.5374e-02  4.3200 1.857e-05 ***      
                iis130                3.5175e-01  8.5157e-02  4.1305 4.192e-05 ***      
                iis140                3.7251e-01  8.5094e-02  4.3776 1.441e-05 ***      
                iis163               -3.4578e-01  8.6799e-02 -3.9837 7.715e-05 ***      
                iis170               -4.1559e-01  8.6151e-02 -4.8240 1.832e-06 ***      
                iis171                3.5734e-01  8.7523e-02  4.0828 5.122e-05 ***      
                iis194                2.5417e-01  8.5202e-02  2.9831 0.0029823 **       
                iis410                4.2991e-01  8.5258e-02  5.0425 6.280e-07 ***      
                iis440               -2.6343e-01  8.5363e-02 -3.0860 0.0021328 **       
                iis443                2.3421e-01  8.5147e-02  2.7506 0.0061476 **       
                iis454               -3.0278e-01  8.5280e-02 -3.5504 0.0004182 ***      
                iis502                4.7650e-01  9.3472e-02  5.0978 4.758e-07 ***      
                iis516                2.7593e-01  8.5638e-02  3.2221 0.0013492 **       
                iis528                4.1087e-01  9.3939e-02  4.3738 1.465e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005    -9.9863e-02  3.1707e-02 -3.1496 0.0017255 **       
                fesisFrance.1992     -3.5294e-01  9.6630e-02 -3.6525 0.0002849 ***      
                fesisFrance.1995      2.1722e-01  5.1140e-02  4.2476 2.544e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.4113e-01  7.6300e-02 -4.4709 9.493e-06 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  1.8946e-01  5.1069e-02  3.7098 0.0002289 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -2.5954e-01  5.1257e-02 -5.0634 5.657e-07 ***      
                fesisSweden.1996     -1.8057e-01  5.6066e-02 -3.2206 0.0013561 **       
                fesisSweden.2001      1.5298e-01  4.5722e-02  3.3458 0.0008774 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                    Chi-sq df  p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    0.45493  1 0.500001          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 12.50420  1 0.000406 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08122      
                R-squared          0.49967      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  714.74434      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:20:54 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -1.7879e-01  3.5433e-02 -5.0459 6.127e-07 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb            -2.7062e+01  3.6065e+01 -0.7504 0.4533468          
                d.lpop                2.1937e+00  1.4121e+01  0.1553 0.8766021          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          4.7148e-01  6.4214e-01  0.7342 0.4631222          
                g.cdd                -1.2622e-02  2.0736e-02 -0.6087 0.5429891          
                g.hdd                 3.4614e-03  2.1955e-01  0.0158 0.9874271          
                idAustria            -1.3654e-02  2.3188e-02 -0.5888 0.5562128          
                idBelgium            -2.9640e-02  2.3204e-02 -1.2774 0.2020015          
                idCanada             -2.0298e-02  2.3200e-02 -0.8749 0.3819831          
                idDenmark             5.8969e-02  4.1479e-02  1.4217 0.1556887          
                idFinland            -1.9520e-02  2.3605e-02 -0.8270 0.4086139          
                idFrance             -2.2945e-02  2.3206e-02 -0.9887 0.3232198          
                idGermany            -3.0732e-02  2.3215e-02 -1.3238 0.1861138          
                idGreece             -3.1017e-02  2.3208e-02 -1.3365 0.1819462          
                idIreland            -1.5500e-02  2.3196e-02 -0.6682 0.5042778          
                idItaly              -2.1320e-02  2.3198e-02 -0.9190 0.3584750          
                idJapan              -5.6153e-04  2.3187e-02 -0.0242 0.9806879          
                idNetherlands        -7.7504e-03  2.3191e-02 -0.3342 0.7383585          
                idNewZealand          1.3521e-01  6.8198e-02  1.9827 0.0478959 *        
                idPortugal           -5.6151e-03  2.3833e-02 -0.2356 0.8138304          
                idSpain              -2.2840e-02  2.3202e-02 -0.9844 0.3253540          
                idSweden             -1.3717e-02  2.3192e-02 -0.5915 0.5544588          
                idSwitzerland         8.1206e-03  2.3223e-02  0.3497 0.7267075          
                idUnitedKingdom      -5.2769e-02  2.3247e-02 -2.2699 0.0235937 *        
                idUnitedStates       -1.4685e-02  2.3497e-02 -0.6250 0.5322466          
                time1991              4.1492e-02  1.7613e-01  0.2356 0.8138459          
                time1992             -8.3881e-03  1.7123e-01 -0.0490 0.9609475          
                time1993              3.1036e-03  1.6688e-01  0.0186 0.9851689          
                time1994              6.9054e-02  1.6929e-01  0.4079 0.6835023          
                time1995              6.2129e-02  1.5506e-01  0.4007 0.6888149          
                time1996              4.3151e-02  1.5291e-01  0.2822 0.7779010          
                time1997              4.4410e-02  1.5400e-01  0.2884 0.7731636          
                time1998              8.5842e-02  1.3479e-01  0.6368 0.5244877          
                time1999              6.0579e-02  1.3122e-01  0.4616 0.6445186          
                time2000              4.0880e-02  1.4539e-01  0.2812 0.7786822          
                time2001              5.8088e-02  1.5779e-01  0.3681 0.7129182          
                time2002              6.1598e-02  1.6017e-01  0.3846 0.7007044          
                time2003              6.0727e-02  1.3343e-01  0.4551 0.6492025          
                time2004              1.8384e-02  1.3915e-01  0.1321 0.8949359          
                time2005              6.2181e-02  1.4252e-01  0.4363 0.6627847          
                time2006             -8.9388e-03  1.4879e-01 -0.0601 0.9521179          
                time2007             -1.8998e-03  1.4247e-01 -0.0133 0.9893655          
                time2008             -4.6262e-02  1.5509e-01 -0.2983 0.7655938          
                time2009             -1.0048e-01  1.6334e-01 -0.6151 0.5387143          
                time2010              4.1050e-02  1.6384e-01  0.2506 0.8022525          
                time2011             -2.7762e-02  1.4507e-01 -0.1914 0.8483092          
                time2012             -4.1755e-03  1.5694e-01 -0.0266 0.9787838          
                time2013             -4.6143e-02  1.5400e-01 -0.2996 0.7645687          
                time2014             -7.7400e-02  1.4737e-01 -0.5252 0.5996514          
                time2015             -4.2015e-03  1.1178e-01 -0.0376 0.9700292          
                time2016             -1.5164e-02  1.6016e-01 -0.0947 0.9246046          
                time2017              4.7160e-03  1.7313e-01  0.0272 0.9782781          
                time2018             -4.5057e-02  2.0179e-01 -0.2233 0.8233945          
                time2019             -1.0006e-01  1.9164e-01 -0.5221 0.6017918          
                time2020             -1.6918e-01  2.0317e-01 -0.8327 0.4053739          
                time2021             -2.8586e-03  1.9272e-01 -0.0148 0.9881710          
                iis140                3.8987e-01  9.5848e-02  4.0675 5.440e-05 ***      
                iis170               -4.4483e-01  9.5375e-02 -4.6640 3.891e-06 ***      
                iis171                3.5058e-01  9.6730e-02  3.6242 0.0003164 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1997    -1.6291e-01  4.2889e-02 -3.7984 0.0001617 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.0982e-01  8.5570e-02 -3.6206 0.0003208 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  4.6717e-01  8.5570e-02  5.4595 7.211e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9981e-01  6.8953e-02 -4.3481 1.634e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -2.3443e-01  5.7242e-02 -4.0954 4.842e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.7172  1  0.009549 **       
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.2808  1 9.265e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09129      
                R-squared          0.35157      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  635.40302